Boston Heavily Favored in Rematch with Miami | Heat vs. Celtics | OSB
NBA Playoffs: (8)Miami Heat at (1)Boston Celtics
By Sam Batz
When: Sunday, April 21st at 1:00 PM EST
Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Watch On: ABC/ESPN
Matchup: Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will meet in the First Round of the playoffs in a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics were knocked out of championship contention by the Heat, losing 3-4 to 8 seeded Miami, but now Boston has a shot at redemption. The Heat took the same path this year, losing their first play-in game only to rally back and reach the playoffs as the lowest seed in the conference, but for the Heat to repeat as conference champions they’ll need to get past heavily favored Boston. The Celtics ended the season with the best record in the NBA (64-18), losing just 4 games at home (37-4), and enter the playoffs as the overall favorite to win the championship (+125). The Miami Heat come in with the worst odds to win the Finals (+17500), making this series, according to the oddsmakers, the most one sided matchup of the playoffs.
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Heat vs. Celtics Odds
Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Miami Heat | +14.0 (-110) | Ov 208.5 (-110) | +700 |
Boston Celtics | -14.0 (-110) | Un 208.5 (-110) | -1100 |
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Heat vs. Celtics Betting Trends
Miami Heat
- 42-40-2 ATS
- 25-15-2 ATS on the road
- 36-48 O/U record
- 15-27 O/U record on the road
- 11-24 as UNDERDOGS
- 11-14 as UNDERDOGS on the road
Boston Celtics
- 42-36-4 ATS
- 23-17-1 ATS at home
- 43-38-1 O/U record
- 22-19 O/U record at home
- 63-16 as FAVORITES
- 37-4 as FAVORITES at home
Heat vs. Celtics Stats
Miami Heat (46-36) 110.1 108.4 +1.7 46.5% 37.0% 42.3 11.8 113.3 (21st) 111.5 (5th) 22-19 (53.6%) 24-17 (58.5%) | Stat Type Points/Game Opponent Points/Game Point Diff Field Goal % Three-Point % Rebounds/Game Turnovers/Game Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Home Record (Win-Rate) Away Record (Win-Rate) | Boston Celtics (64-18) 120.6 109.2 +11.4 48.7% 38.8% 46.3 11.3 122.2 (1st) 110.6 (2nd) 37-4 (90.2%) 27-14 (65.9%) |
Heat vs. Celtics Head-to-Head History
- Regular & Post Season Games: 173 (1988-2024)
- All-time Series: Heat: 73 wins; Celtics: 100 wins
- Season Series: Celtics 3-0
Since their first meeting in 1988, the Celtics hold a 100-73 lead in the rivalry’s all-time series, as Boston extended their lead even further, recording 3 more wins over Miami. The Heat failed to beat the Celtics a single time this season (0-3), a poor follow-up to Miami’s impressive series win in the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago. The Heat will be hard pressed to repeat as series winner over Boston, as the Celtics are on a mission to claim their first ring since 2008, and secure the most championship titles in NBA history.
Heat vs. Celtics Best Player Props
Jaylen Brown; Over 2.5 Assists (-155)
Jaylen Brown is a key piece to the Celtics success, averaging 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game over the course of the regular season. Brown’s player prop of over 2.5 assists is a great value priced at -155. All he has to do is record 3 assists and the wager wins. Jaylen Brown is a great playmaker who sees plenty of the ball (averaging 33.5 minutes per game), giving him a great chance to hit the over his assist prop.
Tyler Herro; Over 5.5 rebounds (+120)
Tyler Herro led the Heat past the Bulls on Friday with 24 points, 9 assists, and 10 rebounds, securing Miami’s 5th straight playoff appearance. Herro is mostly known for his shooting ability, but with teammate Jimmy Butler sidelined with a knee injury, Herro has been forced to take on a more involved role. Herro recorded 10 rebounds against the Bulls, well above his season average of 5.3, but with Butler out, Miami needs Herro to crash the boards and create 2nd-chance opportunities whenever possible.
Heat vs. Celtics Prediction
Miami may have shocked the world last season, becoming just the second 8-seed in NBA history to reach the Finals, but a feat like that only comes around once in a generation, and the Boston Celtics are too good to let it happen again. Boston will take Game 1 and the series. The Celtics are heavily favored, which puts a lot of pressure on them, but Boston has had time to rest and prepare, and the Celtics will come out swinging against the Heat. Last year’s Eastern Conference Finals have been weighing on Boston all season, and now they have the perfect chance to redeem themselves. Jimmy Butler is out, and Kristaps Porzingis has filled in the missing piece of Boston’s championship puzzle, making the Celtics the team to beat this postseason.
Heat vs. Celtics predictions:
- Moneyline Pick: Boston Celtics (-1100)
If you take the Celtics Moneyline (-1100): You risk $1100 to win $100, for a total payout of $1200, if the Celtics win straight up.
- ATS Pick: Boston Celtics (-14.0)
If you take the Celtics to Cover the -14.0 Spread (-110): You risk $110 to win $100, for a total payout of $210, if the Celtics win the game by more than 14 points.
- O/U Pick: Over (208.5)
If you take the Over on 208.5 total points (-110): You risk $110 to win $100, for a total payout of $210, if the Heat and Celtics combine for more than 208 points.
