Will Colin Kaepernick Get An NFL Chance?

 

Following his first NFL workout since 2016, how likely is a Kaepernick return?

 

Leading up to Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season, Colin Kaepernick, largely due to his decision to kneel during the national anthem, had the best selling jersey in the NFL, and, simultaneously, was voted the most disliked player in the league, all while slated to be the backup quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers.  Although he hasn’t played in a NFL game in over five years, Kaepernick has remained one of the most polarizing topics in football.

 

Since then, his lawsuit against the NFL, throwing sessions, and off-the-field endeavors have kept him relevant amongst NFL fans.  Following multiple claims by Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis that he has given his coaches and general managers his blessing to sign Kaepernick since 2017, the Raiders brought the former 49ers quarterback in for his first official workout with an NFL team since his departure from the league.

 

While the Raiders haven’t said much about the visit, Ian Rapaport of the NFL Network reported that the workout went well and that the free agent quarterback was impressive.  There have also been reports that two other teams have interest in Kaepernick.  All of this has led to renewed debate and speculation regarding Kaepernick’s potential future in the NFL.

Where would Kaepernick be a fit?

If Kaepernick is brought back into the league, it will surely be as a backup quarterback, but what teams would make sense?  Following a workout, the Raiders seem like a logical option, and their odds of signing Kaepernick are currently +200.  The Raiders have a starter in place in Derek Carr, but their quarterback room becomes shaky afterwards, with Nick Mullens, Jared Stidham, and rookie Chase Garbers as the only other quarterbacks on the roster entering training camp.  The workout combined with the lack of depth behind Carr have skyrocketed the chances that the team adds Kaepernick.  Without a mobile quarterback on the roster, Kaepernick could also serve a purpose as a scout team quarterback in practice.

 

The Seattle Seahawks are another potential option, as head coach Pete Carroll has also shown interest in the quarterback in the past.  Kaepernick previously interviewed with the Seahawks before having a workout with the team canceled.  After trading long-time starter Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, the Seahawks quarterback room leaves a lot to be desired, as Drew Lock, Geno Smith, Jacob Eason, and Levi Lewis are the only quarterbacks on Seattle’s roster.  

 

Although the Seahawks seem like a potential destination for either Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield or 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, if neither of those quarterbacks are acquired they could then pivot back to Kaepernick.  Following a workout with Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett, the team was viewed as the favorite to sign Kaepernick with their odds sitting at +600.  Following his workout with the Raiders, those odds have shifted to +750.

 

While there could be other potential suitors to follow, most NFL organizations have yet to show a public interest or willingness to sign the quarterback.  There are several teams that could use help at the position, although after such a long time away from the game, it is hard to know how much help Kaepernick can offer without evaluating him.

Will Kaepernick Be Signed?

While the Raiders workout is a step in the right direction for Kaepernick making it back to the NFL, he has yet to receive a contract offer.  Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon doesn’t believe that he will, although he would like to see Kaepernick back in the NFL.  Moon recently stated that he doesn’t see it happening because “those owners, they have a very close-knit unit and once they make their minds up that they don’t want to do something, it doesn’t happen.”

 

Moon made these comments before Kaepernick’s workout with the Raiders, which has led to renewed belief that Kaepernick could someday play in the NFL.  Before the workout, the odds sat at -200 that Kaepernick would remain unsigned, but have since moved to -105.  While this situation is a very unique one, it does show that the possibility Kaepernick plays again is picking up steam.

 

Ultimately, Kaepernick should be signed if he has the talent to play, and he shouldn’t be if he doesn’t.  The goal in the NFL is to win games, and if Raiders coach Josh McDaniels or Seahawks coach Pete Carroll believe that Kaepernick can help the team do that then he should be offered a contract.  On the contrary, if he is viewed as incapable of performing at the same level after such a long time away from the league, then he shouldn’t be.

It does seem that Kaepernick is making this comeback attempt out of, either, a love for the game or the desire to prove his naysayers wrong, which could be encouraging for a team if they do sign him.  He doesn’t need backup quarterback money and he no longer needs the NFL’s platform so it must be competitiveness driving his comeback attempt.

 

With all of that said, it is still hard to envision Kaepernick back in the NFL, even after his recent workout.  Although all of the reports are that he has kept in playing shape and continued to hold private workouts, he has spent so long away from the game and live competition that it is impossible to know what he is capable of doing on the field.  Add in that there are likely owners who will refuse to sign him for reasons such as kneeling or his lawsuit against them and it appears Kaepernick’s options would be limited.

 

At 34, Kaepernick is running out of time to make an NFL return, and if he doesn’t sign with the Raiders, Seahawks, or some mystery suitor this offseason, then the door could permanently shut.  While he performed well when he last played, that was a long time ago, and, even with kneeling during the anthem becoming more common across sports, it feels like if Kaepernick was going to be signed, it would have happened several years ago.