ALCS Preview?

The Yankees and Astros square off in Houston tonight in a battle between two of the premier teams in baseball. Coming off of a 4 game series in the Bronx, which saw both teams throw their best punch, this will be a one game series in Houston’s house with the clubs not set to see each other again until late July. During their previous series against one another, the Yankees were able to rally late twice and pull out two heroic wins, while the Astros won game two behind Justin Verlander and followed that up with a combined no-hitter in game three. Overall it was a split series that saw the Astros score 15 runs to the Yankees 14, exemplifying how even these two teams are. On the mound for tonight’s game is (RHP) Luis Severino for the Yankees and (RHP) Luis Garcia for the Astros, the battle of Luis’. Severino pitched extremely well in his last outing against the Astros, striking out 7 over 6 innings only to be burned by a Kyle Tucker long ball in the 6th inning. On the other side, Luis Garcia and his funky windup are coming off of a pedestrian 5 inning 3 earned run outing against the Mets. Overall these two pitchers matchup well against one another with both pitchers supporting an ERA in the mid 3’s but with Severino having just faced the Astros and Luis Garcia making his first start this season against the Yankees, I would have to give the edge to Garcia. To my surprise, this is only the second time Garcia has faced the Yankees in his career while Severino has faced the Astros a whopping 9 times in his career, with the Yankees only winning 4 of those starts. Offensively, the Yankees are one of baseball’s best, ranking 2nd in the league in team OPS (.757) and leading the American league in total homeruns and slugging percentage (.434). The Astros have been good as well ranking 7th in team OPS (.738) and 5th in slugging percentage (.420). One thing the Astros do really well is put the ball in play, ranking 2nd in baseball in least amount of strikeouts, an old school approach that allows the Astros to let the other team beat itself. I will note that Yordan Alvarez was involved in a collision and was taken out of the game Wednesday afternoon. Alvarez’s status should be monitored. The betting lines have the Astros a slight home favorite with the game total set at 8. While its hard to fade the red hot Yankees this season, that’s exactly what I’ll be doing as the Astros at home near even odds present excellent value against a team they have been able to handle in recent years. 

The Play: Houston Astros ML -120