Western Conference Semi’s Begin In Denver | Suns vs Nuggets | OSB
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets: Conference Semifinals, Game 1 Prediction, Player Props, & Betting Tips
By Sam Batz
The NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday, April 29th when the Phoenix Suns make their way to the Mile High City to face the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals (8:30 PM EST, TNT). The Suns are coming off a 4-1 series victory over the LA Clippers where they won 4-straight after dropping Game 1 at home. The Nuggets are also coming off a 4-1 series victory in their First Round matchup, taking down the Minnesota Timberwolves in 5 games. The Suns and Nuggets have met a total of 13 times in the postseason all-time, and Phoenix leads with a 10-3 record. But it’s a new era, and for the first time ever Denver is the No. 1 seed in the West, and favored to beat the Suns.
The Phoenix Suns (+2.5; ML +120)
The Phoenix Suns are back in the Western Conference Semifinals for the 2nd consecutive year. Last season, the Suns were eliminated by the Dallas Mavericks at this point, and this year, they’ll need to take down the top-seed in the conference in order to redeem themselves. The Suns were 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season and both losses were in Denver. Phoenix struggled on the road, winning just 41.5% of their away games. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Suns have a 34% chance to advance to the Conference Finals, but if they continue to shoot as well as they did in the First Round (51.5% FG%), Phoenix could make things very difficult for Denver.
The Denver Nuggets (-2.5; ML -145)
The Denver Nuggets are the No. 1 Seed in the West for the first time in their 46 year franchise history. The Nuggets are in the playoffs for the 5th consecutive season, but never have they been the favorites to make it out of the West. Denver nearly completed their first ever sweep in the First Round against the Timberwolves, but dropped Game 4 in Minnesota. But the Nuggets finished things off in Denver, where they win 82.9% of the time, securing their first Conference Semifinal berth since 2021, when they were swept 4-0 by the Phoenix Suns. Denver is out for revenge, and with a 66% chance to win the series, the Nuggets are confident they can handle the Suns this time around.
Suns vs. Nuggets: Game 1 Odds
Team | Current Spread | Current Total | Opening Moneyline |
Phoenix Suns | +2.5 (-110) | Ov 226 (-110) | +120 |
Denver Nuggets | -2.5 (-110) | Un 226 (-110) | -145 |
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Suns vs. Nuggets: First Round Playoff Stats
No. 4 Phoenix Suns (4-1) 122.0 (2nd) 115.6 (9th) 51.5 (2nd) 40.7 (2nd) 122.5 (1st) 116.3 (12th) 2-1 (66.7%) 2-0 (100.0%) | Stat Type Points/Game Opponent Points/Game Field Goal % Three-Point % Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Home Record (Win-Rate) Away Record (Win-Rate) | No. 1 Denver Nuggets (4-1) 114.2 (9th) 105.4 (5th) 48.1 (4th) 38.9 (5th) 117.2 (4th) 109.6 (6th) 3-0 (100.0%) 1-1 (50.0%) |
Suns vs. Nuggets: Betting Trends (Regular + Postseason)
Phoenix Suns 44-41-2 21-21-1 (Away) 30-26-1 (vs. West) 44-40-3 3-2 8-23 (as Underdogs) 5-17 (Underdogs – Away) 0-0 (Playoff Underdogs) | Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Playoffs) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away) ML (Playoffs) | Denver Nuggets 47-39-1 27-16-1 (Home) 32-24-1 (vs. West) 41-46 3-2 43-18 (as Favorites) 30-7 (Favorites – Home) 4-1 (Playoff Favorites) |
Suns vs. Nuggets: Player Props
Devin Booker (Suns Shooting Guard): Under 30.5 Points (-115)
Devin Booker has been outstanding in the playoffs. Averaging 37.2 points per game, the 26-year old out of the University of Kentucky has been shooting lights out. In Game 5 against the Clippers, Booker went 19-27 from the field, or an unfathomable 70.4%! He hit 3 or more 3-point shots, and scored 30 or more points, in 4 out of 5 games in the First Round. It was a magical series for Booker, but now he faces a much tougher opponent in the Conference Semis, and while it would be amazing if he kept his scoring streak going, I expect Booker to come back down to Earth and go under 30.5 points in Game 1 against Denver.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets Point Guard): Over 23.5 Points (-110)
Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 27.2 points per game in the First Round. He’s been great for Denver on both sides of the ball, and plays nearly the entire game, giving him plenty of opportunities to score. The Suns struggled on defense in the First Round, allowing 115.6 points per game. Murray will cook Phoenix in Denver, where he went over 23.5 points in every game against Minnesota. He is coming off a 35 point game where he shot 52.2% from the field and 55.6% from 3-point range, and I expect Jamal Murray to go over 23.5 points on Saturday.
Suns vs. Nuggets Prediction
Take the Phoenix Suns to win Game 1 of the Western Conference Semis. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the postseason this year, but the Suns will be the first to win in Denver. Devin Booker is playing out of his mind, but Kevin Durant has also been excellent, picking up the slack when Booker is out. Denver’s Nikola Jokic will be a problem for Phoenix, but with the combined powers of Booker and Durant, the Suns should be able to neutralize The Joker. It will be a close game, but because of the way Phoenix is shooting the ball, I like the Suns in Game 1.
Prediction: Phoenix Suns Moneyline (+120)
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