Unexpected Playoff Hopefuls Jags & Jets Clash On Thursday Night | OSB
Unexpected Playoff Hopefuls Clash On Thursday Night
By Sam Batz
The NFL might be the most difficult professional sports league to successfully predict. Two teams that have defied all preseason predictions are the Jacksonville Jaguars (www.jaguars.com) and the New York Jets (www.newyorkjets.com). On Thursday night, the two AFC playoff hopefuls will face each other in a must win game for both teams. The Jaguars are second in the AFC South with a 6-8 record, while the Jets are tied with the Patriots for third place in the AFC East with a 7-7 record. New York and Jacksonville will need help from other teams, but if the stars align, both of them could see the postseason for the first time in a long time.
The Jaguars have won four out of their last six games and find themselves only one game behind the division leading Tennessee Titans. Last week the Jaguars shocked the NFL after completing a 17 point comeback victory over the Dallas Cowboys. It was an impressive win for the Jags and showed everyone they are capable of competing against the best teams in the league. Jacksonville’s quarterback, Trevor Lawerance, has been playing brilliantly, throwing for 1,445 yards, combining for 14 total touchdowns, and only throwing 1 interception over their last five games. The Jaguars are the +1.5 point underdog according to Pointsbet.com, but if Lawerance can continue his hot-streak, the Jaguars are capable of beating any team.
The New York Jets are coming off a disappointing loss to the Detroit Lions last week. They had a chance to overtake the Patriots in the AFC East, but Jets quarterback Zach Wilson failed to lead his team to a scoring drive in the last two-minutes of the game. They had a shot to tie it up, but Jets kicker, Greg Zuerlein, missed a 58-yard field goal as time expired and the Lions won. The Jets enter Thursday night’s game as -1.5 point favorites and will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak in order to keep playoff hopes alive. The Jets defense will need to slow down a white-hot Jaguar offense, but with a top-tier secondary allowing the fourth fewest passing yards per game, they should be confident that they can get the job done.
It will be a close game, but I like the Jets in this one. They have an impressive secondary, led by Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, who is allowing just 193.9 passing yards per game. Jacksonville’s QB Trevor Lawerance is playing well as of late, but relies too heavily on his two best receivers, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. The Jets will blanket the Jaguar receivers all night, leaving little room for Lawerance to work. Additionally, Jacksonville is 2-5 in away games, and have a short week to prepare for a game against a tough Jets Defense. In a moneyline wager, I recommend taking the Jets.
Now let’s discuss some of the key players in this matchup, and which player props I like best for this game. As always, we are supported by Pointsbet.com. New users to the site can get two free bets of up to $2,000 when they join using the link below. https://join.pointsbet.com/2chance/?token=HJaDQL2ew_2MXwoOiAaqsGNd7ZgqdRLk&promo=CAPPER3
Evan Engram Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
Jacksonville’s tight end, Evan Engram, has 19 receptions for 224 yards over the past two games. He will likely remain a featured target in the Jaguar offense when they go up against a Jets secondary that is great at covering wide receivers, but struggles against the tight end position. Engram has a 17% target share on the season, but with Jets defenders Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed covering Jacksonville’s top wide receivers, Engram will have a lot more opportunities to see the ball. The Jaguar’s tight end will look to duplicate his career-high performance in week 14, where he was targeted 15 times, hauling in 11 receptions for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is coming in hot and I predict Engram will go over his 40.5 receiving yards prop.
Garrett Wilson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards
Garrett Wilson has at least 78 receiving yards in six of his last seven games for the Jets. This week, he goes up against a Jaguar defense that has been inconsistent against the pass, allowing 252.6 passing yards per game to opponents. Wilson is averaging 69.0 receiving yards per game and is leading all Jets receivers in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Jets QB Zach Wilson is back under center, and while his struggles have been evident, the Wilson-to-Wilson connection has remained a consistently positive feature of New York’s offense. I predict Garrett Wilson will go over his 55.5 receiving yards prop.
Travis Etienne Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Even when the Jaguars were forced to lean on a pass-heavy approach in last week’s game against the Cowboys, Etienne still saw 21 touches, getting involved in both the running and passing game. Jacksonville may lean heavily on their young running back to get the ball down the field on Thursday night. The Jets have a decent run-defense but struggled last week against the Lions, giving up 139 total yards to Detroit’s running backs. Etienne is a talented player who has been on the field for over 60% of Jacksonville’s snaps this season. New York’s secondary is expected to shut down the Jaguar wide-outs, thus leaving plenty of opportunities for Etienne. He should see a healthy amount of carries and receptions on Thursday, and I predict Etienne will go over his 90.5 rushing + receiving yards prop.
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