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Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars: NHL Conference Finals Game 6 Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
The Western Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on Monday, May 29th with a pivotal Game 6 matchup between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights (8:00 PM EST, ESPN). The Golden Knights led the series 3-0, but the Dallas Stars are firing back and after winning two-straight, trail 2-3 against Vegas. It looked like the Stars were down and out, but their tenacity and skill in Games 4 and 5 put them right back in the running. The Golden Knights remain the favorites to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals, but Dallas isn’t making things easy. The Stars narrowly won Game 4 in overtime, keeping their season alive and avoiding the sweep. They then won 4-2 in Game 5, holding the Golden Knights under 3 goals for the second-consecutive matchup, and now enter Game 6 as the favorites to win and force a Game 7.
The Vegas Golden Knights (+1.5; ML +110)
The Golden Knights ended the season as the best in the West, but squandered their 3-0 lead by allowing the Stars to fight their way back from the brink of elimination. The Knights are 11-5 (68.8%) in these playoffs with a +11 goal differential, the best of the three remaining teams. Against Dallas, Vegas is averaging 3.50 goals per game, and allowing 2.40 goals against. The Golden Knights enter Game 6 as the underdogs, and their once great odds to reach the Finals (95%) have diminished (78%). According to FiveThirtyEight, the Golden Knights have a 44% chance to win, and unless they tighten it up on defense and limit Dallas’ shots on goal, Vegas will incur their third straight loss and be forced to play a Game 7.
The Dallas Stars (-1.5; ML -131)
Only four teams in the history of the NHL have ever comeback from an 0-3 deficit, but despite the odds, the Dallas Stars are looking to become the fifth. Dallas is having a rather up-and-down postseason, but right now, they are up! The Stars failed to show up in a crucial Game 3, but bounced back with wins in Games 4 and 5, cutting Vegas’ lead to just 1 game. Dallas is favored to win Game 6, but with a 7-6 (53.8%) record as favorites, victory is certainly no guarantee. The Golden Knights are 6-3 (66.7%) as underdogs, and 5-2 (71.4%) on the road, meaning the Dallas Stars have their work cut out for them in their 3rd-straight win-or-go-home matchup.
Golden Knights vs. Stars: Game 6 Odds
Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Vegas Golden Knights | +1.5 (-250) | Ov 5.5 (-115) | +110 |
Dallas Stars | -1.5 (+200) | Un 5.5 (-105) | -131 |
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Golden Knights vs. Stars: Postseason Stats
Vegas Golden Knights 56 45 +11 3.50 2.81 30.1 32.9 6-3-0 (66.7%) 5-2-0 (71.4%) | Stat Type Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Shots/GP Shots Against/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Dallas Stars 59 55 +4 3.28 3.06 31.1 29.3 6-3-0 (66.7%) 4-5-0 (44.4%) |
Golden Knights vs. Stars: Postseason Betting Trends
Vegas Golden Knights
- 10-6 ATS in the postseason
- 6-1 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
- 9-7 O/U record in the postseason
- 6-3-0 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
- 4-2-0 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason
Dallas Stars
- 10-8 ATS in the postseason
- 4-5 ATS at HOME in the postseason
- 10-8 O/U record in the postseason
- 7-6-0 as FAVORITES in the postseason
- 6-3-0 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason
Golden Knights vs. Stars: Game 6 Prediction
Take the Golden Knights to win Game 6 and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. Vegas has played outstanding defense this series, but Dallas’ Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Jason Robertson are looking to change that. The Stars big-three have combined for 26 goals in the playoffs, and the Golden Knights starting Goaltender, Adin Hill, will be tasked with keeping them out of his goal. But Dallas is averaging less than 3 goals per game, and on the road, Vegas has only lost twice (5-2-0) all postseason. I don’t see Vegas losing 3-straight, and while the Stars have 3 more goals than Vegas, the Golden Knights have allowed 10 fewer goals than Dallas, and as we all know, defense wins championships.
Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (+110)
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