Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights: NHL Conference Finals Game 1 Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

The Stanley Cup Playoffs have entered the Conference Finals, and in the West, the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights will face-off in Game 1 on Friday, May 19th (8:30 PM EST, ESPN). Dallas got here after beating the Minnesota Wild in 6 games in the First Round, and then narrowly beat the Seattle Kraken in a thrilling 7 game Conference Semifinal. The Golden Knights easily dispatched the Winnipeg Jets, winning 4-1 in the First Round, and then fought hard to take down the troublesome Edmonton Oilers in 6 games in the Conference Semis. 

The Dallas Stars (+1.5; ML +105)

The Dallas Stars played 13 games on their way to the Conference Finals, and in that time, they went 8-5 (61.5%). The Stars have not won the Stanley Cup trophy since 1999, but according to FiveThirtyEight, Dallas is not expected to rectify their title this year. The Stars are a good team capable of scoring a lot of goals when the time is right, but against the Golden Knights staunch defense, you might think the Stars could struggle to find the back of the net. However Dallas was undefeated against Vegas during the regular season, and will be pouring over game film in an attempt to replicate that success in the playoffs. Roope Hintz, who leads the team with 19 points (9 goals, 10 assists), has been the star player for Dallas these playoffs, and Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been a dependable option between the posts, and with these two on the ice, it should be a great series. 

The Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5; ML -125)

The Vegas Golden Knights joined the NHL in 2018 and have qualified for the postseason in 5 out of the 6 years they’ve been in the league. Yet the Golden Knights have never won the Stanley Cup, and are now in their 3rd ever Conference Finals. Through 11 postseason games, Vegas has lost just 3 times and took down the highest-scoring team in the league, the Edmonton Oilers, in the Conference Semis. The Golden Knights finished the year as the best in the West, and in the Conference Finals against the Dallas Stars, they get the chance to prove it. Center Jack Eichel leads the Knights with 14 points (6 goals, 8 assists) but Vegas is a well-rounded team with skilled players at every position, and they will rely once again on their depth to wear Dallas down over the course of 3 periods in Game 1.  

Stars vs. Golden Knights: Game 1 Odds

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Stars vs. Golden Knights: Postseason Stats

Stars vs. Golden Knights: Postseason Betting Trends

Dallas Stars

• 7-6 ATS in the postseason
• 3-3 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
• 8-5 O/U record in the postseason
• 2-0-0 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
• 2-0-0 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason

Vegas Golden Knights

• 8-3 ATS in the postseason
• 4-2 ATS at HOME in the postseason
• 7-4 O/U record in the postseason
• 3-1-0 as FAVORITES in the postseason
• 2-1-0 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason

Stars vs. Golden Knights: Game 1 Prediction

Take the Golden Knights to win Game 1. Dallas has more goals, but Vegas plays better defense, which we all know is the key to winning championships. The Knights finished just 3-points ahead of the Stars during the regular season, but Vegas has looked miles ahead of Dallas in the playoffs. Every series is different, but if the Golden Knights could keep Connor McDavid’s Oilers out of their net, they can certainly keep the Stars at bay. Dallas’ inconsistency will be their downfall, while the Golden Knight’s methodical approach will allow them to stick to the game plan, which will benefit them greatly against the sporadic Stars. Vegas will take Game 1 at home, where they have been fantastic this postseason, and Dallas will fall to an early deficit. 

Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights ML (-125)

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