Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning

By Sam Batz

The Tampa Bay Lightning are prepping the ice as they gear up to host the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday, March 12th (7:00 PM EST, NHLPP/ESPN+) for their second meeting of the season. The Jets won the first matchup 4-2 back in January when the Lightning visited Winnipeg. Now it’s the Jets turn to hit the road, as they begin a three game road trip, starting March, 11th against the Panthers. The Lightning also have a game on the 11th, against the Blackhawks, meaning neither Winnipeg nor Tampa Bay will get much rest before they face one another. The opening Moneyline has Tampa Bay favored at -196, and the underdog Jets priced at +160. 

Winnipeg Jets Breakdown (+160)

The Winnipeg Jets are 36-26-3 with 75 points through 65 games. They are 4th in the Central Division and 8th in the Western Conference (9 points out of 1st). They have a 63% chance to make the playoffs, and are projected to end the campaign with 94 points. In their last 10 games, the Jets have struggled, posting a 2-6-2 record, and averaging 2.7 goals for and 3.9 against. Winnipeg has dropped back-to-back matchups, the most recent on Wednesday, when they lost 4-2 against Minnesota in a game where the Jets peppered the goal with 48 shots, but only scored twice (conversion rate: 4.2%). 

The Jets will be the underdogs in Sunday’s matchup with the Lightning. Winnipeg has fewer points (2 less wins), scores less goals per game, and are less likely to make the playoffs. The Jets are 7-11-1 (win-rate: 36.8%) as underdogs on the road. They have allowed nearly 4 goals per game over the last 10 games, and against a Tampa Bay team that has scored the 6th-most goals (226), the Jets could be in for a rude awakening. The Jets won’t be expected to win, according to the current odds, but with a postseason berth on the line, Winnipeg needs to buckle down and get as many points as possible before it’s too late. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown (-196)

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 38-21-6 with 82 points through 65 games. They are 3rd in the Atlantic Division and 5th in the Eastern Conference final. The Lightning are projected to finish the season with 103 points, and as of today, have >99% chance to make the playoffs. However, Tampa Bay has lost 7 of their last 10 games (3-4-3 in L10), averaging 3.3 goals for and 4.0 goals against. Tampa Bay is coming off a 4-3 overtime loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday, and will look to get things back on track as the regular season begins to wane. 

Tampa Bay is the favorite in the matchup with Winnipeg, but did fall to the Jets earlier this season. In their first meeting, on January, 6th, the Lightning held Winnipeg to just 20 shots, but still lost. It was a rare misstep for Tampa Bay, who went 9-4-0 in January, but have since fallen off, posting a 1-2-2 record for March. The Lightning are still in prime position to make the playoffs, but have lost all momentum. Fortunately, they are in the middle of a four-game stretch at home, where Tampa Bay has a win-rate of 69.7% (23-5-5), and can regain their composure.

Jets vs. Lightning: Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Winnipeg Jets	N/A	Ov 6.5 (+100)	+160
Tampa Bay Lightning	N/A	Un 6.5 (-121)	-196

We are supported by Caesar Sportsbook. Click here to get up to $1,250 back as a bet credit on your first wager with Caesar.

Jets vs. Lightning: Betting Trends

Winnipeg Jets 35-30 19-12 (Away) 12-14 (vs. East) 20-40-5 5-4-1 13-15-1 (as Underdogs) 7-11-1 (Underdogs Away)

Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away)

Tampa Bay Lightning 29-36 18-15 (Home) 15-15 (vs. West) 34-23-8 7-2-1 35-12-6 (as Favorites) 22-5-5 (Favorites Home)

Jets vs. Lightning: Key Players

Winnipeg Jets – Defender, Josh Morrissey: Winnipeg’s top-defender has recorded the second-most points for his side with 67 player points (15 goals, 52 assists). He leads the Jets in assists, and in his last 10 games, averaged 1.10 points per game. I predict Morrissey will post at least 1 assist against Tampa Bay. 

 Tampa Bay Lightning – Right Wing, Nikita Kucherov: The 29-year old out of Maikop, Russie leads his team with 94 player points (26 goals, 68 assists). Kucherov has the second-most assists and the third-most points in the league. In his last 10, he averaged 1.0 assist per game, lit the lamp 5 times,and posted 1.5 points per contest. I predict Kucherov will record 2 points against Winnipeg. 

Jets vs. Lightning: Season Stats

Winnipeg Jets (36-26-3) 75 200 (18th) 182 (12th) +18 3.08 (18th) 2.80 (10th) 21-11-2 (61.8%) 15-15-1 (48.4%)

Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate)

Tampa Bay Lightning (38-21-6) 82 226 (6th) 200 (T-14th) +26 3.48 (6th) 3.08 (15th) 23-5-5 (69.7%) 15-16-1 (46.9%)

Jets vs. Lightning: Prediction

Take the Tampa Bay Lightning (-196) to beat the Winnipeg Jets. Tampa Bay hasn’t looked great in recent weeks, but neither have the Jets. At home, the Lightning are a tough opponent, and the Jets don’t travel very well, winning just under half of their games on the road. Every game from here on out has playoff implications, and while the Lightning are in a strong position to see the postseason, nothing is certain, and Tampa Bay can’t afford to sit back and take this one easy. The Jets will come out hot, with a lot of energy, but if Tampa can weather the initial storm, they should be able to secure the 2-points when the final buzzer sounds. 

Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning (-196) Moneyline and the Under (6.5). Final Score: 3-2

By clicking here you can see OSB’s amazing sports betting packages. There are monthly, weekly, and daily options which are designed to fit the needs of every sports betting enthusiast. 

Click here to visit OSB’s other blog posts where you can get expert advice on every game, team, and player, which will improve your chances at winning.