Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

The Minnesota Twins will take on the Houston Astros on Wednesday, May 31st in the final matchup of their 3-game series (8:10 PM EST, Bally Sports/AT&T Sports Net/MLB Extra Innings). The Twins won 7-5 over the Astros on Monday in a thrilling 10-inning game. Minnesota recorded 14 hits and jumped out to an early 4-0 lead, but gave up 4 runs in the 7th, and trailed 4-5 heading into the 9th. But the Twins managed to tie the game at the top of the inning, forcing extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers sent one over the wall for a 2-run shot on the first pitch of the innings against Astros closer Bryan Abreu, which ultimately became the game winning play, and Houston’s demise. 

The Minnesota Twins (+1.5; ML +110)

Last season, the Minnesota Twins finished 6 games below .500 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive year. This season, the Twins are 28-26 (.519) and have a 72% chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Minnesota is 1st in the AL Central, 8th in the American League, and 12th in the MLB. They had a great start to the season, winning 10 out of their first 14 games, but have since hit a small slump, going 4-6 in their last 10. However, against the Astros the Twins have been great, going 3-1 versus Houston while averaging 5.0 runs per game, but Minnesota can struggle on the road, which is why they are the underdogs in Wednesday’s matchup.

The Houston Astros (-1.5; ML -130)

The MLB’s reigning World Series champions are currently 31-22 (58.5%), and after a slow start to the season, are looking strong once again. The Astros went 7-3 in their last 10 games, and although they lost on Monday to the Twins, Houston made it a game. Jose Altuve has returned from injury, and on Monday night against Minnesota, the 5’ 6” second baseman hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 7th to put the Astros up 5-4. Houston lost the game, but feel confident moving forward with Altuve back in the lineup. The Astros averaged 4.8 runs per game in their last 10, but they lead the MLB with the fewest runs allowed (188), so if Houston can get the bats going on Wednesday, the Twins could be in trouble.  

Twins vs. Astros Odds

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Twins vs. Astros: Season Stats

Twins vs. Astros: Betting Trends

Minnesota Twins

• 27-27 record ATS
• 13-13 record ATS on the ROAD
• 19-17 record ATS versus the AL
• 23-27-4 O/U record
• 4-6 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 8-15 as UNDERDOGS 
• 5-9 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD

Houston Astros

• 27-26 record ATS
• 11-15 record ATS at HOME
• 18-17 record ATS versus the AL
• 26-26-1 O/U record
• 4-6 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 23-18 as FAVORITES
• 12-12 as FAVORITES at HOME

Twins vs. Astros: Starting Pitcher Comparison

Twins vs. Astros Prediction

Take the Astros to beat the Twins on Wednesday. Houston has been inconsistent at home, but narrowly won on Monday even after giving up 14 hits. Jose Altuve’s grand slam was the game changer the Astros needed, and while an Altuve grand slam is rare, Houston has a lineup loaded with players capable of making game changing plays. Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena have combined for 22 home runs, and Alex Bergman and Kyle Tucker remain two of the best hitters in baseball. But the Minnesota Twins are no joke, and through the first 50 games, have hit 20 more home runs than the Astros, with Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo combining for 21 alone. Additionally, the Twins are allowing the 2nd-fewest total runs (203), trailing Houston by 15, so I expect Minnesota to keep it close, but I like the Astros to take the win on Wednesday because of their superior defense.  

Prediction: Houston Astros Moneyline (-200)

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