Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers

By Sam Batz

The Chicago Blackhawks hit the road on Friday, March 10th to face the Florida Panthers in FLA Live Arena (7:00 PM EST, NHLPP/ESPN+). The Blackhawks have struggled to win games this year, but managed to beat the Panthers 4-2 back in October. Now, with less than 20 games remaining on their schedules, the Blackhawks and Panthers find themselves in very different situations. Chicago, while not officially eliminated, are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs. Florida on the other hand, still has a chance to see the postseason, though their chances are dwindling. 

Chicago Blackhawks Breakdown (+325)

The Chicago Blackhawks, one of the NHL’s oldest and most storied franchises, are having a terrible season. They are currently 22-37-5, with just 49 points through 64 games. The Blackhawks are last (8th) in the Central Division, last (16th) in the Western Conference, and have virtually zero chance to see the postseason. They have the second-worst goal differential (-68) in the West, and are posting the lowest goals for total (159) in the league. To make matters worse, Chicago is projected to finish with just 64 points, the second lowest projection in the NHL.

It’s safe to assume Chicago will not be favored in their matchup with the Panthers on Friday. Currently, the Blackhawks are priced at +325, with a 22% chance to win. Chicago has become accustomed to the role of underdog, having played 95.3% of their games (61 out of 64) as the sleeper pick. The Blackhawks win-rate as underdogs is 34.4%, which is essentially their win-rate for the season as a whole. On the road, Chicago is even worse, with an away game win-rate of 30.0%, and it would certainly be a shock to see the Blackhawks pull off the upset against Florida on Friday. 

Florida Panthers Breakdown (-430) 

The Florida Panthers have a 32-27-6 record with 70 points through 65 games. They are 4th in the Atlantic Division, 9th in the Eastern Conference, and according to FiveThirtyEight, have a 39% chance to make the playoffs. The Panthers are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games, and are coming off back-to-back home wins against the Penguins and Golden Knights. Florida has a win-rate of 58.1% at home, and on Friday, play the 4th consecutive game in their home arena. The Panthers cannot afford to drop any more points if they are to continue their hunt for a spot in the playoffs. 

Florida will be expected to beat Chicago on Friday. The Panthers are priced at -430, meaning a loss to the Blackhawks would be an embarrassingly bad upset. Florida did lose to Chicago earlier this season, but has since surpassed the Blackhawks as the superior team. The Panthers postseason future is on the line, and they will enter Friday’s matchup looking to, 1) redeem themselves for the loss against Chicago, and 2) collect a vital two-points and extend their winning streak. The Florida Panthers must avoid the trap game if they want to remain a playoff contender in the East. 

Blackhawks vs. Panthers: Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Chicago Blackhawks	+1.5 (+140)	Ov 6.5 (-121)	+325
Florida Panthers	-1.5 (-165)	Un 6.5 (+100)	-430

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Blackhawks vs. Panthers: Betting Trends

Chicago Blackhawks 30-34 13-17 (Away) 11-14 (vs. East) 33-29-2 5-4-1 21-37-3 (as Underdogs) 9-19-2 (Underdogs Away)

Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away)

Florida Panthers 26-39 13-18 (Home) 8-22 (vs. West) 34-26-5 3-6-1 25-20-4 (as Favorites) 15-10-3 (Favorites Home)

Blackhawks vs. Panthers: Season Stats

Chicago Blackhawks (22-37-5) 49 159 (32nd) 227 (26th) -68 2.48 (32nd) 3.55 (26th) 13-18-3 (38.2%) 9-19-2 (30.0%)

Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate)

Florida Panthers (32-27-6) 70 219 (7th) 217 (23rd) +2 3.37 (9th) 3.34 (23rd) 18-10-3 (58.1%) 14-17-3 (41.2%)

Blackhawks vs. Panthers: Key Players

Chicago Blackhawks – Defender, Seth Jones: After trading away Max Domi and Patrick Kane, Seth Jones now leads the Blackhawks with 31 player points (10 goals, 21 assists). Jones averaged 0.4 goals, 0.3 assists, and 0.7 points in his last 10 games. I predict Jones will record 1 point against Florida. 

Florida Panthers – Left Wing, Matthew Tkachuk: The former first-round pick out of Scottsdale, AZ leads the Panthers with 81 player points (28 goals, 53 assists). Tkachuk averaged 0.1 goals, 0.7 assists, and 0.8 points in his last 10 games. I predict he will record 2 assists against Chicago. 

Blackhawks vs. Panthers: Prediction

Take the Panthers (-165) to cover the spread (-1.5). Florida is clearly the better team compared to Chicago. They score more goals, prevent fewer goals against, win more games, and have a better win-rate at home than the Blackhawks do away. After Chicago traded away some of their better players, it was clear they are tanking the season and looking to recover next year. Florida on the other hand, still has an opportunity to make the playoffs, and against a battered Blackhawks team, should have two more points by the end of the night. 

Prediction: Florida Panthers (-165) Cover Spread by the Over (6.5). Final Score: 5-2

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