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Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars: NHL Conference Finals Game 4 Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
The Western Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on Thursday, May 25th with a pivotal Game 4 matchup between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights (8:00 PM EST, ESPN). The Golden Knights lead the series 3-0, putting them in a strong position to reach the Finals, while it’s win-or-go-home for Dallas. It may seem like the Stars are down and out, but the Conference Final has been a closer series than the score suggests. Games 1 and 2 were decided in overtime, but Dallas caught some unlucky breaks and Vegas jumped out to an early 2-0 lead. Dallas needs to bounce back after a tumultuous Game 3, where The Golden Knights won 4-0 in a one-sided blowout, but if the Stars fail to win on Thursday, their season is over.
The Vegas Golden Knights (+1.5; ML +105)
The Golden Knights entered the postseason as the top-seed in the Western Conference and, lo and behold, 14 games later Vegas is one win away from the conference title. The Knights are 11-3 (78.6%) in these playoffs with a +14 goal differential, the best of the four remaining teams. Against Dallas, Vegas is averaging 3.67 goals, and have held the Stars to just 1.67 goals through three games. The Golden Knights may be the underdogs in Game 4, but they have a 95% chance to reach the Finals, and if they continue to play as well as they have against Dallas, Vegas will be drinking from the Stanley Cup.The Golden Knights are a young franchise, and while they’ve never won a championship, they should feel good about their chances to reach their 2nd Stanley Cup Final in 5 years.
The Dallas Stars (-1.5; ML -125)
Only four teams in the history of the NHL have ever comeback from an 0-3 deficit, but despite the odds, the Dallas Stars are looking to become the fifth. Dallas is having a rather up-and-down postseason, and right now, they are down. The Stars failed to show up in a crucial Game 3, and after giving up 3 quick goals, Dallas pulled Jake Oettinger from goal halfway through the 1st period. It was a nightmare start for the Stars in Game 3, as they never recovered and lost 4-0 despite recording 18 more shots than the Golden Knights. The good news is Dallas is the favorite in Game 4 and are not expected to be swept, but the bad news is the Stars are 6-6 (50.0%) as favorites, and the Golden Knights are 6-2 (75.0%) as underdogs.
Golden Knights vs. Stars: Game 4 Odds
Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Vegas Golden Knights | +1.5 (-261) | Ov 5.5 (-105) | +105 |
Dallas Stars | -1.5 (+210) | Un 5.5 (-115) | -125 |
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Golden Knights vs. Stars: Postseason Stats
Vegas Golden Knights 52 38 +14 3.71 2.71 29.5 32.2 6-2-0 (75.0%) 5-1-0 (83.3%) | Stat Type Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Shots/GP Shots Against/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Dallas Stars 52 51 +1 3.25 3.19 30.2 28.7 5-3-0 (62.5%) 3-5-0 (37.5%) |
Golden Knights vs. Stars: Postseason Betting Trends
Vegas Golden Knights
- 9-5 ATS in the postseason
- 5-1 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
- 8-6 O/U record in the postseason
- 6-2-0 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
- 4-1-0 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason
Dallas Stars
- 9-7 ATS in the postseason
- 4-4 ATS at HOME in the postseason
- 9-7 O/U record in the postseason
- 6-6-0 as FAVORITES in the postseason
- 5-3-0 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason
Golden Knights vs. Stars: Game 4 Prediction
Take the Golden Knights to win Game 4 and complete the sweep. Dallas will come out ready to redeem themselves after a sorry performance in Game 3, but Vegas is playing outstanding defense and won’t make it easy for the Stars to score. Dallas is averaging less than 2 goals per game against the Golden Knights, and on the road, Vegas has lost just 1 game (5-1-0) all postseason. The Stars and Golden Knights have each scored 52 goals during the playoffs, which means it will come down to defensive prowess, and that’s where Vegas has an advantage. Despite being out-shot 77 to 98, the Golden Knights have maintained a strong defensive front, and although the Stars are generating more opportunities, they are not quality looks, and in Game 4, Dallas will continue to struggle against the Golden Knights suffocating defense.
Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (+105)
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