NIT: NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK VS. DAVIDSON WILDCATS | FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS
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National Invitation Tournament (NIT) @ Denton, TX
NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK Vs. DAVIDSON WILDCATS, 7 PM ET (ESPN)
NIT Betting Odds: Davidson -1.5 / Total 138.5
Remember when Steph Curry led Davidson on a magic carpet ride into the Elite Eight back in 2008? That was more than a decade into Bob McKillop’s tenure as head coach. He’s still there, and in his 20th consecutive season with a winning record.
The Wildcats have an offense that is more or less centered around the triple. They have taken almost half their shots from three-point territory (48.4%, to be exact), and they are 17th in the nation in Effective Field Goal Percentage, which comes as a by-product of being good from long range, and 56.8% from inside the arc, which is eighth-best in the nation.
So can NC State play some defense? What they’re going to have to do in a game like this is protect their own glass on the defensive end, as well as get out to the perimeter. We’re not certain they are going to be good enough on either count.
The Wolfpack is outside the top 300 nationally in Defensive Rebounding Percentage, and they’ve allowed the opposition to shoot almost 36% from downtown.
Davidson has a balanced attack; they’ll get sufficient scoring from 6-5 guard Kellan Grady, who is a 38% shooter from the arc and exploded for 32 points in a win over George Mason in the Atlantic-10 tournament. Luka Brajkovic, a 6-10 center, has shot 64% overall from two-point range, and 6-7 wing Hyunjung Lee is pretty deadly from the arc, making 45% of his attempts, and this is good enough to situate him 30th in the nation in Offensive Rating. They’ll be hoping to get more from Carter Collins, the 6-3 guard who has reached double figures only once in the last eight games.
What they’ll have to navigate if they want to step inside the three-point arc is the shot-blocking ability of Manny Bates, NC State’s 6-11 center who was in the top fifteen in the country in blocked shot percentage.
These two teams have some things very much in common. One is that they are going to make their opponents work to get shooting opportunities. And we don’t think either of them minds being patient all that much. NC State is proficient when it comes to shooting treys, and they have a number of people in the rotation who can hit when called upon, like Jericole Hellems (38.6%), Cam Hayes (37.7%), Braxton Beverly (41.3%) and Thomas Allen (37.9%).
Ultimately the difference here might lie in Davidson’s ability to create second chances for itself in the way of offensive rebounding, and prevent the Wolfpack from doing the same. A lot of games are won and lost on the boards, and the team from the smaller conference may wind up coming up bigger. Lay it with DAVIDSON.
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