Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets: NBA Finals Game 1 Prediction, Player Props, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

The 2023 NBA Finals are finally upon us, and on Thursday, June 1st the 8-seed Miami Heat will take on the 1-seed Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the postseason’s final series (8:30 PM EST, ABC). It is just the second time in NBA history that an 8-seed has made it all the way to the Finals, but the lowest seed of the tournament has yet to win the title. Miami could change that this year, but they are facing a highly skilled and ultra determined Denver Nuggets team who is competing for the franchises first ever NBA title. The Nuggets are heavily favored to win both Game 1 and the series as a whole, with FiveThirtyEight giving Denver a 73% chance to collect their first ring. The Miami Heat have been underestimated throughout the entirety of the postseason, and while they could surprise us once again, Miami is not expected to beat Denver at home in Game 1. 

The Miami Heat (+9; ML +300)

After a grueling series against the Boston Celtics, the Miami Heat emerged triumphant to make their 6th all-time appearance in the NBA Finals. The Heat won the Eastern Conference Finals 4-3 over the heavily favored Celtics, and are just the 2nd 8-seed to ever represent their conference in the Finals, and could be the first to win it all. Miami is 17-18 (48.5%) in the NBA Finals all-time, but went 0-2 against the Denver Nuggets this season. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Heat have a lowly 26% chance to beat Denver in Game 1, and enter the matchup as +9 point underdogs. Miami is 9-5 (64.3%) as underdogs this postseason, but the Heat have yet to face a team as well-rounded as the Denver Nuggets.     

The Denver Nuggets (-9; ML -375)

This season, the Denver Nuggets completed a string of firsts that the franchise has never before achieved. For the first time in their 46-year history, the Denver Nuggets were the No. 1 seed out of the West, they completed their first postseason sweep, won the Western Conference Final, and are now in their first ever NBA Finals. It’s been a magical season for the Nuggets, who are 12-3 (80.0%) in the playoffs and remain undefeated at home (8-0). Denver is heavily favored in Game 1 because 1) they are at home and 2) after sweeping the Lakers, the Nuggets have had an extended break as they waited for the Eastern Conference Finals to conclude. Both the Nuggets and Heat are undefeated in Game 1’s this postseason, but based on Denver’s preparation, line-up, and mindset, the Nuggets are the out-and-out favorites for Game 1. 

Heat vs. Nuggets: Game 1 Odds

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Heat vs. Nuggets: Postseason Stats

Heat vs. Nuggets: Postseason Betting Trends

Miami Heat

• 13-5 ATS in the postseason
• 7-3 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
• 10-7-1 O/U record in the postseason
• 9-5 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
• 6-4 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason

Denver Nuggets

• 9-6 ATS in the postseason
• 5-3 ATS at HOME in the postseason
• 8-7 O/U record in the postseason
• 9-1 as FAVORITES in the postseason
• 8-0 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason

Heat vs. Nuggets: Best Player Prop

Nikola Jokić (Nuggets Center): Triple-Double (-110)

Nikola Jokić is the heart and soul of the Denver Nuggets. The reigning 2x MVP is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game, and has recorded 8 triple-doubles in these playoffs. The Joker can do it all, and Miami will be hard-pressed to slow him down. Jokić averaged 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists in 2 games against Miami during the regular season, and I fully expect a well-rested Nikola Jokić to complete his 9th triple-double of the postseason in Game 1. 

Heat vs. Nuggets: NBA Finals Game 1 Prediction

Take the Denver Nuggets to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets remain undefeated at home (8-0) and the Miami Heat are bound to be exhausted after their 7-game series with the Celtics. The thin air of the Mile High City won’t do Miami any favors, and the Nuggets will take Game 1 with ease. Denver is extremely well-rounded, and has the top-rated offense (119.7) of the postseason. Miami is an excellent team with palpable chemistry, and if the three-ball is dropping the Heat could keep things interesting, but Miami won’t upset the Nuggets at home in the first game of the NBA Finals. 

Prediction: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-375)

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