NFL Prediction – Week 16

All right, welcome back, everyone. You got Tommy D here. This is Tuesday, December 28. And we’re back with our podcast bet the edge. We’re going to be talking about a lot of things today, namely college bowl games that are coming up. This show is brought to you by online sports betting calm. And let me get right into it and introduce my esteemed co hosts. We have Scott Matthews from SM sports picks. And we have Dre Fernandez from online sports bet.com Fellas, what’s up?

How you doing Tommy? Drag butts off. I mean, you guys ready to battle a lot?

I got my I got my shields on guys. So let’s let’s Yeah, we got the balls here. I mean, a couple of bowl games have been canceled. Let’s hope that there are no more games canceled. But this COVID stuff is still out there all the hanging so it’s it’s really a day by day thing. But we think we have three games here that we’re gonna we’re going to talk about here. Just a quick recap. I’m sure you watched that dolphin game last night eight. You got to give the dolphins credit. They were written off first part of the year. What did they start at one and seven Dre now they’re playoff contenders. I mean we are down here in Miami. So hey, finally we got a team that’s has some glimmer of hope you think they could continue to stray a lot?

Yeah, we made it all the way back from the from the trenches. You got the shirt off.

We were written off we were like throwing on hospice. I hate to use that term. But we were on a layout. I mean God the first team in NFL history to win seven straight and lose seven straight in the same season.

Yep. Pretty amazing. Actually. They started out the first game of the year beating the England New England was going to go into score to to win the game. They have the ball gaming hairs going then it was seven straight. And then they come back now and win seven straight. They got a dolphins got a double Christmas.

They got to Christmas with their families on the 25th Celebrating Christmas with their families and they got a Christmas gift last night because over 22 players from New Orleans we’re out of the lineup and we started basically a college quarterback almost against that dolphin defense so the dolphins got a gift what a gift they got last night on that on that Monday night actually back on Monday on that Monday night game and you know just couldn’t they couldn’t even get a first down the wallets I think they got like two first downs the whole game was like crazy.

Dolphins minus three was free money seem that way then.

There you go. Let’s let’s see if they could continue the free money this week. The remaining two games here. I mean NHL supposed to come back they say tonight who the hell knows what’s gonna happen with that? Let’s hope that they can you know get back and get some hockey going here. One other thing I mean, just that caught my eye on that Sunday night game Dallas totally annihilating the skins those two guys on the bench for Washington actually starting to go at it. That’s when you know frustrations kicked in. When two players are actually looking to fight each other but actually they were buddies to they were but they called the college ball together.

And and I believe that they blown it off since I guess frustrations could get anyone the best of anyone, of course. I mean, they got embarrassed on national TV. Yep. So I guess it’s uncalled for but stuff happens. I find what each other than fighting with their girlfriends or their wives. Right. So that that’s a whole nother to each other those two. Yeah, that’s a whole nother subject for another day here.

If you’re tuning into the show for the first time, first of all, we appreciate the support. If you want to be updated every time we come on a new broadcast, just subscribe. You’ll see the button above every time we come on a new podcast, you’ll be notified in addition, we do put out daily videos. So the channel is online sports bat and you could give us a little support. Hit that like button. We appreciate all the support. I we’re going to get into a couple of bowl games. Let’s get right to it. There’s a game tomorrow Wednesday, Clemson Iowa State, the cheez it bowl What the hell is the cheese it ball is not a cracker or something.

What what is cheese?

That’s a cracker, I believe. Yep.

Yeah. snack crackers.

They’re paying a lot of money to get that name out there. Clemson, Iowa State Clemson one and a half total 44 A Dre you want to start with this one what do you see on this one?

Yeah, I’m gonna take Clemson minus one here. I’m seeing well Clemson kind of fell off the face of the earth after they got killed by Georgia and not ever kind of forgot about them but they’ve actually played pretty well this season. They’ve won their last five I believe or seven and seven of their last eight after losing to Georgia and then losing 20 Stay and they were they were in the in the trenches there for a second, but Dabo Swinney has gotten this team back on track.

Arizona state’s headed in the opposite direction. They’re not doing too hot right now. And I just think this game, I will I will state my but I was states going to lose this game, especially young, it’s only one point. I’m also excuse me, also the Clemson we’re seeing that Clemson has lost their their two offensive or their offensive coordinator and the defensive coordinator. But I think they’re strong enough to overcome that. Near giving me only a point here. So and I’m also seeing some reverse line movement that the public is betting Iowa State yet Clemson’s line went up half a point. So I’m gonna take Clemson minus one here.

Alright, Clemson minus one. Scott, what do you think cheez it bowl or who you who you’re looking at?

Trey? You’re making a big mistake, buddy. Big mistake and this one I got I got this is almost like the other day on the ballgame when I told you Florida wouldn’t How could they get motivated to play in a game before you know Christmas even against a team? Well, here’s the same scenario. Dabo Swinney is and his crew is used to playing in big time bowl games. This to me is not a big time bowl game. And this Iowa State team, let me tell you don’t overlook them.

They’ve been in every game they played probably except against Iowa, Iowa did handle them. They won 27, the 17. But they never had a shot in that game. Other than that, even the games they’ve lost this year, have they been it, they just ended the season on a big no win it big time. And I think based on what I’m seeing, and the number on this game, and the fact is that you got to get motivated to play in these bowl games. When you’re down for four weeks, you know, three and a half to four and a half weeks before you play again. And you’re not playing in the games you’re used to playing Clemson is used to playing in the biggest bowl games, especially over the last five, six years to go in and play the cheez it bowl game. To me. I like Iowa State in this game. The number on this game is right for the dog. I’m a numbers guy. I look at everything that goes into it. I think Iowa State will cause fits for them with the defense. And I believe there’ll be mistakes made by Clemson. Yes, you’re right. They won seven either last day, five in a row. Blue outs South Carolina last game 30 enough in the stroyed Wake Forest who was playing really well prior to that 40 Was it 48 To 27 to 47 to 28 won easily. But this is not all that guys, this is a bowl game. And this is about motivation. And this is about a lay off. Take the dog guys plus the one and a half. I’d even buy it up to two. The line is one and a half. I buy it up to plus two not I’m worried about it, but the dog is alive in this game.

Well, someone will be right. I wish you both the best of luck on that one. Let’s let’s move on to a Thursday game. This is more of an old school old game the peach ball. You got Michigan State playing pit current line Spartans minus two and a half but believe the line has moved all over on this one as well. But right now they’re minus two and a half total 56. Dre What do you think?

Yeah, so this game we’re seeing that now Michigan or PE open as a favorite. And now Michigan State is the favorite because can you pick it? Pitch Qb and probably a first round pick opted out but Kenneth Walker also opted out for Michigan State. So Michigan State’s minus two and a half here. I just think it’s for me both. Both teams best offensive players have been ruled out. So I would sprinkle the under but the main play is going to be the Michigan State Spartans minus two and a half because with what’s bigger here, a quarterback or running back basically is what I’m looking at here. It’s a quarterback obviously, can you pick as driven this team into the bowl season hardnesses They’re kind of our big, like the first big bowl game that we’re seeing here. And I think the Spartans are going to put on a show. Alright, so you’re gonna lay the two and a half with the spot. And Scott, what’s your take on this one?

Well, like you said, a couple of key players, they rather protect themselves in staying out of the game, which is too bad. You know that when I was growing up, when I was younger, none of these guys would want to be missing games, they wanted to play in these games. But nowadays, with all the money out there, that these guys have the potential of making, you know, I understand their point, they don’t want to get injured, they’d rather stay out because they know they’re moving on. And to get to this game, to be honest with this case, flipped about six points, like you said, Pittsburgh opened up about a three and a half point favorite at the beginning. And now obviously, with the quarterback and a couple other players, I think there’s some other guys that are out. I don’t have the exact number of players that are out on both of these teams. But Michigan State usually shows up in bowl games, Pitt has not really been, you know, in as many bowl games has Michigan State has been in. So I think the way they’re going to come prepared for this game. And being the fact that they did take the quarterback out, it’s hard to replace a weapon like that. Yes, the running game is with Michigan State miss and Nikki running back is difficult as well. But I think they have more weapons that they can go to. And obviously with the leader behind the wheel, the quarterback for Michigan State, I like Michigan State. And again, I’m going to agree with Dre on this one. I think I would play this game on the money line. I think it could be a very close game. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t an absolute crush. So I would just moneyline it, I would take the two two and a half down to what just an even game and take Michigan State guys at on the money line. And this game. Alright, so we both agree on that one. Next, Next, Next game up, and this line really hasn’t moved much been pretty steady throughout the week. It’s the Las Vegas ball. Wisconsin against Arizona State Wisconsin’s minus six right now pretty low total 42. Dre, what do you think?

Yeah, I was looking at the screen on this game. And it’s like six and a half, six, it keeps going back and forth. Um, I would probably lean Wisconsin there. But my favorite play is actually going to be the under here. Looking at the numbers really, the under is dropping, even though I’ve seen a couple, a lot of public betting the over and then we dropped from 43 and a half to 42 on this on there. So I’m gonna take the under here, especially Wisconsin, they weren’t in the trenches, they weren’t with their defense. Um, I think they can kind of stifle that passing attack from Arizona State that never really took off this year. And I think they’ll control the game on the ground the controller game in the trenches. And this will be a slow grind it out type of game. I’m going to take the under.

Alright, it’s interesting. And what’s your take on this got Wisconsin minus 642.

Not my favorite bowl game. I got to be honest with you guys. Not my favorite bowl game at all. You got Herm Edwards coach at Arizona State eight and for this year, not a bad season for them. But Wisconsin, not what they used to. They had an aide for season but they were used. They were one of the highly ranked teams in the country coming in, they started out slow, then they had a good towards the second half of the season, to get them a winning record. You know, this is a game. I don’t think that Wisconsin again, this is like one of these type of games. I just don’t know how they can get up for it. In the games in Vegas, you know, it’s not a known Bold City. I mean, it is a fun city. You know, let’s face it, that fun out there. But I can see distractions in this game. And I think that Arizona state is going to find the way they’re going to have probably the home crowd in this game being effective. So close. A lot of people Wisconsin does get a lot of fans to travel with them wherever they play in games, but they’re not the Wisconsin team that I they’re an up and down team. I think Arizona State can take advantage of this number. I would get this number guys to be honest with you, you get the six, six and a half. No reason to leave it there. I’ve got a plus seven. I think Arizona state plus the seven hangs in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if they could pull a mild upset in the game. But I think the game is going to be decided by like above four points or less. And I think the dog is absolutely alive in this game based on everything I’m saying and how they come in into it.

And with that lay off and again with Wisconsin not being a world beater and Arizona State complete decent ball. They can hang in there. They got weapons on both sides of the ball. They got a decent defense that shows up at times and their offense can definitely pull points up. I would take the dog in this game plus seven.

She had by it up a point to get the seven. All right well

Together numbers guy remember I tell you Tommy one thing about me, I’ve been doing this for 35 years. And for me, it’s not about looking at teams and records and things like, you know, that all comes into play, I get it and play as being out in the lineup, and now with COVID affecting games, like it did with Miami the other night and forcing the woman staff to use, you know, a fourth string basically quarterback, you know, and these kids have been off for three, four weeks, you know, you got to really know what’s going on, you got to look at numbers on these games. And to be honest with you, if Wisconsin was right, the big 10 is much more powerful conference I believe, than the PAC 12. They have more, you know, weapons, I’ll stay the Michigan’s the Michigan State, these are all bowl teams, Pac 12 really doesn’t do well in bowl games that often. And it’s a weaker conference. So this number, staying under opening at seven and dropping to six.

That tells me something that tells me that Wisconsin is not as strong as the number shows me so I like the dog for the a lot of reasons. And I think they have personnel that can keep themselves in the game against the team like Wisconsin, who might not even come up for the game like this.

Alright, well noted here. In addition to these college games, Scott does cover NBA and his fellows you know, the NFL, you could catch them on Instagram, at SM sports pics, and Dre writes for the site, so you could check out his articles on online sports bet.com. Alright, let’s get right to the best bets. Now. It could be any game on the board. Actually. It doesn’t have to be these games. We’ll start we’ll start with you, Scott. You have one best bet. Who would it be?

Oh boy. Oh, we were talking college football games or NFL.

It really could be anything. I mean, we’ll be on Friday, New Year’s Eve. We’re going to be on with another podcast covering some of the big bowl games for New Year’s Eve New Year’s Day. And this week’s NFL bullets so whatever you say based on based on this 48 hour window that we’re doing these games if I was to play you know one game I would think I would think Arizona state again these it’s not a big time best bet guys and I want you to understand these are not games. I want you guys out there to understand something well these are games that we’re trying to give you advice on you know we’re not telling you to go out and bury these games to play heavy money on them. These are just strong opinions from guys like us to put all the time we can into you know looking for advantages looking for that betting edge so don’t go crazy on these games.

These are games that you know if you want to play you’re playing but play them light. So my opinion on this show for my top play would be probably the dog with Arizona State. I just think they’re going to stay in this game because I just feel Wisconsin might not be as up for it is Arizona I think Herm Edwards will get Arizona state up for this game and they do have personnel like I said they can play with a team like Wisconsin one week they’re a world beater Wisconsin they look great next week they just look lame. So I think this could be the in between week and Arizona state plus seven I would say is my best bet on how to choose a best bet Alright, so I’m gonna stick with a one of the top 20 match of food not not want to previous ones we mentioned but is the top 20 matchup we are Oregon versus Oklahoma. Um, I am just taking the under here all day the under open that 63 The public is betting the over and it says 60 and a half now. So I mean both of these teams Oregon just lost Mario Cristobal and he took most of his stuff organised also missing a ton of players that are opting out to prepare for the draft then a Oklahoma’s dealing with the same thing with opt outs and you know they lost their entire coaching staff almost when Lincoln Riley just left so I don’t think any of these teams are going to first get up for this game and even be able to execute that well with both of their with both of them missing their entire coaching staff almost so I’m gonna take the under 60.5 In this game I don’t even see this total get like them getting within 10 points of this total It’s tough when you lose your coaching staff and the players to you know they have the you know the closest they have with the coach or they don’t like the coach whatever the case may be, and now they gotta have replacements coming in I you know I agree with you. That’s definitely not a positive going into a game obviously losing your coaching staff.

Alright, let’s for all the viewers that like to play parlays let’s throw apologize Scott once again it could be a combination of these games or anything you see on the board a lot of requests we get every day people like to play parlays personally I don’t recommend parlays but let’s let’s give out what the people want to hear give me a two team poly Scott Well I’ll tell you what I as I told you guys all the time I am not a Paul A guy by any stretch of the imagination I’m more of a singles get to get to the point type of guy because again, I’m all about the numbers and the numbers tell me the less games I put my money into the better chances are I’m going to make money so I’m not looking to play poorly but I got a seven point teaser that if you guys follow your teaser guys out there I think there’s some value to this I would take Iowa State update and a half and I would take also Arizona state the plus 13 or 14 depending on the line you get on that game could drift higher or hopefully it won’t go any lower than the six so at this point if you will lock it in right now. I play a seven point not a six point a seven point teaser with Iowa State get it to eight and a half and Arizona state so I got to battle the states of my teaser here seven point tiza Iowa State plus eight now that Arizona state plus 13 That would be what I would do a state teaser All right teaser that state is Trey what you like you you kind of like Paul is a little more than Scott and I what do you think I’m gonna go with a two team are here what I previously just mentioned Oregon. I’m gonna take the one that me and Scott are both on Now You Know Scott being on it makes me feel a little bit more comfortable michigan state money line all right interesting. We’re gonna wrap it up quickly but let’s throw out a prop I know Trey you specialize in prop bets you’ve been doing pretty good actually. You can catch like I said a lot of trades articles on online sports betting calm. What? Give us a prop either tomorrow night the weekend. What do you think?

Yeah, so it’s gonna be college football player prop here with will Shipley, the star freshmen out of Clemson. I think Clemson is gonna rely on him. They have relied on him in the last couple of games. Because I’m not even gonna attempt to say his last name, DJ, whatever his last name is their quarterback. He just hasn’t been good. He’s a five star recruiting he just hasn’t lived up to the hype. So I think I’m gonna take the over and we’ll Shipley rush yards, his last four games. He’s rushed for over 112 yards in three of them. And he’s gotten into the end zone five times. So I think that’s that’s just a great play. And, and his longest run in all four has been over 20 or over 21 yards. So I’m just going to take full Shipley over here.

I know Scott, you don’t necessarily focus on props, but you want to include something else out there.

Well, I want to get the I want to get our audience a little excited, because I’m going to tell you something on Friday on a show we do. I’m going to give you guys an opportunity to get one of my top two bowls, selections out of all the games go in this season. I love a game so much on Friday, one of these two championship games, that I’m excited about it right now. So I can help you with Prop plays, because that’s not my thing never has been. That’s I leave that up to the young generation, which is my man right next to me, Mr. Dre. He’s on top of that stuff.

And he does a hell of a job with it because he puts his time and effort into that stuff. I focus more on the meat and potatoes of just trying to find winners and beat those points spreads on a single basis. But as I said on Friday, oh boy, we’re coming big time. Be ready guys, come back for that game I’m putting out on the show Friday. I don’t think I’ll sleep Thursday night, but we’re gonna be back on Friday.

Like I said, once again, I want to thank my co host Scott Matthews at SM sports picks.

And Dre Fernandez from online sports betting calm once again. You could follow this show just hit the subscribe button up top. Give us a like and everyone stay safe, obviously. And we’ll be back on Friday guys, thanks a lot. Have a great day.