UFC 274

Chandler vs Ferguson Wow, what an explosive and just amazing card

 

The UFC Gods have blessed us with this weekend. This is my favorite card I have seen in a while and for us betting fans it’s going to be so much fun.

Well, let’s get right into it then this card is so stacked that even from the prelims it’s going to be very interesting. So fight number 1 that I like in the prelims it really stands out to me a lot is going to be Francisco Trinaldo vs Danny Roberts. So for this fight it comes to experience Francisco has been not just competing in MMA but in the UFC since 2012. Then right on the other side of the cage will be a man who has been in the UFC since 2015 this is crazy guys. 

 

So let’s break this down we got Danny Roberts with 12 fights in his UFC career he has a record of 7-5 with only 1 win by sub back in the first fight in 2015, with 3 of his wins coming from a knockout. Now on the other side, we got just a dog of a man Trinaldo with an impressive 22 fights in his UFC career he has a record of 18-4 with 5 knockouts and 2 subs. Here’s something to note though Trinaldo has fought most of his fights at 155 pounds he just recently made the move up to 170 he looks really good and we see a lot of fighters do this like Gilbert Burns and others have done this move up successfully. 

 

What stands out the most to me in this fight is the ability of Trinaldo to grind out impressive decisions and him not having to cut as much weight which is going to help his game plan even more. This is going to be a pretty competitive fight in the first round but I do think Trinaldo is going to grind down Roberts as he does best having Roberts pushed up against the cage and mixing up takedowns making him carry all of his weight till he either breaks his will and gets him out of there in the second or third round. So here’s my official bet Trinaldo on the money line it’s only -128 right now still very playable and something to note if you want to do a side bet Danny Roberts has never lost by decision so maybe Trinaldo to win by KO/TKO or sub double chance… but I think Trinaldo on the money line is the best bet here and he’s not a bad parlay piece either.

 

Alright so moving on now another BIG fight in the prelims we got Khaos(Kalinn) Willams vs Randy Brown.

This is just a banger of a fight 

here we got Khaos Williams who is 13 wins and 2 losses with 7 wins coming by knockout and 1 by submission. Now on the other side of the cage, we got Randy Brown with a record of 14 wins and 4 losses with 6 wins coming by knockout and 5 submissions. 

This fight here is going to be crazy wild exchanges will be thrown and I think the one to come out on top is Khaos Williams this man is such a good brawler and technical at it too. Williamss’ last fight was similar to this the other guy was bigger than him and he needed to close the distance and he did just that with a spectacular knockout over Miguel Baeza also in round 3 after a war for 11 minutes which means if you had a question about his cardio … your question answered massively. Here’s another thing that sticks out in Williams’s reach. He’s fighting someone 3 inches taller than him but they got the same reach. So that is going to play in the favor of Williams because it is going to be easier for him to land his strikes because he’s smaller but they have the same reach so Randy Brown can be hit more he’s a bigger target than Williams. 

Randy Brown’s size is actually going to be the thing that kills him in this fight because although he does have a massive leg reach on Khaos he’s got tiny little twigs for legs and we saw Vincente Luque chop randy browns legs down with calf kicks till he was knocked down by them at the end of the fight also Khaos hits a lot harder than Luque and after Luque knocked out Randy Brown he couldn’t get up for like 5 minutes. So my official bet again we are going to take Khalinn Williams to win on the money line. But Khalinn Khaos Williams to win by knockout is a very good side bet maybe even take him to win by knockout in rounds 2 or 3 for even better odds.

 

Alright, let’s move on to the main card, and wow what a main card the UFC gods have blessed us with this time I am so excited for this. Coming in first and hot on the main card is Donald Cowboy Cerrone in his amazingly 38th UFC bout vs no other than another UFC veteran and fan-favorite Joe Lauzon and another banger we got in store for us here. In Cowboys, last 15 fights 10 of them have come by knockout and on the side of the cage, we got Lauzons last 11 fights 7 have come by way of knockout. Now, here’s the deal most of these fights have been losses for both men … both men have been knocked out plenty of times in the last few years and they both got a few knockouts of their own along the way but mostly these old vets have been getting destroyed and knocked out in the last few fights for both of them. 

The only thing that sticks out to me at all in this fight is Cerrone has been trying to retire for his last 5 fights but he wants to do it on a win and things haven’t gone his way not even close …. also it would be good to note here that this fight will be taking place at lightweight Cerrone has not made the weight cut to 155 in 2 years he’s been fighting at welterweight now I’m not saying he can’t do it but this is going to affect him … a lot. Now on the other hand Joe Lauzon’s hasn’t fought in 2 years !!  I will give him credit his last fight out he did a very impressive job vs a young prospect Jonathan Perce who had 9 fights in the last 4 years and his only loss is to Joe Lauzon’s so that goes to show the fight is still in him.    So now with all this being said, we are going to have a strikers delight of a fight here I think Donald Cerrone is going to put it all on the line in the first round and I don’t think it will be enough to get the knock out I think he gasses out from the weight cut after round 1 and Joe Lauzon’s ends up getting him out of there by ko or maybe even a sub. My official bet Joe Lauzon’s on the money line …

 I am writing this on Monday so the best bet could be fight does not go to a decision if the odds aren’t -1000 … but this is not a fight to go crazy on I like Joe Lauzons as the underdog for a half unit bet. IF the odds are not to crazy on the fight does not go to decision that is a very good parlay piece.

 

Alright, the next fight I will be betting on here is the Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson. Just wow … we have truly been blessed with some amazing fights. Let’s start with Chandler he’s the favorite by -430 and I can’t seem to figure out how and why. Chandler had an amazing run at Bellator just smashing people left and right but then he got knocked out by the champ in Bellator right now and ever since then I think the mental part of his game is kind of lost because that was his chance to get the title in Bellator he blows it gets knocked out in like less than 2 mins. Then he gets a fat paycheck to come over to the UFC has an impressive performance against Dan Hooker and then he gets to fight for the belt again!

 This time on the big stage at the UFC vs Olivera who is also on this card tonight as we all know has an amazing first round then he blows it and gets dominated in round 2 in like 30 secs so this tells us he is an amazing fighter but he leaves himself open to getting tagged quick and Ferguson is going to make him pay every single time he does Just as we see in the Justin Gaethje fight Chandler landed some great shots but he leaves him self open and Gaethje picked him apart in a clinic 30-27 decision loss.

 Now we are here Chandler vs Ferguson let’s talk about Ferguson because interestingly enough Tony has fought 2 of the same 3 opponents and they are both on this card with us this is pretty strange I don’t know if I’ve ever seen this before maybe in the early years of the UFC it has but we got the co-main event Chandler vs Ferguson and they have both lost to each Justin Gaethje and Charles Olivera who are fighting for the belt in the main event! So let’s get into Tony a little bit more he was the boogyman of the lightweight division i the UFC for the longest time. When people were asked to fight him they turned down the contract. He was on a 12-fight win streak destroying everyone in his path then he got his chance for UFC gold and just like Chandler, he blew it to no other than Justin Gaethje I mean this is just crazy. 

Chandler losses his title shot to Olivera and Tony loses to Gaethje it’s just incredible how it played out. But back to Ferguson just like Chandler losing the belt hurt him mentally Ferguson has been pretty inactive since then and it’s not from injuries that are just unlike him and he’s had 1 fight since then a year ago and he lost. So 2 years ago he lost to Gaethje then 1 year later he has another fight loses and here we are now another year later after his last fight. Here’s the thing though that I like a lot with Ferguson he’s got a new training camp with new people in his corner he’s got a new headspace where Chandler is still training at the same place where hes been getting all these losses Chandler is 1-3 in his last 4 fights.

 Here’s another thing with Tony Ferguson’s new corner he went back to the roots he hired his old wrestling coach and that is going to help him a lot because the last couple of fights he lost was after he became a superstar and kinda went for banger fights just throwing punches and kicks non stop all his last few fights but mixing in very little takedowns because he wanted to be exciting for the fans. 

Wrestling is not the most fun way to win 

an MMA fight but it is the most effective and for this reason, I’m taking Ferguson. Both of these guys are both A+ fighters you can only learn so much more in your career at the point these guys are both at but one thing Tony has the edge over Chandler in is his mental game he said he’s going to do what he has to do to win this fight not what the fans want he is going to wrestle and I think he holds Chandler down for 3 rounds. Like I said earlier Chandler hits some amazing shots even in his last 2 losses he hit some amazing shots BUT he leaves himself open and Ferguson is going to make him pay for the little mistakes Chandler makes and puts him on his back for 3 rounds. For my official pick Tony Ferguson on the money line underdog … a side bet maybe Ferguson by points but I do see him being able to finish Chandler as well so I would just stick with the money line he’s already a +350 underdog no need to get greedy.