Toronto and Tampa Bay’s Unpredictable Series Continues | Maple Leafs vs Lightning | OSB
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning: Game 3
By Sam Batz
On Saturday, April 22nd the Tampa Bay Lightning will host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 of the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (7:00 PM EST, TBS). The series is tied 1-1 and Game 3 will be the first played in Tampa. The Lightning took Game 1 with a 7-3 victory over Toronto, but the Maple Leafs turned it around, taking down Tampa Bay 7-2 in Game 2. Toronto are -1.5 goal favorites with a moneyline priced at -115. Tampa Bay are +1.5 goal underdogs with a moneyline priced at -105. As the odds suggest, Game 3 is a toss up, and either side has a legitimate claim to victory.
The Toronto Maple Leafs (-115)
The Maple Leafs went 50-21-11 (111 pts) and finished 2nd in the Atlantic, 4th in the East, and are tied for 4th in the NHL. They are in the playoffs for the 7th straight year, but in 5 of the last 6 years, the Maple Leafs were bounced in the First Round. They will look to avoid that fate this time around, but the Lightning are a tough opponent. Toronto has a 52% chance to see the Second Round, making this series difficult to call. The Maple Leafs went 2-0-1 against Tampa Bay during the regular season, but after the first 2 games of the series, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one was decided in 7.
The Tampa Bay Lightning (-105)
Tampa finished the year with a 46-30-6 (98 pts) record, which put them at 3rd in the Atlantic, 6th in the East, and 13th in the NHL. The Lightning have had tremendous success since 2020. They won two Stanley Cups (2020, 2021), and could have made it three-in-a-row after going to the finals once again in 2022, but came up short, losing to the Avalanche in 6 games. This season is the 6th consecutive year Tampa qualified for the playoffs, but with just a 6% chance to make it all the way, they are not likely to see the Finals for a 4th consecutive year. However, they do have a good chance to beat the Maple Leafs, and in Game 3, the Lightning are back home where they won 68.3% of their games during the regular season.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Game 3 Odds
Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+220) | Ov 6.5 (+100) | -115 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | +1.5 (-276) | Un 6.5 (-121) | -105 |
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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Regular Season Stats
Toronto Maple Leafs (50-21-11) 111 278 (9th) 220 (7th) +58 3.39 (9th) 2.68 (7th) 27-8-6 (65.9%) 23-13-5 (56.1%) | Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Tampa Bay Lightning (46-30-6) 98 280 (8th) 252 (T-14th) +28 3.41 (8th) 3.07 (T-14th) 28-8-5 (68.3%) 18-22-1 (43.9%) |
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Betting Trends (Regular + Postseason)
Toronto Maple Leafs 40-44 23-18 (Away) 28-24 (vs. East) 39-40-5 5-5 39-18-9 (as Favorites) 12-11-3 (Favorites Away) | Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away) | Tampa Bay Lightning 39-45 23-18 (Home) 23-29 (vs. East) 44-31-9 6-3-1 6-13-0 (as Underdogs) 1-0-0 (Underdogs Home) |
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Game Changers
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Mitchell Marner leads the Maple Leafs with 6 points (2 goal, 4 assists) in the playoffs. He also led his team in the regular season, with 99 points (30 goals, 69 assists) and is a key playmaker for Toronto
- John Tavares leads Toronto in the playoffs with 3 goals in 2 games. He recorded 36 goals in the regular season
- Toronto Goaltender Ilya Samsonov had a disastrous Game 1, allowing 6 goals on 29 shots against, before being replaced. He turned it around in Game 2 with a 90.9% SV%
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Corey Perry leads the Lighting with 4 points (2 goals, 2 assists) in the playoffs. He recorded just 25 points (12 goals, 13 assists) in the regular season.
- Nikita Kucherov led Tampa in the regular season with 113 points (30 goals, 83 assists). He recorded the 2nd-most assist of any player, and in the playoffs, he has 3 points (1 goal, 2 assists)
- Andrei Vasilevskiy has been in goal the whole time for Tampa this series. He is 1-1, averages 5.0 GA/G, and posts a 85.3% SV%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Game 3 Prediction
Take the Tampa Bay Lightning to win Game 3. They are a formidable opponent in their home arena and have tons of experience in the postseason. It’s been an unpredictable series, and both Toronto and Tampa were inconsistently good and bad through the first 2 games. Game 3 will be a more evenly matched contest as the excitement of the postseason begins to wane. Tampa certainly needs to be better on defense in Game 3, but at home, they averaged 2.6 goals against and 4.0 goals per game during the regular season.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (-105)
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