Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs

By Sam Batz

 

The Toronto Maple Leafs will host the Minnesota Wild for their second matchup of the season, on Friday, Feb. 24th in Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena (7:00 PM EST, ESPN+). The Maple Leafs defeated the Wild 4-3 in Minnesota earlier this season in a game that saw goals from seven different players. Since then, Toronto has all but ensured their place in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, while Minnesota still has some work to do. The Maple Leafs will be going for the 2-0 season sweep of the Wild, while Minnesota will be out for revenge after losing to Toronto back in November. 

Wild Odds Against Toronto (+170)

The Minnesota Wild are one of those teams that are never on anyone’s radar. They seem to always be somewhere in the middle of the pack, and when it comes time for the playoffs, if they make it in, the Wild get bounced in the First Round more often than not. They have never won the Stanley Cup Finals, and the closest they came was back in 2003 when Minnesota lost the Conference Finals. The Wild are once again right in the middle of their divisional standings, however, if the regular season were to end right now, Minnesota would have a place in the postseason. Unfortunately, there are still plenty of games left in the regular season, and the Wild will need to fight for every point in order to keep their postseason spot secure. 

The Wild are 31-21-5 with 67 points through 57 games, and according to PointsBet, have a win probability of 37% against the Maple Leafs. Minnesota has a date with the Columbus Blue Jackets the night before, meaning that record will be slightly different by the time they face the Maple Leafs. Regardless, Minnesota has won three consecutive games, are currently tied for 3rd in the Central Division, and are neck and neck with the Colorado Avalanche for 7th place in the Western Conference. Left Winger, Kirill Zaprizov, leads the Wild with 67 players points (33 goals, 34 assists), followed by Right Winger Mats Zuccarello’s 56 player points (20 goals, 36 assists). Both Wingers will need to be at their best in order to keep the pressure on Toronto. 

Maple Leafs Odds Against Minnesota (-206)

The Maple Leafs, Canada’s most appropriately named team, are 35-15-8 with 78 points through 58 games. They are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games, and are coming off a 6-3 victory over the Buffalo Sabres in their last matchup. Toronto is back home Friday after a short two-game road trip, where they went 1-1, but will be back on the road for a five-game road-trip after the matchup with Minnesota. Toronto is much better at home (win-rate: 68.8%), which will give them the edge they need against Minnesota.

PointsBet is giving Toronto a 63% chance to beat the Wild on Friday.The Maple Leafs are currently 2nd in the Atlantic Division (13-points behind the division leading Bruins), 4th in the Eastern Conference, and have >99% chance to make the playoffs. They are one of five teams who have scored 200 or more goals, and in their last 5 games, averaged 4.40 goals per contest. Right Winger Mitchell Marner leads Toronto with 71 player points (20 goals, 51 assists), followed closely by fellow Right Winger, William Nylander, who has 68 player points off of 32 goals and 36 assists. The Maple Leafs have 4 players with at least 20 goals this season, and will rely heavily on these goal scorers to outpace an underrated Minnesota defense. 

Wild Vs. Maple Leafs Season Stats

Minnesota Wild (31-21-5) 67 163 (25th) 159 (10th) +4 31.2 (18th) 2.86 (25th) 2.79 (11th) 19-10-2 (61.3%) 12-11-3 (46.2%)

Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff Shots/GP GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate)

Toronto Maple Leafs (35-15-8) 78 200 (5th) 155 (8th) +45 32.3 (15th) 3.45 (7th) 2.67 (6th) 22-6-4 (68.8%) 13-9-4 (50.0%)

Wild Vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

Minnesota Wild 22-35 record ATS this season 13-13 record ATS on the road 11-12 record ATS against the East 23-30-4 O/U record this season 2-8 O/U record in the last 10 games 4-8-2 record as the Underdogs 2-7-2 record as Underdogs on the road

Toronto Maple Leafs 26-32 record ATS this season 12-20 record ATS at home 9-15 record ATS against the West 27-28-3 O/U record this season 6-3-1 O/U record in the last 10 games 30-13-7 record as the Favorites 22-5-4 record as Favorites at home

Wild Vs. Maple Leafs OddsBetting odds courtesy of PointsBet:

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Minnesota Wild	+1.5 (-165)	Ov 6 (-121)	+170
Toronto Maple Leafs	-1.5 (+140)	Un 6 (+100)	+206

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Prediction

Bet on the Maple Leafs to win the game. Toronto has the 4th best record/point total (78 pts) in the NHL, and are extremely tough to beat at home. Compared to the Wild, the Maple Leafs are better on both sides of the puck; averaging more goals for, and less goals against. The Wild and Maple Leafs have allowed a comparable number of total goals, but on offense, Toronto has the edge, scoring 37 more goals this season than Minnesota. Lastly, the Wild play the Maple Leafs in the second game of a back-to-back, meaning they will face a tough opponent on the road without any rest, adding an additional obstacle to an already rocky path. 

• Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline and the Under; Final Score 3-1

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