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Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins
By Sam Batz
On Thursday, April 6th the Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Beantown to take on the NHL’s leading force, the Boston Bruins (7:00 PM EST, ESPN+). The Bruins are far and away the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. The Maple Leafs clinched a playoff position as a top-three team in the Atlantic, but trail Boston by 23 points in the same division. The Bruins are favored in Thursday’s matchup with the moneyline priced at -155, while the Maple Leafs are set at +130 as the underdogs. Boston leads the series 2-1-0 against Toronto, and as the best team in the NHL, will be expected to win Thursday night in Boston.
Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown (+130)
The Maple Leafs are in the postseason for the 7th consecutive season, but they haven’t won the Stanley Cup Trophy since 1967. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Maple Leafs have an 8% chance to make it to the finals, and a 4% chance to win them, priced at +900. Toronto has 5 games left before the playoffs and are 46-21-10 with 102 points. They average 3.39 goals per game (9th) and give up 2.74 goals against (9th). The Maple Leafs went 6-3-1 (13 pts) in their last 10 games and are coming off a predictable win over the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets, but on Thursday night, Toronto faces the toughest challenger there is.
Boston Bruins Breakdown (-155)
The Boston Bruins sit on the precipice of NHL glory. They are the greatest team hockey has seen in a generation, and with 5 games left in a historical season, the Bruins are just 7 points away from breaking the all-time points record of 132 set by Montreal in 1976. Boston has the best record at 60-12-5 with 125 points through 77 games, leading the Atlantic Division by 23 points, and the entire Eastern Conference by 16. The Bruins are being given a 49% chance to make it to the finals, and at +300, are the favorites to win it as well. Boston wins 80.6% of the time when they are favored, and 81.6% of the time when they are home; given those numbers, they will certainly be expected to beat the Maple Leafs Thursday night.
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Odds
Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-197) | Ov 6 (-110) | +130 |
Boston Bruins | -1.5 (+172) | Un 6 (-110) | -155 |
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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: Season Stats
Toronto Maple Leafs (46-21-10) 102 261 (T-9th) 211 (8th) +50 3.39 (9th) 2.74 (9th) 26-8-6 (65.0%) 20-13-4 (54.1%) | Stat Type Pts Total GF Total GA G Diff GF/GP GA/GP Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Boston Bruins (60-12-5) 125 282 (2nd) 163 (1st) +119 3.66 (2nd) 2.12 (1st) 31-4-3 (81.6%) 29-8-2 (74.4%) |
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: Betting Trends
Toronto Maple Leafs 34-43 19-18 (Away) 22-23 (vs. East) 35-37-5 6-4 8-3-1 (as Underdogs) 8-2-1 (Underdogs Away) | Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away) | Boston Bruins 43-34 20-18 (Home) 26-19 (vs. East) 33-39-5 5-5 54-8-5 (as Favorites) 30-4-3 (Favorites Home) |
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: Game Changers
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Mitchell Marner leads Toronto with 95 points (28 goals, 67 assists) and has 1 goal and 4 assists through 3 games against Boston
- Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares all have 30+ goals this season, combining for 108 scores (41.4% of Toronto’s goals)
- Ilya Samsonov leads all Toronto Goaltenders with 39 games played, he is 25-10-4 (14th) and averages 2.41 GA/G (6th); against Boston he averages 3.60 GA/G
Boston Bruins
- David Pastrnak leads Boston with 103 points (56 goals, 47 assists) and has 1 goal and 1 assist through 3 games against Toronto
- Linus Ullmark leads all Boston Goaltenders with 47 games played, he is 38-6-1 (1st) and averages 1.91 GA/G (1st); against Toronto he averages 2.35 GA/G
- The Boston Bruins have the top-rated defense, allowing the fewest total goals against (163), and average 2.33 goals against per game versus Toronto
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Prediction
Take the Boston Bruins to win the game (moneyline). The Bruins are without a doubt the best team in the NHL this year. They post a ridiculous goal differential (+119), have an impenetrable defense, and are playing at top-form. Boston went 9-1-0 in their last 10 games, winning three straight, and are looking like a team that could break the 47-year old points record. Toronto is a solid team that could pull off the upset, but with Boston’s skill on the ice, it’s hard to go against them.
Prediction: Boston Bruins Moneyline (-155) and the Under (6)
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