Week 18 NFL Review | NFL Game Picks | Podcast | Beat the Edge

All right. Welcome back, everyone, Tommy D, here it is Friday, January 7 2022. And this is all week 18 for our podcast bet the edge. I can’t believe the season is basically ending at least the regular season. We’re going to be covering a lot of good stuff here. On today’s show. We got games on Saturday, we got games on Sunday. We got the championship game on Monday, Georgia, Alabama. Let me get right to it. I want to introduce my two esteemed co hosts. We got Mr. Scott Matthews from at SM sports pics. And we got Dre Fernandez from online sports bet.com Fellas, it’s been a long season. How’s everyone doing?

What’s going on? Go ahead, right

I’m doing Wow by yourselves guys.

Just trying to stay safe man just trying to stay out of the COVID zone right now everyone out there is getting getting cases a COVID. So we’re just trying to just stay low and find winners for you guys out there. Great weekend action. I’ll tell you what the weekend looks really really strong.

Yeah, a lot of moving landmines right now in a lot of different situations. These lines are all over the road. I mean, college basketball games are being canceled.

It’s it’s really a difficult scenario out there. What’s happening, it’s it’s kind of day to day, we’re gonna try to do our best here. We can’t predict the future, of course, but assuming everything stays the same. We’re gonna have some real good predictions here. All right, before we get to the show of vehicle if you’re tuning in for the first time, first of all, welcome. You could follow this show at any time, all you have to do is just hit the subscribe button. And you’re going to be notified every time we come with a new podcast. In addition, we do daily videos every day, we put out three actually.

So you definitely want to tune in to online sports bet. Alright, and if you like what you see here, we hope you do show a little love. Give us a big like we appreciate the support. All right, we’re going to be talking about both games on Saturday.

We’re going to be talking about a game on Sunday here and the championship game now. I wish we could put every game out there’s just not enough time to do so. So if you want all our other selections, alright, you can get them on our website, online sports bet calm all you got to do is register and we’re gonna send you additional plays via email or tax. Absolutely free. So all you got to do is go to the site online sports bet.com and register and we’ll be releasing plays the entire weekend. And also Scott’s going to explain how you can get his selections on Instagram.

You could find him at SM sports pics.com Or just at SM sports pics as far as Instagram. I a couple of just new stuff that’s going on here. I mean the intent on Antonio Browns saga continues. He says he was injured the coach says he wasn’t injured now does an Instagram model saying she spent the night with him before the game that that really matters. He’s a grown man he could do what he wants. But I’m just what’s your take on this guy? What do you think took him to a point where took the shirts off and just walks off?

Well, this guy’s had issues you know, for years already. I mean, he had issues of Pittsburgh he had issues you know with New England he’s had issues obviously Tom Brady went to bat for this guy cuz he saw the talent that he this guy is I mean, when this guy’s heads on, he’s he’s a major talent in the NFL, one of the best receivers probably in the league for many years straight. So this guy is a true talent. I mean, you got to battle for a guy like this.

Obviously, Brady went out on the limb brought them in somehow convinced the coach Coach didn’t really want any part of them I don’t think from the beginning Bruce area, so he really didn’t want anything to do with this guy. A lot of people didn’t want anything to do with this guy. But you know, he’s just it’s gonna be a he said she said situation here. I mean, he’s gonna say what he you know what he believes they’re going to say what they believe at the end of the day, we ever gonna find out the real truth on this.

Who’s to say, you know that he’s got text messages with the coach. They got things saying that, you know, it wasn’t wanted, you know, thinks that what he’s saying is, so you know what, it’s just a soap opera. Anything to do with that guy basically is going to be a soap opera. But again, what a talent unfold Fortunately, you know, Tom Brady’s probably a little pissed off that he’s losing talent like that at this time of the season, but they’re going to move on and like Brady said, we’re going to just use the weapons that we have, use the people that we have in our lineup and make the best of it.

Right. What’s your take? What’s your take on this guy? What do you think? I mean, Tom, Tom Brady’s got no one left. It’s Mike Evans. And that’s it. But um, I think like most you know, you got two sides of the story. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Um, but I do think Antonio Brown. I’ve been seeing stuff that he may be able to sue the Bucs if they really told him to play injured. So I mean, the Bucs are on thin ice, I would say but Antonio Brown, you know has been always known for his antics. But for me, the bigger issue is the Bucs have just lost another weapon. So the Bucs really need to lock it in here before the playoffs. You know,

Tom Brady fight seems to make these guys you know, other players he, he brings the best out of everybody. Look what he’s done in the past with Wes Welker, over the years what he did with Julian Edelman, he made these household names these guys. I mean, Tom Brady is you know, he’s a phenomenon. I mean, he makes he makes things happen and and he gets the best out of everyone, because anyone that plays for him, wants obviously the best, because they know what this guy’s all about. I mean, the bottom line is, they find ways to rise it up to different levels around Tom Brady, leading the show as the quarterback for your team.

So he’s gonna He’s gonna find some of these tight ends. He’s got some of these new tight ends, he’s got the Gronk he’s got a couple other tight ends and I you’ll see these guys pull themselves together and up to go up their game. And I wouldn’t count Tampa Bay out in any way shape or form just because they lost Antonio Brown. No way.

I mean, there is another angle, I saw a picture of that IG model. Maybe she was still back in his hotel room, and he just said screw it. Let me get back to hang out with her. So who the hell knows the true probably will never come out areas. Bruce area seems like a pretty tough dude. Yeah, he’s not gonna cave. And so long as the bags and get that. I wouldn’t want to go up against a guy like that. He just looks like a guy that takes no crap from anyone. All right, one other thing that you know, this has been out for a day or so. But you know, this could be a big, big news thing. They’re talking about moving the Superbowl from LA to Dallas. I mean, we’re talking two Super Bowls in less than a month. Now that the same because of the COVID rules and LA, they may move this game to Dallas. I mean, that would be a tremendous blow for the economy in LA. We live in a crazy world, man. I don’t know. I mean, I can’t picture that happening. But you know what, this day and age I guess anything goes but I don’t see that happen. And I really do not see that happening at all. I say in an LA that’s where it’s gonna be played.

I saw one of the NFL top officials say that they do this every year. They always have contingency plans for if the Superbowl needs to be moved for some reason, whether it’s inclement weather or something like that. So um, I really, I really think this is overblown at this point.

Yeah, I mean, logistically, I don’t even know how you could even do that. I mean, I guess it’s possible but what you’re talking about a total mess that that would that would occur. All right, well, we got two games on Saturday fellas, and you know right now 11 Out of the 11 playoff spots are clenched. This three left is going to be some games this weekend that absolutely make no sense. Some some starters may be rested there are some games that make that make a lot of sense. So let’s start with the first one Casey this line open up that the three it’s nine and a half 10 Now against Denver total 44 and a half Trey why don’t you start with this one I mean Why Why? Why is the line move so many points? Can Casey covered out those double digits?

Well first of all Tommy I want to just mention this is why you guys got to subscribe to the YouTube is right you guys got to read the the post we we are the post we post on OSB because two days ago I gave you the suns and the under last night in that game against the clippers. And I was I never make score predictions but I thought let me make one and I said 107 and 90 and the game ended 106 to 89 so correct man that was the major winner now you can catch that on our website online sports bet calm Trey is a writer for the for the site and he did nail that puppy, no doubt about it.

And we and you know those aren’t you Two guys, you got to subscribe. But for this game, I don’t know I just saw the line go eight points. I mean, I don’t like the line. I’m not going to touch that line now. But um, obviously if the chiefs were anything on there like eight for me, I was taking the chiefs, um, but I’m gonna take the over 45 Here, I’m seeing some reverse line movement. First of all, people are betting the under and the overspill went up a little bit. And then the chiefs are the fourth best scoring team in the NFL, they’re averaging 28.3 points a game and they are hot. I know they just lost to the Bengals.

But they haven’t scored less than 31 points since December 3. In their last four they’re averaging 37.2 points on the Broncos out of the playoffs they don’t really have anything to play for the chiefs are gonna put up a lot the I think the Chiefs might get this by themselves to be honest, the 45 and then the Broncos they just gave up 34 points to the charters so I’m expecting the chiefs to put up a lot of points and I think the Broncos will get enough to get the over

All right Scott What’s your take on this one Casey Denver 1010 and a half 44 and a half I mean the see an angle here see a lot of angles it looks like a one sided game if you look at the numbers on this game, it’s crazy. Crazy how it favors Casey in this game. I’ll give you just like a few numbers that make sense this seven and all against them and their last seven in Denver the road team in this series is 12 and four against the spread in the last 16 games PCs five and oh against the spread on the last five games on grass this six in one overall their last seven games as a favorite so I continue the negative side to it Denver is three and eight against the spread.

The last 11 games on grass there oh and five the last five Saturdays Forget about all that though guys because again that stats and stats Yeah, they can help you the number on this game. I don’t know when you guys were seeing threes that it opened I saw this game open to 10 It’s now up to 1111 and a half. I never saw three. So I don’t know if that was like an overnight outlaw line that came out like a week ago. But this game has been pretty much 10 point or higher spread since day one.

That game last week the KC I knew they were running into a buzzsaw. If you remember I put Cincinnati out as my best bet of the entire weekend. Because I thought Cincinnati was coming to win that game and clinch that division in the AFC north. And they got the job done. And Casey in the first half of that game, they were unstoppable. They they couldn’t score in the second half.

They only mustered three points in the whole second half. Because Cincinnati made some tremendous defensive changes in the second half of that game. But going into a game like this. I think Denver’s bags are packed. They’re on the golf course thinking about playing in somewhere in California, not even being out in the Rocky Mountains. I just think that Casey they got so much to prove they want to go into the playoffs right this year. They you know, they they want it they want to go in with a band. I think they’re gonna absolutely cover this spread. I don’t even think this game will be less than a couple of touchdowns. I just think it’s gonna be a one sided game. I don’t see how Denver is going to be able to get up for a team like this. I believe mahomes is going to get his troops all rallied up. They don’t want to go down losing two games in a row going into the playoffs.

And yet if they win the game, they’re going to rest anyways. They’re gonna have a bye number one seed, I believe in the AFC conference would be Casey Correct. Correct on that right now the Titans are heading into Titans when they got the one thing if the Titans win, right? Yeah, they played a Texan right if the Titans win they would be the number one see if the Titans lose and Casey wins Casey becomes the number one seat so they get the but they get a rest anyways, they both have a bye week. I believe the one in two seat is that correct? In the playoffs?

And I only the ones who now want to change their member. So I like I like Casey in this game a lot. I got to be honest with you. I think they’re going in there for a mission. I think they’re going to turn it up and they’re going to score as much as they want. They they have their offense is tough. And I don’t think Denver has a shot in this game. I gotta be honest, I’m looking for them to win by a couple touchdowns.

Alright, so we got the over from Dre we got the taken the favorite on Scott. The night game. Dallas Eagles big rival you know 820 staat line right now six and a half Dallas Total 42 and a half before I came on I did look check out ESPN and it was an interesting article should that should Dallas rest as starters. So you know this is a situation where a Cowboys got to win by a touchdown. Drive watch it take the LA the points.

don’t like this game with all the uncertainty. But if I had to make a choice, of course, this isn’t one of my top players. But if I had to make a pick, I would go with the Eagles plus six and a half, and I get it to seven. Um, I just think the Eagles are with the way they’re playing right now. They’re nine and seven, they clinched the playoffs, they’re hot. They’re running the ball, a ridiculous amount. They’re number one in the NFL, they’re averaging 160 rushing yards per game. That’s eight better than the next closest team, which is the Colts. I just expect the eagles to run all over everyone at this point. I’m watching their games, it’s no one can stop them. So um, I’m going to take if I had to make a pick, I would take the Eagles plus six and a half plus seven.

Alright, so you would take the point, Scott, what’s your take on this one, Dallas or eagles.

This is another interesting game because the homecooking has been so good in this series of late the last six games, these teams have played at home. The home team has covered all six of them. So home field advantage in this matchup is seems to be very important obviously anytime but six in a row the home team has covered in this series. But you know, it’s really strange to me. I’m showing different numbers in you guys again.

I see this game open that seven I’m seeing it down to places four and a half and five as we’re speaking right now. And based on all the information I’m hearing from my sources out there that the game doesn’t mean anything fulfilling at all they’re in they can advance whether they win or lose the game obviously want to go in on a high but Dallas they’re trying to maybe move up the ladder there a number four seed right now if they win the game, they can jump up to number two seed. So why is the number being so heavily moved against Dallas at this point? So my thinking and again, I’m a numbers guy, this is what I do.

I bang my head against I’m looking for every betting edge I can and I’m hearing rumblings that Philly my rest people Dallas wants to go in and play this game like a regular season any game going into the playoffs? I like Philadelphia at home in this game I think the home field advantage the way Philadelphia has been playing I think that definitely going to play this thought is I don’t think they’re going to arrest them. And I think they can definitely cause fits for Dallas Dallas is like Dr. Jekyll Mr. Hyde one week they look like the Rolls Royce.

The next week, they look like they’re shovel like from week to week sometimes is that you could scratch your head all season long with this cowboy team. But I think Philadelphia is right right now they I believe they won four straight games in a row. They come into the game right. I like the home field advantage in a game like this in a rivalry matchup. And I think Philly wants to make a statement. I would buy this number up right right now I’m showing the game of a four and a half to five. I would take Philly at home by that number up to plus six. I’m a numbers guy I look for edges that I can get. So I’m going to take Philly, I’m going to buy the number of the plus six. Take the live dog guys. The dog is barking in this one.

All right, let’s see if they balk. Now, Scott’s gonna be releasing a lot of other plays over the weekend college basketball NBA and like I said we wish we can get every NFL game on the show. We can’t so check them out on Instagram at SM sports pics, and he’ll be releasing other plays throughout the weekend. I we’re going to look at one game on Sunday a game that I think makes make sense here Steelers ravens this if I’m not mistaken this is a must win for Pittsburgh ravens right now. Six point favorite total 41 and a half starts at one o’clock. Dre. You like this one?

I mean, this line is going all over the place with Mr. Jackson just being in and out in and out. Not knowing if he’s gonna play but now I’m seeing a plus or minus five for the Ravens. I’m just I’m taking the Ravens here. I think Tyler Huntley is really bold take he’s not really that much of a drop off from Mr. Jackson they do the same thing. The margin does a little bit better. The Steelers just cannot it’s just a letdown spot for me right because the Steelers I think this line is gonna move more in the Ravens direction once one more completely gets ruled out. He did not practice or yesterday. I think that title only is gonna play and I think the line is gonna go to about minus four minus three and a half and that’s when I jumped on the Ravens on big Ben’s last home game was really emotional. I think that this is just a massive letdown spot. The Ravens both teams trying to get into the playoffs here. It’s highly unlikely for both teams as they would both need the Jaguars to beat the Colts and the Ravens are looking for revenge after they lost 20 to 19 in that Heartbreaker against the Steelers, which may have cost them the the playoffs and the Ravens are you know seventh in total offense The Steelers are 24th. And I’m taking the Ravens here. And the point

I’m going to jump totally against you on this one’s right. I think I think it’s going to work the opposite. I think, I think the emotional win. And you could call it a very emotional win the other night. With the Steelers, I think the players are going to rally around Big Ben and try to get Big Ben somehow. Yeah, it’s gonna be probably a miracle to get in the playoffs. But I think they want to go out winning for this guy.

I mean, this guy, you know, this is this is a battle the dog has always done very well in games like this.

Head to head. The dogs have been alive in series like this. And I think the number on this game is probably going to stay there and may even go higher on the game. I know, Lamar, and I don’t see Lamar Jackson playing in this game. I just Yeah, I don’t think he’s playing unless it’s like a last minute thing. But I think the Steelers are gonna take the opportunity that was handed to him the other day, when in that game, take the emotions of that game somehow bottle it up. Big Ben’s been around 18 years.

He knows what to do. He’s been in all kinds of pressure games from the biggest ones there is. And I think they’re going to rally around him. I see the Steelers coming out in this game. They won that last game. Yeah, it was a crazy game.

They went for two and missed it. They’ve done that a couple of times this year, Baltimore, and it’s come back to bite them both times and right in the right in the backside. So I like the points in this game. The dog has always been alive. They play close games, these teams normally, they usually in a range from anywhere from a couple of points to four or five points, I get this number to plus six.

Take the Steelers in this game. I see them being right in this game to keep it close. And I think the emotions of the game. And obviously with Lamar Jackson not running the show. I think the Steelers have an edge and this game is a live dog.

Alright, so we got two opposite sides here, which really makes this show somewhat interesting. I there’s one game left we were going to do a show on Monday, but I figured let’s include the National Championship game Georgia Bama before we get set. We’re also going to be everyone’s going to put their best bet out and Dre is going to put out a prop bet. So that’s how we’re going to end the show here. But let’s talk about Georgia, Alabama. I mean, it seems every year these two teams are up their current line, Bulldogs three total 51 and a half. I mean, it doesn’t get better than this. Scott, what’s your take? Who do you go with? On something like this?

Guys, listen to me. Big games. I’m the big guy. Big capital right here. When it comes to these type of games, I love them. I love this game so much. I’m putting this out to only my VIP clients only guys. This is a game I’m reserving for my private clientele. I’ve been on this game. I follow these teams all year long. I follow Nick Saban for years. I follow this Georgia program for years. I Kirby smart knows what he’s doing. Nick Saban knows what he’s doing. They both have talented squads that I cannot even release I’m releasing this game AMI as a private play. If if they want to get it they did come to my Instagram on Monday and I’m going to be releasing it out all they have to do is click the link on my instagram if they go to at SM sports pics, and I’m putting this game out is a premier selection. I’m national championship games the last five in a row on five and oh against the spread. And I absolutely love this game. Love it. I know the right side of this game.

Alright, well make sure you check Scott out on Instagram Instagram at SM sports books dry we’re not looking on the cut anyone here but we are going to put out a selection from online sports bed. Who do you like on this one? Right? Oh,

I also love this game. So I saw Scott was on my side here. But um, I love Georgia minus two and a half year. Um, I think that this is just I mean this number is such a trap. Like everyone’s gonna be betting Alabama after what they did to Georgia in the SEC championship. But um, Georgia’s defense is just ridiculous to me. I think they’re going to get right I think Kirby smart. He saw what his team did in that in a sec championship and he’s gonna correct it. Georgia is very good on defense. Obviously the best defense in the nation are they’ve only a lot 11 Total touchdowns to the opposing offenses while I’m Alabama has about 31 Um, they just crushed Michigan who if you remember dominated Ohio State, and then the red zone this is this is it for me Scott. You know Scott used to tell me the game is won in the red zone. Right Georgia’s defense is number one in redzone percentage, they 571. They allow the next closest team is at 645. Alabama is 75th. In the nation, they’ve allowed 31 scores was an 838 percentage, while Jordan has allowed 16 score to the 571 percentage. So I think Georgia is defense in the red zone is going to win this game for Georgia by at least a few.

And you know, these teams know each other. So Well, I mean, Kirby smart used to be part of the Nick Saban group, you know, when he was with Al with Nick Saban, and took this program over and turned it into a powerhouse, Nick Saban just keeps on rolling year after year, finds, you know, whoever leaves he fills in the spots with, you know, more talent that seems that the the year after, it’s incredible what he’s done in Alabama, but guys, let me tell you something, I’m so focused on this game, I am so jacked up about this game, the last time these two teams played each other, and that I nailed that game. So I know I’m on the right side of this game. And that’s why I’m putting this game out. Like I said, I’m not releasing it out as a free play, it’s going to be a premium play. So if you want to take advantage of it on Monday, come to my Instagram, I’m going to give you an opportunity where you could purchase this monster play that I’ve been sitting on this game for the last several weeks putting it together. And that I know I Instagram and your Instagram page again, scotch, don’t be shy, shoot, shoot it out.

My Instagram is at SM sports pics, I’ll have a video up, click the link in the bio below me. And I’ll give you the opportunity to purchase this national championship game.

Just love the game guys. You know, it’s gonna be an exciting game. But I know the right side of the game to be on. Alright, let’s get I want to do something because I want to give out another play if you don’t mind, Tommy, because you like another game on Sunday in the NFL. The game between Seattle and Arizona. So I’d like to make that up not giving out this championship game. But given an additional play out is I really liked this game. This has been a dog series for a long time. I like Seattle in this game very much against Arizona, I think they’re going to cover that number of six and a half.

I would buy it up to seven I think they’re alive live glogg in this matchup, the road team and the underdog in this series has been super strong for a long, long time. And I think that big win by Arizona last week and making the number keeping it under seven. Really, I’m a numbers guy. Like I said I always look for a value. And I see Seattle, you don’t get many times where you can get Russell Wilson getting plus six and a half points or seven points as a live dog against the team they’ve done extremely well against.

I really liked this game a lot. I think Seattle has a shot to leave maybe even upset them. I think it’s gonna be a close game. I think it’s games going to be anywhere from two to four points. Either way, whoever wins it, and I like Seattle, I buy that number up to plus seven or even seven and a half and jump on that game guys. I just feel the dog is alive. And the dog has been huge in this matchup over the years.

Alright, so let’s do this. We’re gonna we’re gonna put that down as your best bet Scott for the weekend. I want to get to Dre right now. Who’s your best bet it doesn’t have to be anything we mentioned. It could be a game over the weekend. NFL. What would you do try on this one.

Yeah, this is this is one of my favorite plays of the year. Well, you’re just started but venture play so far this year, the Rams in the Niners over 44 and a half. This is such a massive game for both teams, the Rams need to win to win the division. The 40 Niners need to win to get into the playoffs because if the 40 Niners lose and the saints have beat the Falcons, the 40 Niners are out so there’s a huge game for both teams.

Nine is fighting for their lives. And right now the rams are playing great. They won five in a row the ninth best scoring offensive football, but it’s not like the 1400s are that far behind New the 13th best scoring offensive football. Um, I really like so right now we don’t really know who’s playing for the 40 Niners Jimmy G or Trey Lance. But I love trading. I think he’s one of the best prospects in the class and I think will be really good next year. And I think he can gash teams with his talent on the ground.

So the the Niners have had some tremendous success against the Rams, the Rams, exactly.

The Rams they scored the 49 or scored 31 points on the Rams last time they played was 31 to 10. It was it was an absolute destruction. I believe it was on primetime. And I think the rams are going to correct a little bit of that And I think they can keep up with them. And another thing to take into consideration here is that Cooper cup is going for the receiving yards record, you need about 130 yards I believe, to get to be common Johnson’s record. I don’t think the 40 Niners want that to happen again. So division rivals. And I think that’s going to open up the field for the rest of the Rams on offense. And I think they’ll be able to score points in this game. Or last. And plus, another thing to look at the last time these two teams played was all Dells first game. It was the Rams scored only 10 points, although those first game and people looked a lot into it. But oh, that was coming into the lineup, they had lost rubber woods. It was it was you know, it was a chemistry thing. So I think this game will go over 44 and a half