Toronto Takes on Tampa Bay In a First Round Preview | Maple Leafs vs Lightning | OSB
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning
By Sam Batz
On Tuesday, April 11th the Tampa Bay Lightning will host fellow Atlantic Division competitor the Toronto Maple Leafs for their final regular season matchup (7:00 PM EST, ESPN). Tampa Bay is 1-1-0 against the Maple Leafs, averaging 2.5 goals for and 3.5 goals against per game. Toronto crushed the Lightning 4-1 in their last matchup, but that was four months ago. Toronto and Tampa Bay both clinched the playoffs and are essentially locked in as the No. 2 (Maple Leafs) and No. 3 seed (Lightning) coming out of the Atlantic, and will face each other for the second consecutive season in the First Round of the playoffs. Tuesday’s matchup may be the 81st game on the schedule, but for the winner, it will be a forceful statement.
Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown (+130)
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 47-21-11 (105 points) and are in the playoffs for the 7th straight year. They are going to finish 2nd in the Atlantic and are currently 5th in the Eastern Conference. The Maple Leafs have not won the Stanley Cup since 1967, and according to FiveThirtyEight, Toronto will need to defy great odds in order to reclaim the trophy this year. They face tough competition but the Maple Leafs are a good team who rank in the top-10 in both goals for (269) and goals against (214). They are the underdogs on Tuesday because they are inconsistent on the road, and face an opponent who wins nearly 70% of the time at home, but don’t be shocked if the Maple Leafs pull off the upset.
Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown (-140)
The Lightning are 45-29-6 (96 points) and trail Tuesday’s competition by 9 points. Regardless, Tampa is in the playoffs for the 6th consecutive season. They beat Toronto in the First Round last year, but it took them seven games to do so. Tuesday’s meeting will be a small preview of what lies in store, but if last year’s 7 game series taught us anything, it’s that Tampa and Toronto are two fiercely competitive, evenly matched sides. The Lightning are favored because of home court advantage, but the Maple Leafs play suffocating defense, which could have a detrimental effect on Tampa’s game plan.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Opening Odds
Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-220) | Ov 6.5 (-115) | +130 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | -1.5 (+175) | Un 6.5 (-110) | -140 |
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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Season Stats
Toronto Maple Leafs (47-21-11) 105 269 (T-8th) 214 (7th) +55 3.41 (T-7th) 2.71 (8th) 27-8-6 (65.9%) 20-13-5 (52.6%) | Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Tampa Bay Lightning (45-29-6) 96 272 (7th) 248 (15th) +24 3.40 (9th) 3.10 (15th) 27-7-5 (69.2%) 18-22-1 (43.9%) |
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Betting Trends
Toronto Maple Leafs 36-43 20-18 (Away) 24-23 (vs. East) 36-38-5 5-5 8-3-2 (as Underdogs) 8-2-2 (Underdogs Away) | Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away) | Tampa Bay Lightning 37-43 22-17 (Home) 21-27 (vs. East) 41-30-9 5-4-1 39-17-6 (as Favorites) 26-7-5 (Favorites Home) |
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Game Changers
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Mitchell Marner leads the Maple Leafs with 98 points (30 goals, 68 assists) and averaged 1.10 points per game (5 goals, 6 assists) in his last 10 games
- Auston Matthews (39), William Nylander (38), John Tavares (35), and Mitchell Marner (30) have all scored 30 or more goals this season, combining for 142 goals, 52.8% of Toronto’s total
- Ilya Samsonov leads all Toronto Goaltenders with 41 games played, he is 26-10-5 (T-13th) and averages 2.36 GA/G (6th)
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning with 110 points (30 goals, 80 assists) and averaged 1.20 points per game (3 goals, 9 assists) in his last 10 games
- Brayden Point leads the Lightning with 49 goals (5th) and is 2nd on the teams with 91 points
- Andrei Vasilevskiy has played 59 games between the sticks for Tampa Bay, he is 34-21-4 (6th) and averages 2.63 GA/G (13th)
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction
Take Tampa Bay to win on Tuesday. The Lightning are tough to beat at home and they will look to make a statement with a win over their bitter rivals. As the head coach for either side, I would take this matchup incredibly seriously knowing this is who they will play in the First Round of the playoffs. The game is largely meaningless in terms of the standings, but the winner will certainly get a confidence boost heading into the postseason. Tampa Bay is an experienced team who have been to the Finals in three straight seasons (2020, 2021, & 2022), and they know what it takes to win big games under pressure.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (-140)
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