NFL Wild Card Review For the Weekend – Bet the Edge Start.

Alright Tommy D’s back here. It is Friday. It is January 14, 2022. We got a really big show coming today we got a full house. This is the NFL wildcard show.

We’re gonna be going over a bunch of games for Saturday and Sunday. And we got a special guest here. Kenny Edwards direct from Sin City, Las Vegas. He’s going to chime in and he has a lot of experience in this business. So as usual, we got Scott Matthews and we got Dre Fernandez. Just a couple of things.

This show is brought to you by online sports betting calm. We appreciate your support here. If you want to see more of this and our daily videos, just subscribe to this channel online sports bet. And if you like what you see here we are putting out a real good effort lately. Give us a little support give us a big like I the format’s going to be this we’re going to go over three games for Saturday and Sunday, then each cap is going to talk about a best bet. And we’re going to also be talking about some NFL props. But let me get right to our distinguished guests here. We got Dre Fernandez.

He writes for online sports bet.com We got Mr. Scott Matthews at SM sports pics, and we brought in Mr. Kenny Edwards from winners only last fake lv.com So we got a full house here. Gentlemen, how’s everyone doing tonight?

Great guys. Look, if

you woke up, he’s alive. He’s doing better than ever.

Had a big Thursday.

All right, Dr. Dre is always having big days guys. We’re gonna try to cover as much as we can here. But we do release premium plays on our website, online sports betting calm. The other guests will announce where you can get their premium plays as well. So let’s get right into it. We got wildcard weekend here. I mean, this is all for all the marbles right now people are going to go home and play golf and some are going to continue to the playoffs here. We’re going to be talking about the Vegas Bengals game on Saturday, we’re going to be looking at the Eagles bucks. And we’re going to be looking at the Cowboys San Francisco game.

Alright, just one thing that came up here, I posted some Super Bowl odds. Right now Vegas has one team what where they stand as far as winning the Super Bowl. I mean, there’s a lot I’m just going to quickly go over this list. And I want you guys to chime in if you think there’s any value here and any dark horses. I mean packers of course have favorite. They’re like plus three at chiefs plus 450 bucks plus 715. And you got the Bengals 70 No one, Pat’s 22 to one. Eagles. 55. The one Tennessee, eight and a half the one Dallas 11 and one Steelers. 92 one Vegas 55. The one nine is 21 to one guy, you just want to kick chime in see you think anyone is there? Is there any long shots you’d look at, at this point?

Want to stalk him? Well,

I’m looking at you know, the the Super Bowl and of course everybody’s on, I guess. Aaron Rodgers you know, Green Bay? Um, you know, I don’t think Kansas City is the same team they were last year so I definitely don’t give them much value. I don’t think they’re going to go that far in these playoffs. But uh, and of all the games out there and all the teams out there. I think you have to really really, I mean, a lot of people don’t go against me, but Tennessee could be a real dark horses you.

Yeah, because they got a lot of players coming back into the lineup right now.

And with that big, that big running back coming back, it’s going to definitely help them out. So I got to lean a little bit towards Tennessee is going to be tough.

They’ve had the experience to have been in these big games over the last few years. So I think you might have a right little call deal with Tennessee. Maybe coaching

coaching is important. I mean, Mike, he’s a he’s a great coach. Players love playing for him. I mean, uh, you know, he doesn’t get rattled on the sidelines. If you ever watch him. He’s just He’s smooth. He’s good. He’s cool. That can be down like they were what a year or so ago by a bunch of points. They just come back they just keep fighting the home they got, you know, home field advantage throughout the whole playoffs. I think they can be tough. Yeah,

well, eight and a half to one that’s that’s a nice little return tray. How about you want to pick on this list?

I’m gonna stick with my pre my preseason Superbowl pick was the Buffalo Bills and I still think they’ve got a pretty good shot and I’m going to stick with them. All right, well, the bills are gonna be playing in frail house this weekend.

Yeah, I know this guy I knew you’re gonna say they can play in an Eskimo, whether it’s gonna be like one degrees so I guess they’re used to it so let’s see what happens though anybody’s used to playing in one degree weather What do you think can I mean I think I just spoke to Bill Belichick and he’s going to try to only throw two passes this game he said, You know, so I mean he said he went for threes and go for two this time so but the worst the weather is, I think it favors on New England just so you know, because buffalo, they have that strong passing game. And I don’t know if the weather’s really really bad. The worst the weather is, the better it is for doing that, I feel.

Alright, let’s see how that pans out. What before we get to our selections, I just wanted to talk and Kenny is based in Vegas, he’s been out there 20 years, Kenny is a professional sports bettor. Alright. And I just want to get his insight and Scott does frequent Vegas a lot as well. And Dre is welcome to chime in as well. Who’s your go to book Kenny, when you play in Vegas? Where do you play? What what sports book do you like gives you the best odds best service? Or who would you say is your go to book

I don’t have I don’t have one favorite book, I just I go by the line. So it’s always the best line of it could be the win. It could be over at MGM. I think from all the homework I’ve done, I think cerca has the sharpest line, you have to give them a lot of respect, not early in the week. But as the game is coming close to kickoff, maybe the last 45 minutes, if they move with that game, you got to really give them a lot of respect. And be careful because they’re there. They take big bets man, you know, you can walk in there, you don’t have to be a name player. And you can just put 100,000 $200,000 A game they’ll take anything. So a book like that taking that kind of action has to be pretty sharp. Makes sense?

I hear circuit does cater to shops. I recently was at a betting conference in Jersey.

And I’m not going to mention names but there are guys that are out on Twitter that was they’re well respected guys. And they say Soccer is the one book that will not shy away from any bad will take any size wager will take sharp action versus a lot of other places will not let certain people actually place bets. So circa here is the one where you can go and and basically get a get anything out. Have you seen books limit you? Kenny in the past? I mean, are there books that will limit a certain person?

Um, I’ve never been limited because I don’t I don’t bet like that, you know that that kind of money to be you know, truthful with you. But I mean, I’ve been cut off by books here, just for small events, you know. So, taking action in Vegas, for these hotels is not like it used to be. I mean, like even in baseball now and you they don’t even want your action. You know, everything is so small. They move lines on you quickly. There’s books like you’ll give a play and they’ll hold the ticket back and there’s Oh, sorry, the game is out four and a half instead of four. There’s all kinds of shenanigans that go on. I mean, I guess Southpoint and circa those are the two main books in Las Vegas now.

I heard that’s the case from from a standpoint and you know, I’ve kind of dabbled on both sides in this industry. Baseball is a dangerous sport. There’s no two ways about it. Books can be beaten baseball shops do make money in baseball, especially playing underdogs. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens either you guys want to chime in dry. I know you’re not a big Vegas guy. I know you dabble offshore. You want to just throw in your two cents on this one.

I mean, I’m just I’m waiting for it to come to Florida.

Well, you might be an old man and I’ll probably I’ll just be a thought at that point. Yeah, I’m up top on this. The in the I shouldn’t say the Indian seminars messed up with the governor. They try to push this through. It’s not gonna happen. They’re trying to get signatures here. They’re short like 700,000 You may not see mobile betting in Florida it for four or five years actually, they’re gonna have to put in through a state vote. Northern Florida probably is not going to vote yes, they never did vote for casino action in Florida. So you may see walking action at the Seminole Hard Rock. Mobile is something that may not happen for a long, long time in Florida, Scott any any thoughts? I know you’re a big Vegas guy.

Well, I can, I can only tell you from past experience to have myself and I used to put some serious money down back in the day, I used to have to go Believe it or not to get about 30,000 or $40,000 down on a game, I’d have to go to about 10 different hotels back in the day, because they would only let you play 2000 In this place, what 3000 You know that you’d have to move around, I used to take a limo and go from one place to another from Caesars to this hotel to that it took me almost four hours to get down bets of 30,000.

This is going back home, you know, about 20 years ago. So it’s obviously a different animal. Now, like Ken says, There’s books out there. Nowadays, it’ll take the big money, you go into one place and put 100,000 or $200,000 down on a game if you’re a serious player. But I remember the days where they limited you.

I mean, especially if they didn’t know you were going on one thing like I’m an established player in a lot of casinos in Vegas can those, you know my track record of going out there because we always hook up when we when I come out to Vegas. But you know, if you’re a casino player and you’re established deal with credit lines, you obviously they’re gonna accommodate you, they’ll take a big play, I could probably go into when or Caesars or Bellagio or you know, area, and I can move serious money because they know me already as a casino customer. But if you’re just walking in off the streets, you know it, they probably would limit you.

I don’t know, Ken, if they loosen that up, but if you if your unknown player out there, obviously, you know, they think you’re shoplet I don’t think they’re gonna let you just go in there, crush them for a big amount of money. Maybe I’m wrong.

Maybe they’ve changed that. But I know back in the day, they would limit you like very low limits on games.

Yeah, I agree. I mean, that they’re not going to let anybody just come in and take advantage of me, I’ve moved some money over to win. And they have a lot of respect for me over there. And they move the line a lot on once I make a play over there, they’ll move it, you know, I have a point probably, I would say 80% of the time. It’s always like, hey, who you like today like today? These days? I just walk in there. Just look at some things, you know, and, uh, you know, once I make the play, I mean, they move us for instance, you know, even this past week and national championship game.

Who do you like, and I’ve been pretty hot in, you know, called championship games. And I love Georgia. You know, everything didn’t make sense to me about that game. I mean, just a month ago, they were six and a half point favorites. And now they’re coming in like a two and a half three point favorite. Yeah, Alabama did beat them. But what changes so I came in pretty heavy on the money line. I figured I had a lot of value on it. And as soon as I bet it right there, boom, they just went right up. I laid 140 As soon as I put my money down, they made it 150. So you know, they respect my my opinion. Of course. You’re not always right. You have your days that you don’t do well. But at the end of the year, I’m on top.

That’s all the matters.

That’s all that matters. Let’s get to the first game here gentlemen. We’re going to be looking at a game Saturday. It’s going to be the Vegas Cincy game that playing in Cincinnati game kicks at 430 Eastern right now the Bengals five and a half point favorite at home. Total 48 and a half. I looked at the betting action it looks like it’s pretty much split down the middle 5050 Let’s start with you, Dre. What do you what are you looking at on this one?

Yeah, I mean first of all, you guys got to watch these podcasts last last Park as I went for for for I gave you the under in the Arizona Game I gave you Wisconsin minus two and a half and I gave you the I gave you the bucks and then I gave you Memphis minus four last night. You guys got to watch these podcasts. But for this game, I really don’t like anything about it. To be honest. I don’t like any of these lines here. So I’m actually gonna I’m actually gonna take something I usually don’t do here and I don’t recommend you guys do usually but I’m going to take a teaser. I’m going to take the Raiders plus 11 and a half and the over-under let’s get it to the sake the over 42 and a half the bangles are 17 points per game the raiders and the Bengals are six and seventh and passing yards per game.

I mean I just think that I think this is a pretty safe teaser my opinion. The bangles are oh and eight oh straight up and oh seven and one against the spread in the playoffs since 1991. So I mean I think the Raiders can keep this game close. I don’t want any like backdoor coverage. So I’m gonna take the teaser but the Raiders are hot. They won four in a row. Everyone knows Atlanta fall you just need to be hard at the right time to win. Another thing a big thing for me in this game is the Raiders are eighth in pass block win rate while the Bengals offensive line is ranked 30th in pass block, win rate and 30 seconds sacks allowed to do burrow. So I think the guys like Max Crosby can get after him there. And I think the bangles will win the game but not by more than 12.

All right, interesting strategy teaser on that one. Scott, let’s move on to you bangle.

Dre, who you’re teaching it to.

I’m teasing it to Raiders plus 11 and a half and the over 42 and a half.

Oh, in the same game is bringing the Vegas line up and the top the total line down. Okay. Got one. What do you think Scott? That goes five and a half total 48 and a half?

Well, I know. I know Ken, he’s gonna you know, he’s got a much more insight on on that Vegas team more so probably than all of us combined. Because he’s out there. And he’s, you know, he gets the word out there on the Raiders, probably better than anybody. But I’m looking at this game from one standpoint and one standpoint, let’s look at weapons. This kid Joe burrow is the real deal. This guy he didn’t play last week. He rested. Obviously. They rested a lot of players so you can’t throw last week’s game altogether.

It doesn’t matter. Before that. Look what this guy’s doing. He’s throwing for over 1000 yards. He’s picking apart defenses like crazy. I don’t think the rate is secondary can handle someone like this guy. He is a major weapon. He is the real deal. I think he’s got ice in his veins. So I don’t think the pressure is going to faze him. These teams have not been playoff teams obviously. So you can’t really go by that both of these teams don’t have much playoff experience. Derek Carr has actually has absolutely been the rally cry behind the Raiders. Obviously the inspiration for this team after Jon Gruden and all these issues have happened to keep the players together. But I’m looking at this game from a standpoint of weapons and a home field advantage. You got Mixon the running games can be tough with that passing game, and Jamal Chase. I mean, this guy’s a monster. I just don’t think the Raiders have the weapons that Cincinnati is going to bring and I think Joe burrow is going to come out firing. And I just think that the way they’re going into this game right now with the home field, and that crowd is going to go absolutely crazy. Which is going to be tough for the Raiders obviously playing in a hostile environment.

I think Cincinnati is going to roll in this game I just got a feeling that they’re going to win this game by at least seven to 14 points. I just see them getting the job done. I think they’re going to rally around borrow and this team could go far in the playoffs don’t count this team out. This is one of the surprising teams out there because when you have a quarterback a quarterback like this guy that’s finding ways to throw fits you know 300 400 500 yards it makes it very difficult to defend against the guy like this with the weapons he has the only thing the only downside about them is that defense is suspect to you know obviously allowing points but I think they’ll get by the Raiders because of the inexperience of the Raiders being in the playoffs and I think the home home-field advantage in a way borrows playing right now what is weapons Bill cover the spread all right Kenny right from Vegas Bengals five and a half old on the 48 and a half what’s your take?

Well on the game itself between the rays and the Bengals I don’t have an opinion really at all to be honest with you. I mean if there’s any decent bet that you might have a shot I go over one in the DWIs you know there’s a good shot between now and the game there’ll be another couple of guys getting pulled off BWI, but besides that I don’t I don’t think I like it off on that right. Is there a couple of guys were out drinking already last night before they left Cincinnati is that a big party? I guess you could find a party anywhere it’s on but here’s the thing in the first round of playoffs usually usually yet the underdog a lot more dogs winning than the favorites and then the following week when the team’s had to buy the favorite choose to come in and do okay. So if I’m if I had to put anything down on this game, because both quarterbacks do like to throw the ball I would probably say I would like to go over the total you know uh, then again we don’t know how bad the weather might be you know come game time, but I don’t know I mean everything on paper says Cincinnati. You never know what the Raiders Raiders not that terrible on the road. But I don’t know I don’t like the game and I don’t think I’ll be doing anything on this game.

All right, well, sometimes you got to pass if you don’t like something it’s better to pass than just take a shot. Let let’s move on to the Sunday game. This one Interesting bucks with Brady against the Eagles pretty big number right now tampers nine nine and a half in Tampa Bay total 45 and a half I look the public was a moron tamper about 57% seem to be going on tamper I guess that Jason the big number and Brady Dre, let’s go back to you. Who do you like in this one?

Yeah, so my line actually moved down to eight and a half here. So I’m still gonna take the Eagles eight and a half year especially with the public on Tampa and them so moving that line down. I mean, to me the playoffs are run one on the ground. The Eagles are first in running the ball. They’re 100 average 160 yards per game. The bucks are 26 averaging 98.4. We know Godwin is out Levante David is going to be a game time decision on it looks like four nets gonna be back. I think we just got an update on that that he’s going to play. But I still think the Eagles can can you know, control this game on the ground? I don’t think they win the game. But I think they do cover. And um, we saw last year, Brady had trouble with with the Washington football team last year was 3123. So obviously the books didn’t get off to a good start in the playoff there and then they weren’t at all. So I’m gonna take the Eagles plus eight and a half.

Interesting, you’re gonna be going against the public plus the points. Scott. I know who are you you have studied Brady over the years. What do you think?

Oh, how?

You know I’ve been how can you go against Tom Brady, because when you go against them, you lose when you go with them at times. It’s just he just you know it is what it is with Tom Brady, but they’re getting there. They’re getting some weapons back now with fernet is that’s going to open up a real good opportunity for Brady to move the ball around. Going koskie is definitely going to be a big weapon.

And, and obviously now Gronkowski is going to get a lot of attention. But they got a couple other key players that Brady’s listen Brady brings the best not anybody he could take guys like us and turn us into soup. household names. That’s what this guy is famous for doing. He is just that good era. Anyone that plays for this guy wants obviously to give their all from. And this is a tough game. I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really have a strong opinion on the game. I feel obviously Tampa is going to advance they’re going to find a way to win the game.

I don’t know if they’re going to go out and just blow this team out because like Dre said, The Eagles running attack could keep them in the game because Tampa Bay has had problems with running running attacks. But I feel somehow some way that Tampa Bay obviously will find a way to get through this week one of the playoffs and move on. I think they play the Green Bay next week, if I’m not mistaken, if they win this game.

So I definitely think Brady wants to have that big, big time rematch with Aaron Rodgers once again. But I think this games can be a closer game. I don’t really have a strong opinion on this play. So I’m kind of take a stance on it. But if I was putting a little money into the game, I’d probably take the dog close the points, I would probably buy this line up to about nine, nine and a half. Even though it’s about eight and a half, I probably go up to about nine and a half on the game nine, nine and a half. Just to make give myself a little more security. And I think 10 You know Tampa will win the game. But again, this is a very light play for me. That bet against Tom Brady. Just too good.

All right, Kenny, what’s your take on this one? You know, you delay the points, you take the point to like the total anything first half, maybe what do you think, Scott? If you’re gonna buy it from eight and a half to nine, and you might as well just go all the way and bite the 10 Matt, you know, true. You’re right. Um, I don’t know, you know, in this game here, if again, not a strong opinion, but I like the first half. I like Philadelphia, the first half. I think Brady, Tampa. They get going in the second half. I mean, if you notice even last week, they played Carolina Tampa Bay, they struggled a little bit and then they came out the second half and they just blew him out of the water. Right. It seems like that’s been like Brady, I guess maybe a little bit of age takes him a couple of quarters to loosen up. Gronk a little loose. A little urgency. So I think if Philadelphia they’re gonna come out flying high, for sure. They’re gonna be intense. And I think it’s gonna take a little time for Tampa Bay to wear him down. But how much will they wear him down? That’s yet to be seen. So I think I like Philadelphia. First half. Take the points.

All right. We’re gonna look at a second game on Sunday. Cowboys San Fran in Dallas. Cowboys, three and a half points totals. 51. Let’s go back to Dre What do you like your drive and actions about sport once again right now? 5050 Yeah, I love the plus three and a half and I love the over in this game, the 40 Niners are 13th in scoring the Cowboys are first. The Cowboys just put up 56 and 51 and two of their last three games. And over their last seven games, the Cowboys are averaging almost 34 points, a game 40 Niners and talking about the close three here they won for their last five. They beat the Bengals and the Rams over that time span and the Cowboys defense has been struggling it’s past lately 20 against the past. I think that the 40 Niners are built for the playoffs in terms of how they run the ball and their defense are the seventh in the NFL in rushing legend Mitchell is the eighth leading rusher in the NFL even though he missed three games. And I love how they use debo Samuel out of the backfield. I mean, he had a passing coach talk last week when Jimmy D was struggling to throw the football. So I think this over is gonna hit and I think the 40 Niners are gonna keep either lose by field or win this game.

Scott, what do you think? Can the boys pull it off at home or they do go with the Niners? Well, this is an interesting game.

I really liked this game actually a lot because you got a very physical team on both sides of the ball with the 49 is they are tough team.

They’re coached tough. Kyle Shanahan knows what he’s doing. Here’s how I look at this game. Who do you trust? What system? Do you trust more trust, Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco team, or do you trust Mike McCarthy? In the Dallas Cowboys? I think there’s a big edge on this game because I’m looking at some numbers here. It’s it’s quite amazing. San Francisco was seven and Oh, straight up and against the spread in the month of January on the game. So last seven, that’s damn strong. The Cowboys are known for falling apart in the month of January, that one and six against the spread and their last seven. I mean, that’s not going to be my deciding factor. But Trent Williams coming back is gonna is a big factor. He didn’t play last week, he could open up that running game even more, because he’s such a great weapon on the offensive line. So there’s a lot of factors in this game. I like Jimmy G. I think he’s a steady quarterback. He makes you know, he makes some mistakes at times. But I think he can manage a game extremely well. I think Shanahan knows exactly what he’s walking into Mike McCarthy. You see, he makes mistakes, sometimes coaching. I mean, yes, the Cowboys have this weapons on both sides of these teams, major weapons.

There’s no doubt about it from the offensive side to the defensive side. But based on things I see, and I’m a numbers guy, and this line is three. I think if Dallas was right, they would open up about four, four and a half. I know that one point, you know, but it is it is a big difference between opening up listen, if they’re going to move it up and move it down. That’s another story. But I’m talking about opening up a number. I think if Dallas was right, they would have came out of solid for four and a half. In this particular game. I just think San Francisco’s the play. I have a funny feeling they’re going to get the job done. They got upset Dallas, everyone was talking about Dallas but Dallas doesn’t seem to get through when it comes to playoff time. I think the 40 Niners can definitely take advantage of it with the with the with the physical team. I like San Fran and this game by that line of plus four points, guys. I’m a numbers guy I look for value. I would jump on it and plus four.

All right, Kenny, what’s your take care cowboy San Fran? Maybe a halftime maybe a total hoodie, like, well, this happens to be my playoff game game this weekend. This is a game that I’m not going to release on your pod but the people can go to win is only LV I have a strong opinion been betting the game all week. Been looking for different sides.

Why I like the side I like and I don’t I don’t think I’m gonna have much of a problem. This game. I think this is gonna be one of the easiest games, almost like some of the other games I’ve had this year. And I don’t I don’t go all out on a game. But this Dallas San Francisco game is one of the games that I happen like a lot and a lot of things are pointing to the team that I am going with showing that I am on the right side but like anything, it takes out one little fumble and deception or whatever that can turn the whole tide on a game but I feel very very comfortable. And you know you’ll be hearing about this release here. I’m starting tomorrow. And I think that come next week. You guys will be believers.

Yeah, you know game like this if both these teams so physical but San Francisco so physical. I don’t know which way Ken’s leaning obviously but definitely when you have physical teams like this Could they they definitely could make mistakes.

And those key turnovers could be a big difference on what and the direction. So I’m banking more that San Francisco’s scheme is going to give them that chance to get that key mistake, too. And give them that deciding edge. That’s what I’m looking at overall in this game, that that’s why I like the 49 is a lot because I think they’ll be much more prepared physically, on the defensive side and the offensive side that Dallas will make a key mistake that’s going to give San Francisco a gift, which is going to be the difference probably, of winning and losing that, that game.