Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning

By Sam Batz

Vegas’ Golden Knights continue their tour of the Sunshine State when they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, March 8th (7:00 PM EST, NHLPP/ESPN+). The Golden Knights are coming off a 2-1 loss to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, ending a 3 game winning streak. While Tampa Bay snapped a 5 game losing streak after beating the Philadelphia Flyers 5-2 on Tuesday. Thursday’s matchup is the second of the season between the Golden Knights and Lightning, who faced-off on February, 18th, and ended 5-4 in favor of Vegas. Despite the previous win, current NHL odds have the Lightning favored at -176, and the Golden Knights priced at +145. 

Vegas Golden Knights Breakdown (+145)

The Golden Knights of Vegas are 38-20-6 with 82 points. They are tied with the Los Angeles Kings for 1st in a tightly contested Pacific Division, and are currently 1st in the Western Conference, again tied with LA in points, but ahead by a single win. Vegas went 6-2-2 in their last 10, and were on a 3 game winning streak before falling to the Panthers in their last game. The Knights typically allow around 30.8 shots against per game, but in their matchup with the Panthers, allowed an inexplicable 41 shots on goal. They were lucky to only lose by 1, but will need to tighten it up on defense against the Lightning who have no problem lighting up the goal.  

The Golden Knights are a young franchise, yet they have had tremendous success since their introduction to the league in 2018. Vegas has made the playoffs in 4 out of the 5 years they’ve been in the NHL, and according to FiveThirtyEight, are set to make the postseason once again (though nothing is certain). Regarding Thursday’s matchup with Tampa Bay, the Golden Knights are considered the underdogs. Vegas has a win-rate of 57.9% as underdogs (11-7-1), and a win-rate of 58.6% on the road (17-7-5). They may not be favored, but the Golden Knights are not a team you want to underestimate. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown (-176)

Tampa Bay is 38-21-5 with 81 points through 64 games. They are 3rd in the Atlantic Division, 5th in the Eastern Conference, and are seeking their 4th straight Stanley Cup Finals appearance. The Lightning lost to the Colorado Avalanche in the finals last year, snapping a run of back-to-back championship seasons in 2020 and 2021. The Lightning have done their job for the most part, and while nothing is certain, Tampa Bay has a 99% chance to make the playoffs for a 6th straight year. Unfortunately, the Lightning’s momentum has stalled, winning just 3 out of their last 10 games (3-5-2). 

Despite their recent form, Tampa Bay is favored to beat the Golden Knights. The Lightning win 67.3% of the time when they are favorites. They lost to the Golden Knights on the road earlier this season, but now face Vegas on their home turf, where they win 71.9% of the time. It will be a close game, but Tampa Bay certainly has the edge on offense, recording 23 more goals than Vegas. The Lightning will need to strike many times in order to defeat the Golden Knights. 

Golden Knights vs. Lightning: Season Stats

Vegas Golden Knights (38-20-6) 82 200 (T-15th) 176 (9th) +24 3.13 (T-16th) 2.75 (8th) 21-13-1 (60.0%) 17-7-5 (58.6%)

Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate)

Tampa Bay Lightning (38-21-5) 81 223 (6th) 196 (14th) +27 3.48 (6th) 3.06 (15th) 23-5-4 (71.9%) 15-16-1 (46.9%)

Golden Knights vs. Lightning: Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Vegas Golden Knights	N/A	Ov 6 (-115)	+145
Tampa Bay Lightning	N/A	Un 6 (-105)	-176

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Golden Knight vs. Lightning: Betting Trends

Vegas Golden Knights 30-34 17-12 (Away) 16-12 (vs. East) 26-34-4 4-6 11-7-1 (as Underdogs) 7-6-1 (Underdogs Away)

Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away)

Tampa Bay Lightning 29-35 18-14 (Home) 15-14 (vs. West) 33-23-8 7-2-1 30-17-5 (as Favorites) 20-9-2 (Favorites Home)

Golden Knights vs. Lightning: Key Players

Vegas Golden Knights – Center, Chandler Stephenson: Leading the team with 50 player points (12 goals, 38 assists), he has recorded the most assists as well. In his last 10 games, Stephenson averaged 0.0 goals, 0.3 assists, and 0.3 points, but I predict he will turn it around and record at least 1 assist against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Right Wing, Nikita Kucherov: The 29-year old Russian leads his team with the 91 player points (25 goals, 66 assists), the 3rd most points in the league. He leads the rest of his team by 28 assists, and in his last 10 games, averaged 0.4 goals, 0.9 assists, and 1.3 points. I predict Kucherov gets 2 assists against Vegas. 

Golden Knights vs. Lightning: Prediction

I would take the Tampa Bay Lightning (-176) to win. The Lightning are tough to beat at home, and will be looking to build more momentum after their 5 goal victory against the Flyers. The Golden Knights are looking to bounce back after their loss to the Panthers, but with several divisional opponents hot on their heels, Vegas will have a lot of added weight on their shoulders. Whether the Golden Knights can handle the pressure remains to be seen, but hostile territory is the last place the Knights want to be right now, especially against an opponent who has won over 70% of their home games. The Lightning have lit the lamp more often, and are more clinical in front of goal, which is why I am going with Tampa Bay on Thursday. 

Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning (-176) Moneyline and the Under (6). Final Score: 3-2

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