San Francisco 49ers 2022-2023 Season Preview

Is Trey Lance ready for the starting quarterback role?  Can the 49ers get back to the Super Bowl?

Kyle Shanahan has spent five years as the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.  In that span, the team has made the NFL playoffs twice, resulting in one Super Bowl appearance and an additional NFC Conference Championship appearance.  Overall, however, they are just 39-42 in the regular season.  With Jimmy Garoppolo under center, the 49ers are 31-14, however, without him, they are just 8-28.

 

According to Shanahan, the 49ers have decided to move on from Garoppolo to second-year quarterback Trey Lance.  This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise after the 49ers traded three first-round picks and a third-round pick to move up nine spots and draft Lance.  After giving up that much draft capital, it would be hard to justify sitting Lance a second straight season.

Is Trey Lance ready to be a starting NFL quarterback?

Shanahan and his staff certainly believe in Lance’s ability after they have made it clear that they are moving on from Garoppolo.  Although the team played much better with Garoppolo under center than Lance, it makes sense for the 49ers to make the quarterback change now.  Not only have they invested a lot of draft capital into Lance, but it is expected that he will make a second-year jump, which commonly occurs with quarterbacks due to more familiarity with the system and the league.

 

While Lance struggled with his accuracy, his yards per attempt were on par with Garoppolo.  His touchdown to interception ratio was actually better than Garoppolo’s, as were his yards per completion, a stat which Garoppolo actually led the NFL.  The 49ers hope is that the expected improvement that comes with being more comfortable in the NFL combined with more opportunities for Lance will lead to him surpassing Garoppolo’s ceiling.

 

With star wide receiver Deebo Samuel seemingly less willing to take snaps at running back, the offense could suffer even if there is a seamless transition from Garoppolo to Lance.  Samuel’s dual threat ability as a wide receiver and running back was a big part of the 49ers success on offense.  The 49ers also will be without two 2021 Pro Bowl offensive lineman in 2022, as Alex Mack has retired and Laken Tomlinson left in free agency.

 

Replacing two Pro Bowlers on the offensive line will be difficult, but Lance’s dual threat ability should help the 49ers in that regard.  If Lance shows that he is ready for a starting role, the 49ers should be able to pick up where they left off in 2021.  As great as Garoppolo’s winning percentage is, he has shown that is capable of big mistakes, such as his key overthrow of Emmanuel Sanders in the Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs and his game-sealing interception against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Conference Championship.

Can the 49ers get back to the Super Bowl in 2022?

After losing in the Super Bowl in 2019, the 49ers nearly got back in 2021.  In both games, the 49ers entered the 4th quarter with a ten point lead, however, Garoppolo failed to lead the offense to any points.  It became clear that, while Garoppolo may be a good quarterback, the 49ers needed an upgrade.

 

With Lance now installed as the starting quarterback, the 49ers will enter the season tied with the Denver Broncos for the seventh-best odds, +1600, to win the Super Bowl.  Those odds trail only the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Chiefs, Rams, and Los Angeles Chargers.  While those teams all have established stars under center, the 49ers do not, which speaks to the level of talent elsewhere on their roster.

 

As far as winning the NFC, the 49ers currently have the fourth-best odds, +750, which trails only the Buccaneers, Packers, and Rams.  In the NFC West, the 49ers +150 odds to win the division trail only the Rams.  Their odds of making the playoffs currently sit at -225, while the over/under on their win total sits at 10 wins.

 

Their odds, and particularly their over/under should be encouraging to 49ers fans who may not have agreed with moving on from Garoppolo.  Considering that the team won 10 games last season, the oddsmakers clearly do not see the move to Lance creating any issues.  If Lance is the quarterback that the 49ers expected him to be when they moved three first-round picks to draft him then the 49ers likely won’t miss a beat.  If he struggles then it could be a long season.