Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

On Wednesday, May 31st the Philadelphia Phillies will be in the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets (7:10 PM EST, MLB Extra Innings/NBC Sports/SportsNet). The Phillies and Mets play their first game of the season on Tuesday, but New York went 14-5 (73.7%) against Philadelphia last season. Yet despite their dominance last year, the Mets are the underdogs in Wednesday’s matchup. The Phillies enter the game as -1.5 run favorites with a moneyline priced at -123, while the Mets are priced at +113. ESPN Analytics has this one nearly split 50/50 between these two division rivals, making Wednesday’s matchup a tough game to predict. 

The Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5; ML -123)

The Philadelphia Phillies clinched a Wild Card spot in the postseason last year after going 87-74, but in 2023, Philly is struggling. They are 25-28 (47.2%) and are 4th in the NL East, 9th in the National League, and 20th in the MLB. Philadelphia’s inability to consistently win has hindered the teams postseason chances, and after going 5-5 in their last 10 games, are being given a 40% chance to see the playoffs. Philadelphia is averaging a middling 4.3 runs per game, and have only played 3 games when scoring 10+ runs this season. They have a horrendous run differential (-38) and win less than 40% of the time on the road, yet according to the sportsbooks, the Phillies are expected to win on Wednesday.  

The New York Mets (+1.5; ML +113)

The New York Mets were arguably the most improved team last year, and after going 101-61 in 2022, they ended the season with 100+ wins for the first time since 1986. It was an incredible year for Mets fans, but unfortunately the team has regressed slightly and are projected to finish the current season at 84-78. The Mets are 27-27 (50.0%) and unless something changes, will be hard pressed to reach the postseason. New York is 3rd in the NL East, 7th in the National League, and 17th in the MLB. Unlike last year, the Mets aren’t demonstrating their worth and rank amongst the middle-of-the-pack in nearly every statistical metric, leaving little to distinguish themselves from the competition.   

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

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Phillies vs. Mets: Season Stats

Phillies vs. Mets: Betting Trends

Philadelphia Phillies

• 23-30 record ATS
• 13-16 record ATS on the ROAD
• 11-22 record ATS versus the NL
• 23-26-4 O/U record
• 5-3-2 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 17-17 as FAVORITES 
• 6-7 as FAVORITES on the ROAD

New York Mets

• 19-35 record ATS
• 7-14 record ATS at HOME
• 17-25 record ATS versus the NL
• 26-27-1 O/U record
• 6-4 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 6-8 as UNDERDOGS
• 3-2 as UNDERDOGS at HOME

Phillies vs. Mets: Starting Pitcher Comparison

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

Take the New York Mets to beat Philadelphia on Wednesday. This one is a bit of a toss-up, but I like the Mets because they score more, allow fewer runs, and have a respectable record at home. The Phillies on the other hand often struggle on the road, winning just 37.9% of their away games. Philadelphia averages 5.0 runs against per game, and 5.9 runs against per game on the road, and although the Phillies average more hits per game (8.8 hits) than New York (8.2 hits), the Mets score more often and hit more home runs. Take the Mets at home against the floundering Phillies on Wednesday. 

Prediction: New York Mets Moneyline (+113)

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