Browns vs. Steelers: Prediction & Player Prop Tips

By Sam Batz

In the final week of the NFL regular season, the Cleveland Browns (clevelandbrowns.com) will travel to Pittsburgh on Sunday, Jan. 8th to take on the Steelers (steelers.com). The AFC North rivals clash for the second time this season in what will be a hotly contested matchup. The Browns have been eliminated from the playoffs but the Steelers still have a chance, though it is slim. After beating the Ravens last week, Pittsburgh increased their postseason prospects significantly, but still only have a 14% chance. The Steelers will need to win on Sunday and then get some help from other AFC teams. However, the Browns will not be easy to beat, and this divisional matchup will be a close fight. 

The Browns are 7-9 and have no chance to see the postseason. Regardless, Cleveland will want to finish the season strong and get their newly acquired quarterback, Deshaun Watson, as many reps as possible. The Browns are coming off an impressive win over the Washington Commanders, winning 24-10 in a game where Watson was beginning to look like his old self. Watson only completed 9 passes, but threw for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wide Receiver Amari Cooper had a great game, posting 105 yards and 2 scores, while running back Nick Chubb recorded 104 yards off 14 carries. Overall, it was a great outing for the Browns and they will look to carry that momentum into Sunday’s game against their divisional rival. 

The Steelers are 8-8 and will need a lot of help in order to make the playoffs. However, every win-loss scenario is pointless unless Pittsburgh can beat Cleveland. The Steelers have already lost to the Browns once this season, losing 17-29 back in week 3. Nevertheless, fifteen weeks later and Pittsburgh is a different team now. They have T.J. Watt back in for the defense and Kenny Pickett has taken over for Mitch Trubisky as quarterback. Pittsburgh is 7-2 with Watt  on the field and Pickett has gone 6-6 in his first twelve games for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has won their last three games and will look to finish the season strong and keep their playoff hopes alive by beating their AFC North rivals on Sunday.  

 

Browns vs. Steelers Odds

Betting odds courtesy of Pointsbet:

• Spread: Browns +2.5; Steelers -2.5
• Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Browns +125; Steelers -145

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Bettings Trends

• The Steelers are 9-6-1 ATS 
• The Browns are 8-8 ATS 
• The Steelers are 3-3-1 ATS at home
• The Browns are 4-4 ATS on the road 
• The Steelers are 5-5-1 ATS against the AFC 
• The Browns are 5-6 ATS against the AFC
• The Steelers Over/Under record is 6-10
• The Browns Over/Under record is 7-8-1
• The Steelers are 3-2 as the Favorite 
• The Browns are 4-5 as the Underdog

 

Prediction

Back in week 3, the Browns beat the Steelers by twelve points. Their week 18 matchup on Sunday will be a much closer affair. Both teams are coming off huge wins last week and will look to finish the season on a high note. On defense, Pittsburgh and Cleveland are allowing 20.8 and 22.1 points per game respectively, and are tied in average yards allowed with 331. The Browns have the edge on offense, averaging 29.8 more yards per game than the Steelers, and scoring an average of 21.7 points compared to Pittsburgh’s 17.5. It will come down to who wants it more, and with Pittsburgh’s playoff chances still alive, they will come out focused and ready to win. 

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline and the Under. Final score: 17-14

 

Favorite Player Props

 

Nick Chubb, Browns RB, Over 70.5 Rushing Yards

Nick Chubb is chasing NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs for the title of best running back, but will need a huge game in order to catch the Raiders rushers. Chubb is 205 yards behind Jacobs with 1,448 rushing yards in 16 games. Chubb is not likely to catch Jacobs but I do expect him to have a big game on Sunday. Chubb is averaging 90.5 yards per game and recorded 113 yards off of 23 attempts the last time he faced Pittsburgh. The Steelers are giving up 106.5 rushing yards to opposing running backs and will struggle to stop one of the most powerful runners in the league. I predict Nick Chubb will go over his 70.5 rushing yards prop. 

 

Najee Harris, Steelers RB, Under 70.5 Rushing Yards

Najee Harris has had an unexpectedly mediocre season. The second-year running back came into this season with high expectations. He was averaging 20+ touches per game in 2021 and was one the top-rushers of the season. However, Harris is now averaging 18.06 touches per game and only 59.6 rushing yards per contest. He has been held under 70 yards ten times this season, and ran for only 56 yards the last time the Steelers played the Browns. Harris is coming off his first 100+ yard rushing performance last week against the Ravens, but has been too inconsistent this season for me to have faith in him to do that again. I predict Najee Harris will go under his 70.5 rushing yards prop. 

 

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