Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs

By Sam Batz

The Carolina Hurricanes begin a three game road trip against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday, March 17th (7:00 PM EST, NHLPP/ESPN+). The Hurricanes have faced the Maple Leafs just once this season and lost 1-3 in Carolina. Now it’s the Maple Leafs turn to host the Canes, who will be out for revenge after dropping the first matchup. ESPN’s most recent power rankings have the Hurricanes at no. 2 and the Maple Leafs at no. 3, making this matchup a must watch game. Toronto is currently favored at -125, despite being ranked below Carolina, while the Hurricanes are priced at +105. 

Carolina Hurricanes Breakdown (+105)

The Canes are 44-14-8 with 96 points. They lead the Metropolitan Division by 2-points (New Jersey Devils trail with 94 points) and are 2nd in the Eastern Conference, behind only the Boston Bruins who they trail by 9-points. Carolina, while not technically not officially in, have a very good chance to make the playoffs. In fact, they have the 3rd-best odds (13%) to win the entire thing this year. The Hurricanes went 6-4-0 in their last 10 games, and will enter the rematch with Toronto on the back of a 5-3 victory over the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, which snapped a 2 game losing streak for the Canes. 

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown (-125)

The Maple Leafs are 40-18-9 with 89 points through 67 games. They are 2nd in the Atlantic Division, trailing Boston by 16 points, and 4th in the Eastern Conference.Toronto will make the playoffs, as they are projected to end the regular season with 107 points, but are not considered a favorite to win the Stanley Cup (5% chance). The Maple Leafs, like the Hurricanes, have won 6 of their last 10, but unlike the Hurricanes, Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses, against the Sabres and Avalanche, which both ended by a 1 goal margin. Regardless, Toronto is still the favorite at home where they win 66.7% of the time. 

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Team	Spread (Current)	Total (Current)	Moneyline (Current)
Carolina Hurricanes	+1.5 (-245)	Ov 6 (-110)	+105
Toronto Maple Leafs	-1.5 (+195)	Un 6 (-110)	-125

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Hurricanes vs. Maples Leafs Season Stats

Carolina Hurricanes (44-14-8) 96 218 (14th) 166 (2nd) +52 3.30 (12th) 2.52 (2nd) 24-8-2 (70.6%) 20-6-6 (62.5%)

Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate)

Toronto Maple Leafs (40-18-9) 89 227 (T-8th) 179 (T-4th) +48 3.39 (9th) 2.67 (5th) 24-7-5 (66.7%) 16-11-4 (51.6%)

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

Carolina Hurricanes 28-38 14-18 (Away) 17-18 (vs. East) 28-36-2 3-6-1 3-3-2 (as Underdogs) 3-3-2 (Underdogs Away)

Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away)

Toronto Maple Leafs 30-37 13-23 (Home) 18-18 (vs. East) 29-33-5 3-5-2 33-16-8 (as Favorites) 24-6-5 (Favorites Home)

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Top-Players

Carolina Hurricanes – Brent Burns (Defender) – The Hurricanes are all about defense and Burns is the focal point of that strategy. He is 4th on the team with 51 points (12 goal, 39 assists) which is impressive for a defender. Burns loves to push deep into enemy territory, where he has recorded the most assists (39) on the year for the Canes. In his last 10, he averaged 0.7 assist per game and recorded 1 assists in this year’s previous matchup against Toronto. I predict Burns will post at least 1 assist against the Maple Leafs once again on Friday. 

Toronto Maple Leafs – Mitchell Marner (Right Wing): You can’t talk about the Maple Leafs without mentioning 25-year old Mithcell Marner. He leads the team with 86 points (24 goals, 62 assists) which is the 7th most in the league. Marner has the most assists on the team and the 4th most across the NHL. In his last 10, Marner averaged 1.60 assists and 2.0 points per game (4 goals, 16 assists). He’s been a playmaking machine all year, and I predict Mitchell Marner will record at least 1 assists against the Hurricanes on Friday. 

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

I like Carolina (+105) in this one. The Hurricanes averaged 2.9 goals and 2.0 goals against in their last 10 (goal differential +0.9), while Toronto averaged 3.3 goals and 2.7 goals against in their last 10 (goal differential +0.6). It’s no surprise their numbers are so similar given that they are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but Carolina has given themselves a slight edge over the Maple Leafs. The Hurricanes have allowed fewer goals on the season, while creating more chances to score than Toronto. Carolina averages 34.9 shots per game, while the Maple Leafs average 31.9. Moreover, the Canes prevent fewer shots (25.7) than the Maple Leafs (28.9), which leads me to believe Carolina will have more opportunities to sneak one past Toronto’s goalie, in what will be a tightly contested Eastern Conference showdown. 

Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes (+105) Moneyline and the Under (6). Final Score 3-2

 

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