Political Betting — Trump and Biden Almost at the Finish Line

By Charles Jay

Can Donald Trump pull off what would, at this point, be an upset victory? If you think he can, you can get paid for it at BetOnline.

Trump is a +150 underdog in the odds updated as of Tuesday morning. Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, is the -170 favorite.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the virtual plethora of options you have, though.

They go on and on, and some of them are a little “out of the box,” you might say. For example, you can bet on the date when the loser will actually concede the election. And as it appears the atmosphere is such that we will see this contested, the “favorite” in this category, at +175, is “December 1st or later.”

How about the overall turnout? The price on the “over” for 149.5 million voters is -600. Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight website has his estimate at 158 million, with a range of anywhere between 147 and 168 million.

Biden’s over-under on electoral votes is 310.5 (-155 Over, +115 Under), and Silver has a very optimistic outlook for him, as his model indicates 348.5 for him and 189.5 for Trump.

So which states are close? BetOnline has Arizona listed at -115 either way. If Trump loses there, it would be a big blow.

Trump is a -170 favorite in both Florida and Georgia, while Biden is -170 in Pennsylvania. Biden is also priced at -290 to win Wisconsin, a state Trump surprisingly won in 2016.

It’s interesting that in Texas, where the national average at the political website Real Clear Politics has Trump ahead by only 1.2 points, he is priced at -500 to win (Biden is at +350). In North Carolina, where RCP has the race a virtual dead heat, Trump is -130.

Trump, who is down seven points nationally according to pollster Steve Rasmussen, is -250 to lose every state that he lost in 2016. And he is +375 to get 50% or more of the popular vote.

There are combo props. For example, Biden is -180 to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. It is more or less a foregone conclusion that Biden will win the popular vote, and that is reflected in the -650 price.

Let’s not forget those third party candidates either. Green Party candidate Howard Hawkins is priced at -300 to fall under a half a percent of the vote. Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen is getting more respect, with an over-under of 2% (the under is -200). And keep in mind that Kanye West is running too, albeit without ballot access. If you think he’ll exceed 0.5% of the popular vote (that’s about 790,000 votes), you’ll get paid at +600 odds.

The presidential race isn’t all that is covered at BetOnline. There are selected Senate races as well. Republican Tommy Tuberville, former head football coach at Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas Tech and Cincinnati, who is the U.S. Senate candidate in Alabama, is a big favorite (-1500) over Democrat Doug Jones (+600). That’s the same price Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is favored over Amy McGrath in his Kentucky Senate race.