WNBA Finals: New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces, Game 2

by Sam Batz

When: Wednesday, October 11th at 9:00 PM EST 

Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Watch On: ESPN

Match Predictor (Win-Probability): New York Liberty (33.5%); Las Vegas Aces (66.5%)

The WNBA Finals are here. Representing the Eastern Conference is the New York Liberty, and representing the Western Conference is the Las Vegas Aces. The Liberty are competing in their 4th finals all-time but they have never won a championship. The Aces are making the franchise’s 3rd finals appearance all-time, as they look to repeat as champions after winning the title in 2022. The Liberty entered the series as underdogs and will remain the underdogs for Game 2. The Aces were the top team in the WNBA this season, and are fully expected to repeat as champions. 

The New York Liberty (5-2; +180)

The New York Liberty were the best team in the East. They finished with a 32-8 record, going 15-5 at home and 17-3 on the road. The Liberty have a talented roster, from 3-point sensation Sabrina Ionescu to the 2023 WNBA MVP Breanna Stewart. It was Stewart’s 2nd time winning the MVP, and she is now the only WNBA player to win the award on two different teams. New York will look to Ionescu and Stewart to lead the Liberty against the highly skilled, imposing, and experienced Las Vegas Aces.

The Las Vegas Aces (6-0; -218)

The Las Vegas Aces were the best team in the WNBA this season. The Aces finished with the best record in the league at 34-6, going 19-1 at home and 15-5 on the road. The Aces are 6-0 in the playoffs, and in Game 1 of the Finals they beat the Liberty 99-82. Vegas is loaded with talented players, and when you look at their roster, it’s no wonder the Aces led the league in scoring. A’ja Wilson leads the team with 24.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, while a cast of top-notch guards (Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, and Chelsea Gray) conduct the offense.   

Liberty vs. Aces: Odds

If you take the New York Liberty Moneyline (+180): You can bet $100 to profit $180, for a total payout of $280, if the Liberty win.  

If you take the Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-218): You can risk $218 to win $100, for a total payout of $318, if the Aces win. 

If you take the  New York Liberty to Cover the Spread (-110): You can risk $110 to win $100, for a total payout of $210, if the Liberty win the game or lose by less than 5 points.  

If you take the Las Vegas Aces to Cover the Spread (-110): You can risk $110 to win $100, for a total payout of $210, if the Aces win the game by at least 5 points.

Liberty vs. Aces: Postseason Stats

Liberty vs. Aces: Betting Trends (Entire Season)

New York Liberty

• 20-21 record ATS
• 10-11 record ATS on the ROAD
• 23-18 O/U record
• 11-10 O/U record on the ROAD 
• 31-6 as FAVORITES 
• 2-2 as UNDERDOGS 

Las Vegas Aces 

• 21-20 record ATS
• 13-8 record ATS at HOME
• 24-17 O/U record
• 9-12 O/U record at HOME
• 34-6 as FAVORITES
• 0-1 as UNDERDOGS

Liberty vs. Aces Prediction

Take the New York Liberty to cover the spread. The Aces may be the better team based on records, but during the regular season the Liberty beat Vegas several times. New York can shoot the 3-ball extremely well, and if they’re on, the Liberty are tough to beat. Sabrina Ionescu had a rough Game 1, and I’m anticipating a bounce-back performance from the WNBA’s three-point champion. The Aces Big 4 (Wilson, Plum, Gray, and Young) combined for 91 of Vegas’ 99 points, and New York will need to do a better job of locking at least one of them down in order to have a chance to even the series. However, win or lose, the Liberty will keep it close in Game 2.  

Prediction: New York Liberty to Cover the Spread (+5)

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