Houston Without Yordan Alvarez Against Cleveland | Astros vs Guardians | OSB
Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
The MLB regular season continues on Sunday, June 11th with an American League matchup between the Houston Astros and the Cleveland Guardians (1:40 PM EST, Bally Sports/MLB Extra Innings). According to the most recent MLB Power Rankings, the Astros are at No. 4 and the Guardians are No. 21, a difference of 17 spots. Although the Astros are ranked higher, they enter Sunday’s matchup as +1.5 run underdogs, with a moneyline priced at +125. The Guardians beat the Astros 10-9 on Friday, and enter as -1.5 run favorites for Sunday, with a moneyline priced at -135. Houston went 4-3 against the Guardians last season, and after the 1 run loss on Friday, the Astros have now lost 3 straight against Cleveland.
The Houston Astros (+1.5; ML +125)
The Houston Astros are 36-28 (56.3%) on the season, putting them in 2nd place in the AL West, 5th place in the American League, and 8th place in the MLB. The reigning champions are in a strong position to make their 7th-straight postseason appearance, but will look to improve their standing after going 4-6 in their last 10 games. Houston is averaging 4.64 runs per game, and are giving up 3.69, the lowest average in the MLB. The Astros have gone yard 32 more times than the Guardians, but Houston’s top home run hitter, Yordan Alvarez, is out with an oblique injury, and will not be in the lineup on Sunday. The Astros are 3-4 without Alvarez this season, but will enter Sunday’s matchup confident in their ability to beat Cleveland as the best defense in the MLB.
The Cleveland Guardians (-1.5; ML -135)
The Cleveland Guardians are 30-33 (47.6%) over a third of the way through the season, and are 2nd in the AL Central, 11th in the American League, and 21st in the MLB. Despite their less than ideal record, the Guardians are in a relatively easy division, giving them a 34% chance to make the MLB Playoffs. The odds aren’t great, but they could be worse, and after going 6-4 in their last 10 games, the Guardians are on the rise. They beat the Astros 10-9 in a thrilling 14 inning matchup on Friday, where Cleveland came back 5 separate times to tie the game and force another inning, until Will Brennan hit a walkoff hit to win the game. The Guardians don’t score often (3.87 runs per game) and they are dead last in home runs (40), but they play decent defense, and could surprise the Astros once again on Sunday.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds
Team | Runline | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros | +1.5 (-160) | Ov 8 (-115) | +125 |
Cleveland Guardians | -1.5 (+140) | Un 8 (-105) | -135 |
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Astros vs. Guardians: Season Stats
Houston Astros (36-28) .563 297 (13th) 236 (1st) +61 540 (14th) .247 (17th) 72 (T-16th) 284 (T-13th) 18-14 (56.3%) 18-14 (56.3%) | Stat Type Pct. Total Runs Total Runs Against Run Differential Hits Bat Avg. Homeruns RBI Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Cleveland Guardians (30-33) .476 244 (27th) 267 (8th) -23 516 (22nd) .240 (21st) 40 (30th) 227 (29th) 15-16 (48.4%) 15-17 (46.9%) |
Astros vs. Guardians: Betting Trends
Houston Astros
- 33-31 record ATS
- 18-14 record ATS on the ROAD
- 24-22 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 31-32-1 O/U record this season
- 5-5 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 11-8 as UNDERDOGS
- 8-7 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD
Cleveland Guardians
- 33-30 record ATS
- 16-15 record ATS at HOME
- 24-24 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 23-38-2 O/U record this season
- 6-4 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 18-17 as FAVORITES
- 10-11 as FAVORITES at HOME
Astros vs. Guardians: Starting Pitcher Comparison
Houston Astros 3-2 3.35 1.49 37.2 43 30 13 7 | Stat Type (Probable) Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR | Cleveland Guardians 4-3 3.57 1.28 80.2 81 55 22 8 |
Astros vs. Guardians Prediction
Take the Astros to beat the Guardians on Sunday, June 11th in the final matchup of their 4-game series with Cleveland. The Guardians are not the best batters and are up against the best defending team in baseball. Houston won’t be at their best without Yordan Alvarez, but the Astros have plenty of other players that can put the ball in play and give them a shot to win. Cleveland is going with their ace pitcher, Shane Bieber, who could give the Guardians an edge, but unless they can get the bats going, Bieber’s impact won’t mean much. The Astros have won the same number of games both on the road and at home, and on Sunday, Houston will add another game to the win column.
Prediction: Houston Astros Moneyline (+125)
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