Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

By Sam Batz

The Buffalo Sabres will visit their neighbors in the North when they hit the road to face division rivals the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday, March 13th (7:30 PM EST, NHLPP/ESPN+). It will be the third game of the season between Toronto and Buffalo. The Sabres have yet to beat the Maple Leafs, going 0-2-0 against them on the season. The Maple Leafs average 5.5 goals per game against the Sabres, while Buffalo averages just 2.5 goals per game against Toronto. The current Moneyline has the Maple Leafs favored at -255, while the Sabres are priced at +226 as the underdogs. 

Buffalo Sabres Breakdown (+226)

The Buffalo Sabres are 32-28-5 with 69 points through 65 games. They are 6th in the Atlantic Division, 19 points behind the Maple Leafs, and are 12th in the Eastern Conference. The Sabres know how to score, racking up the 3rd-most goals for (237), but they have allowed nearly just as many, giving up the 6th-most goals against (235). The Sabres have yet to beat Toronto this season, and are once again the underdogs, where they are 21-22-4 (win-rate: 44.7%). Buffalo has lost 4 consecutive games, posting a 4-5-1 record over their last 10, and will not be expected to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday. 

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown (-255)

The Maple Leafs are a favorite to make the playoffs and are currently 40-17-8 with 88 points through 65 games, and are 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 4th in the Eastern Conference. Toronto can get it done on either side of the ice, averaging over 3 goals per game and posting a goal differential of +49. They are 2-0-0 against the Sabres, scoring a combined 11 goals while holding Buffalo’s potent offense to just 5 total goals. The Maple Leafs will reprise their role as favorites, where they are 33-15-7 (win-rate: 60.0%), and have a goal differential of +41. They are 7-3-0 in their last 10, coming off back-to-back wins, and are expected to beat the Sabres for the third time this season. 

Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Buffalo Sabres	N/A	Ov 7 (+109)	+226
Toronto Maple Leafs	N/A	Un 7 (-120)	-255

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Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: Betting Trends

Buffalo Sabres 37-28 21-10 (Away) 18-16 (vs. East) 37-27-1 6-4 21-22-4 (as Underdogs) 15-10-1 (Underdogs Away)

Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away)

Toronto Maple Leafs 30-35 13-21 (Home) 18-17 (vs. East) 29-32-4 4-5-1 33-15-7 (as Favorites) 24-5-4 (Favorites Home)

Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: Season Stats

Buffalo Sabres (32-28-5) 69 237 (3rd) 235 (27th) +2 3.65 (3rd) 3.62 (27th) 13-18-3 (38.2%) 19-10-2 (61.3%)

Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate)

Toronto Maple Leafs (40-17-8) 88 223 (9th) 174 (T-4th) +49 3.43 (7th) 2.68 (T-5th) 24-6-4 (70.6%) 16-11-4 (51.6%)

Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: Key Players

Buffalo Sabres – Right Wing, Tage Thompson: The big 6’6” Thompson leads Buffalo with 86 player points (42 goals, 44 assists). He averaged 1.4 points per game in his last 10, and averaged 1 point per game against the Maple Leafs this season. I predict Thompson will record at least 1 point against Buffalo.  

Toronto Maple Leafs – Right Wing, Mitchell Marner: The 25-year old Canadian leads the Maple Leafs with 83 player points (24 goals, 59 assists). Marner averaged 1.3 assists per game in his last 10. He has 7 total assists against the Sabres this season and I predict he will add to that total by recording at least 1 assist against Buffalo on Monday. 

Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: Prediction

Take the Maple Leafs (-255) to win the game. Compared to the Sabres, Toronto is the better team, especially at home. The Maple Leafs are winning over 70% of their home games, while the Sabres win less than 40% of the time on the road. Additionally, Buffalo doesn’t have a defense capable of stopping the Maple Leafs, who are averaging 3.7 goals per game in the last 10. Toronto has more momentum coming into this one, and the floundering Sabres will have a hard time turning it around against the second-best team in their division. 

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