Weekend NFL review |12/21/21| OSB

All right, Tommy Dee back here. It’s Tuesday, December 21. With our second podcast bet the edge, brought to you by online sports betting calm. I’m going to be hosting this show. And I’m going to be introducing my two co hosts. If you didn’t catch off first show last week on Friday. We’ve gotten some pretty good reviews. And we’re really excited about that. But let me get right down to my two co hosts here. We have Scott Matthews from SM sports picks. And Dre Fernandez, Dre writes for online sports bet.com. What’s up guys? What’s up? What I’m trying to recover from my New England Patriots debacle on Saturday night, just when I thought I was gonna look like a hero getting people to tell them to get plus three. They got to have a 64 yard touchdown breakaway run to lose by 10. I would look pretty good saying get that number to three, a three and a half.

But I was thinking when that happened, Scott?

Well, I’ve said it before. If this was a perfect business guys, we’d be on a desert island right now on a beach with a Victoria’s Secret model. So let’s let’s come back to earth here. And this is a business where you got to be very disciplined.

And the good good, good plays will come your way here. We had a good show last week. So what we’re going to be doing on this show today is we’re going to be reviewing what happened over the weekend. And we’re going to be breaking down. We got two games tomorrow on Tuesday.

That’s a rarity. Now do all this COVID stuff. A lot of stuff is shifting around right now. I mean, I just saw the NHL is basically postponing or canceling most of their games. I think the Canadian authorities aren’t going to let us teams fly into Canada play hockey. So we’re not really going to be talking about hockey here.

But but this is a situation that I think you really got to pay attention to right now. I mean, just going back to that Cleveland Vegas game may field isn’t playing now.

Now the line shifted back to Vegas that that lines been all over like Bitcoin. I mean, it’s just been absolutely crazy. We did speak about that last show. But we’re going to concentrate on the two football games for tomorrow. I just want to let everyone know if you want to follow this podcast, all you really need to do is subscribe to our channel online sports bet you’re going to be notified every time we come with a new podcast. In addition, we do put out daily videos and if you like what you see, we could need or we could use all the support right now from anyone out there. So give us a thumbs up give us a liking We greatly appreciate it.

You know that not interrupt your time it but you know that that line? It’s crazy. But it could be like a bed a bed is paradise with this line flipping 34567 points over the last several days may feel being in first they opened up three and a half, four and a half. Then it went to the other side going three three and a half. If you’re catching this game, right you you got a huge opportunity. What a major middle here. If this game falls close tonight, so yeah, like six seven points. This game has flipped around like you had mentioned. I’m just thinking from a betting standpoint if you jumped in early, before all this decision making was made. Cleveland was like a three and a half to four and a half point opening favorite. Then they went to a dog. Now they’re back to a Fae it’s jumped around like four or five, six different times over the last three or four days. So guys out there that smart took it, you know might have taken advantage of this and have basically a free opportunity from major middle on this on this game tonight.

Well the oddsmakers are definitely earning their pay right now with all this stuff that’s going on. It’s not easy right now and let’s let’s just hope this this does not spread up into the NBA, or you know, the remainder of the college bowls. You are dealing with kids now and colleges. So that’s a whole nother topic for another day. I don’t know how the universities are going to react to all this. So let’s just hope everything stays somewhat stable. But what we’re going to be doing here is we’re going to do a quick recap of what went down over the weekend after like I said, if this was a perfect business I wouldn’t be I wouldn’t be speaking to you guys right now.

No disrespect I may do the recap.

One is too big man on campus, so we’re gonna get to him in a second and then we’re gonna get to you also Scotty but no We’re gonna do it we’re going to do a quick recap.

Then we’re going to be breaking down the two games for tomorrow, what we’re going to be doing we’re going to be sticking to all format. We’re going to get a best bet from both you guys. We’re going to get a parlay and we’re going to have Dre kickin What a play a prop this guy’s been pretty hot on his player props, costs and went over nine and a half rushing yards the other day. So we’re going to in the end on the end of this podcast, we’re going to get Best Bets we’re going to throw out a parlay for tomorrow night’s games, and we’re going to throw out a play a prop. Let let’s start with the big man on campus man Trey you really? You really kicked some butt over the weekend. I mean colts minus the two and a half Dallas, minus six purse half saints minus 11 I mean, Brady, what was it he hasn’t been shut out and what is it 15 years

2006 Well,

hey, you know what it goes it says an old saying any any team could be beaten on any given day that was kind of an embarrassing thing for him at home last night.

Well they’ll forget though he was a major weapons major weapons in that game for that went out. Mike Evans out Godwin is out for the rest of the season he got so three huge weapons for Brady not to make any excuses to get shot out at home but he Yeah,

they were playing football but yeah, they don’t lose a lot of saints play

great without their coach right? Yep. Right. I said this on the first show. I believe any assistant coach could probably coach a team since they’re in meetings all week and all so I don’t know how much of a coach really makes a difference in a game like that but you got to get the saints credit basically holding the Patriots. Excuse me Tampa very impressive and I think a lot of the public really got hurt the books made a lot of money on that game that’s all I can tell you no doubt the sports books really clear cleaned up on that game everyone loaded up with with Brady on Sunday night but that’s gonna happen from time to time but yet as I told you guys also double digit favorites in the NFL a brutal it’s like one of the worst bets over so many years. A 1010 or more point favorite the NFL covering is a very low percentage. Arizona down the tubes yesterday. Obviously New Orleans down the tubes Dallas COVID I don’t know if there was an there was like two more that was the bills. The bills cover the bills covered on a late touchdown on a fourth into it.

They weren’t covering into the fourth quarter. Yeah, who’s hanging in there but they did get that they did get the cover by the glorious terrible bet is a double digit favorite in the NFL has been notorious for not being a high win win rate proposition but anyways.

Well, I mean, I just wanted to quickly recap I mean, it looks like Dre the only the only game The only prop that went down was that Joe Mixon but but you nailed like I said the saints plus 11 Dallas, minus six first half colts minus, minus two and a half and Carson Wentz over nine and a half rushing out so you’re gonna have some more props for us at the end of the show.

Dry Yeah, I got one more for you guys. I mean, this hot. Scott, were you getting scared there with the giant almost backdoor covering? Yeah, you saw that? We went down the field.

Yeah, we’re all the way down the field to go for four and out like our nine yard line and exact come up with any points. I was like I said, I made a prediction, I felt that Dallas would win by 16 to 24. So I was pretty good on that one. As far as my other ones obviously, I was a little off this weekend. But yeah, it was a little scary.

And the Giants were definitely trying to do something. But then when it came down to it, I don’t know. Seems like they just couldn’t put it together. But you know, this Dallas team is gonna watch this team right now. They really, they really could be the team that could catch real fire and make things interesting, you know, this football season because it’s so wide open right now guys look at everything that’s going on these teams like you know, from one week to the next.

It’s such parity right now in the NFL. I wouldn’t be surprised if any you know any of these teams in the playoffs could make some noise.

You know, only team I’ve got faith in right now is the Packers Yeah, well, definitely the Packers and they almost lost.

Yeah, they fought they almost found the way to blow and hardball again, amazingly again, goes for 2.2 and enter the game for the win and comes up short. That’s twice and like, I think the last three weeks yet twice in three weeks, they’ve lost their last. I believe they’ve lost their last three games by a combined five points, but you got to give him credit for the balls he has to do that. That is ballsy. And you know he’s going for the win, which is a good thing. But unfortunately even costing him games. Yeah, cost themselves some games.

Well, let’s let’s move on tomorrow night Tuesday. Interesting to Tuesday night games. One starts at five Eastern one one stock, I believe. I believe they both start at the same time actually. At 7pm Eastern 7pm. Eastern I’m going to stall what you Scott and if you want to follow Scott on Instagram. He’ll he puts out NBA daily. He puts out a lot of different sports he follows hockey follows MBA, you’ll get NHL you’ll get college football. It’s at SM sports pics.com. You could find them on Instagram that’s at SM sports pics on Instagram. Let’s start Scott with this ram Seattle game playing line open the four. It’s up to seven totals 45. What’s your take on this one?

Well, this is an interesting game because over the years these teams have played each other pretty, you know physical games, obviously with Seattle’s known defense, obviously, the explosive offense that the rams have turned into with Stafford behind the helm. Now they have Odell Beckham. They got they got the vacuum cleaner Cooper cup, who just seems to get catch balls like no one else in the league. It’s already got 113 receptions this guy’s on face for like 140 or 150 receptions this year. I mean, the guy’s unbelievable. He’s a small guy. And he just finds ways to get to the ball gets to him. He’s always open. Yeah, he just find ways to make things happen. And he moves the chains for them. But this is an interesting game because Russell Wilson, there was a lot of heat on him about three weeks ago, they didn’t know if he was throwing the towel in everyone’s saying he’s ready to move on. And then since then, all this news coming up just crazy how the media fumes things up. He’s played two great weeks in a row got to they got two wins in a row. They’re coming in now five and nine into this game against obviously one of the top teams in the NFC game like this, I gotta be honest with you, when you look at a game like this on paper. I mean, every advantage should go to the home team, obviously with the Rams playing well, battling for the number one spot in the NFC. Right now currently at nine and four playing at home. I just got this vibe. And again, these are not huge plays for me that I’m going all out on. I wouldn’t put these out on my private servers for my higher end clients I work with, but my opinion based on the numbers based on the things I look at, you know, Seattle is a good team in December they find ways to play well, in the month of December believe the last five games in December they form one against the spread, not the two huge, but I think Wilson coming together a little bit. I think he was a little out of it. When he came back off his injury took a couple of weeks to get him going. Now he seems to be going I think they’re going to battle with this team. I think this games are gonna be closer than people think. I think this game could be a field go game, based on what I’m seeing and the numbers on the game. I know a lot of people the public’s gonna jump on the Rams at home. That’s why the numbers dropped, you know, is dropped, driven up a little bit. But I’m thinking this game’s gonna be a real tight game. I think Seattle’s somehow finds a way to stay in it. I think Wilson makes things happen. He’ll scramble around, he’s going to move the ball. Obviously Stafford is going to do what he does best. He’s got great weapons to go to.

They’re going to you know, I see this game being close. So I would take the points guys in this game with Seattle to keep this game under a touchdown.

Would you buy the hook Scott it’s at seven right now. When would you advise though, in that, you know, I’ve noticed to go from seven to seven and a half. You know now with the with these teams going for two and a lot of extra points being missed and stuff like that. Then they got to come down and go for two to make up for I would say a game like this.

If I’m going to buy it, I’m going to go to plus eight. I’m going to jump on Seattle it I’d buy the Extra Point Lay that buck 30 Buck 40 Whatever it is. I know you know it’s hard to lay that juice too often. But on a key game like this. It’s on that you know it’s a it’s a focus game. Obviously all the eyes and ears are on the game. I would if I’m going to do it. I’m going to go to Seattle plus eight I think at plus eight you sit with a pretty good opportunity to catch should take it.

Alright, duly noted dry What’s your take on this one?

I kind of agree with Scott here there’s going to be a close game, but I there’s a player like better and that’s the over in this game. It’s sitting at about 45 and a half 46 I’ve seen it move, but on the random the fourth highest scoring offense in this league there they haven’t like 28.2 points per game, I think and McVeigh is an offensive genius. And I just think that the public’s gonna see this see the Rams they know the Rams defense headlined by Aaron Donald arm is is amazing, and they’re gonna bet the under here but I think I think this is just a bit too low. Um, I think I know that the COVID situation like Tyler lock is out for the Seahawks. But I could see this game finishing like 3127 or something like that. And they saw DK Metcalf, they still have now this guy, Rashad Penny was just come out of nowhere playing amazing. I think that this game goes over I see a finishing something like 3127 or something like that. It’s just division rivals. The Seahawks are finally finding their stride. They’ve scored 30 and 33. In the last two games, Russell Russell Wilson is in my opinion, Russell Wilson is playing to show his future team, how well he can still throw the football because I know he wants to be traded after this season. Just kind of like himself. He’s proving himself. So I’m taking over here.

Yeah, that’s a good point. That’s a good point. Because, you know, Wilson obviously wants to still prove to everyone out there his talents in the league is one of the top quarterbacks and I think he’s gonna try to showcase his talents, especially on a game that all that a lot, you know, everyone’s gonna be watching.

So this is a marquee type of game out there that, you know, he can really showcase himself. And as I said, since he came back from being out of the lineup for those three or four weeks, he started slow, but the last few games he has shown who you know, back to his kind of his level of play. So I wouldn’t be surprised the momentum brought them in. And I agree with you on the point that I think that they both have to score points. It’s the type of game that I think both teams will score points. But I don’t know about the total. I like Seattle’s society.

I just think there’s too many offensive weapons for both teams. You got Cooper copy, Odell Beckham you got DK Metcalf I just think defenses are going to have some trouble, especially with you mentioned how well the Seahawks play in December. Yes, they are teaming I’ve seen I’ve seen some money even though the line is shot up on that game It seems that the majority action on one of the feeds that I look at is what the points with Seattle plus the seven at this point so it should be an interesting game no doubt we got a second game and this is a big rival always Philadelphia, Washington. The line really hasn’t moved much on this game. It’s it’s it’s holding at six and a half. Phillies favorite total 42. What what’s your what’s your take on this one? Right?

Well, this is I love this play. I’m I’m going with I would jump on Washington right now and get it I would buy it up to plus seven. But I’m cow Island or Taylor. Hi, Nikki. One of them may be ruled in I’m seeing it’s like a 5050 chance that one of them gets rolled in to play tomorrow. But if or today if you guys are seeing this, but I’m Taylor Hi, Nikki is playing well. And even if he does not play, they’re hot.

They’re hot team even if he doesn’t play this. This is a division rivalry. These teams play each other so close. I have a crazy stat for you guys. Over the last four meetings. The Eagles echo Washington football team, their total score, the Washington football team leads 101 to 100. These teams play each other super close. Um, I love the plus seven here and I think it’ll drop drastically if if one of them gets rolled in. And even if they don’t, I still think they played them super close from taking the plus seven here. And I jumped on it right now before it moves. Because I saw this. I saw this line open I like eight and public hammered the at least where I’m seeing and it still dropped to six and a half. So I’d get the seven and I get it now.

All right, Scott, what’s your take on this one? Washington Philly. What do you think?

I’ll tell you man, this is this. This is a tough game. This is way past me even I mean, I’ve looked at this game inside outside every way you could go. I mean, I just it’s like I just got my hands up. I’m throwing my hands up I just can’t really make a call on this game because there’s so many players in it, you know going to that are affected in this on both teams here on offense and defense. It’s just it’s just a really tough game. I gotta be honest with you. I think the game between what I’m looking at, I think it’s going to be a defensive type of game. I think there’ll be mistakes in the game that’s going to cause turnovers which could take points off the board, as far as you know, these teams staying within between the 30 and the 30. Yeah, they’re going to score points. But I think the number right now is about 43. If I was going to lean somewhere on a game like this, due to the fact that, you know, all these players that are banged up with injuries and COVID, and not in the game, I would think this game is gonna stay as a is a defensive type of game. And I would lean towards the under 43. Again, these are just small plays.

Guys, I don’t want you to, you know, we’re on here, yes, this is what we do. And we love what we do. And we put a lot of time into what we do. But there’s a lot of factors when there’s so many players in and out of the lineups right now. And these numbers jump all over the place. And you really got to be careful, I’m looking for more quality. I’d rather stay away from games than just playing to play.

But I’m giving you my opinion, based on what I look at and what I see. And the number of 43 in my eyes based on what I’m putting together shows a defensive game, and I think it will be a defensive game. And mistakes will keep that game under the number.

Very interesting. All right, so we got some different opinions here. Which what what we want on this show, actually, you could find more information on our website, online sports bet calm. And once again, you could find Scott’s daily selections on Instagram at SM sports pics, so check him out there. Alright, let’s get our best bets out of the way. We’re going to also throw a poly out there and then Dre is going to throw is one of his magical player props. Let’s saw what you Scott. Out of the four different totals and straight that’s on these two games. What would be a best bet?

Can I jump off? Can I jump off the NFL and give you my best bet actually, for tomorrow? It’s in college football. Is that all right? I mean, I’m sure you guys would want to. You certainly may, sir. Okay, there’s a team I’ve been following way before everyone started jumping on the bandwagon I was following this University of Texas San Antonio team. Now I was following them when they were like three and oh, and four. And they went you know, they had an unbelievable season ended, I believe 11 and one for the year. They’re playing tomorrow against San Diego State. They’re a dog in this game. San Diego State to good team. But this this University of Texas San Antonio, this team can really score. This team has weapons, and they’re very overlooked not they made it into the top 25. This year, I believe they ended up like towards the number 25 and number 23 At the end of the year in the pullings. But I like them as a dog in this game. And if you could get them at three and a half to four. I think the current line right now is we’re doing the show is about plus three. I like this game two plus three and a half of four. That is actually my best bet for Tuesday is this college football game because as I said with all these issues going on in the NFL, it just it’s for me to make a big time play tomorrow, if I’m going to put out a best bet. This is my best bet on this college football game. But Tuesday.

Well, it’s noted we’re gonna revisit this on the next show on Thursday. Dre What do you think you could you could shift to another sport if you’d like or the NFL games? What’s your best bet for today? I’m

I’m high naff I gotta stick with NFL. I gotta go with the with the plus seven I mentioned earlier. I mean, I just think everything is pointing towards it. Or used to reverse line movement. The the 5050 of the quarterbacks maybe playing? Maybe not. I think I think one of them will get ruled in and I think they’ll play and I think this game is no more each each way other than like a few it won’t be decided by more than a few books using. So um, I love this play. Um, I think Washington keeps it close if not wins the game outright. I think you could sprinkle the money line if you’d like. Um, and yeah, that’s that’s my best bet of the day.

All right, noted. Let’s let’s talk about a Paul A, you got a lot of parlayed betters out there. If you had to put together two sides, Scott for Tuesday, it could be your college game hooked with an NFL game or even an NBA game. What would you do?

Well, I’m gonna if I was to put a little parlay together and again, I’m not a huge fan of the parlays like a lot of guys are out there. I believe in the straight get to the point. Look for the best bet put your money into that type of game and not you know putting a parlay together because if you win one or you lose one, it’s it’s a negative day, but just a small parlay. I would go with Seattle, get that number. I don’t Well, you can’t really buy a number on a par like, I would take Seattle plus the points and I’d put it together with that. college football game The UTSA game. I said that bowl game tomorrow night, plus the three, three and a half points. That number you got to watch it obviously, depending on the time, but I would get at least three, three and a half if you can lock it in right now. And I would parlay that with Seattle, small parlay guys minimum minimal parley. Like I said, these are not preferred premier games from that I’m putting out to my players on my private service these these are games I’m putting out trying to show you a little side of us. Obviously a little expertise that we can you know, on these games that we’re looking at for Tuesday, but again, Seattle Paulie to UT ut SA and college football all right, how about you dry? What do you got for a pie?

I mean, I’m right with Scott there straight bets are you know how you profit but parlays aren’t the I know I won’t like subpar lays I was looking maybe see a teaser but um I didn’t like any teasers I only liked them in Monday night’s game with the Vikings but on I’m gonna go with parlay I’m gonna take the plus seven that I mentioned earlier and I’m going to go and go Scott said earlier the under in that game. I think that games gonna be a slugfest just like every division matchup is but um, I mentioned it last week or on Monday, I mentioned that the the the system hitting right now excuse me is a 65% his division unders divisional game honors after week 10 So I mean, I’m just gonna stick with that. If it’s working. Why not? Why stop it so the plus seven and on their night game, gold fight the trend stick with the trend well said. Well try let’s do this. We’re gonna wrap things up soon. You were pretty hot. Well, you play a props last week, man. What do you think for tomorrow? What’s your best play a prop?

Alright, so um, title lock is out. As everyone knows him. He’s on my fantasy team. So I wouldn’t know. That’s hurting me. But um, I think take the DK Metcalf over in yards. I know he’s going to be guarded by Ramsey for most of the game. But I’m Russell Wilson. I have mentioned that I like the over in this game. So I think it’s going to be a lot of throwing football I think the random store down the Aaron Donald load stuff that running game. But um, I really liked the DK Metcalf over on yards here. He’s received eight targets in Florida’s last five games. So um, wasn’t his targeting him. He’s just he just hasn’t shown the production he did last year.

He’s gotten a little better over the last two games. I think it was 43 and 60 yards over the last few games. But I would lock it out. I think Wilson’s just gonna go right to decay, every play. So I think he’s gonna be the first read every place I’m gonna take the over on his yard.

I’ve been getting some feedback because we did get a pretty good reception on off first show. And what I am hearing is a lot of people can’t that these props. So that’s something that you definitely want to you know, if I could just speak from a little experience, a lot of local won’t have props. So you definitely want to look for a liable book online that will carry all these props. I am getting some comments saying Tommy, I saw those props it but I just can’t get them. So keep that in mind.

You need a good platform if you want to start doing prop attic.

And, and I noticed the prop players, the younger generation type of newer players, the old school players that I’ve been used to dealing with for so long, never even talked about props never had any interest in Prop place. And I never really got involved with Prop plays. And all these years I’ve been doing this for over 30 I don’t want to get into it for over 30 plus years and still get a little here. Let’s think after all the pulling in here out like Tom Brady maybe pull out last night a little bit of it. But the bottom line is seems like it’s a millennium type of bet. And yet, like you said a lot of places, and I don’t think you can move serious money on him anyways, you know, if they’re gonna do it, they’re gonna let you play like a minimal amount. So for more serious type players, I don’t think they’re really going to get so involved. You know, I think they’re probably going to be very limited on these properties. Hey, I was curious, Dre. Since you’re into the prop place. Is there a rushing total for Russell Wilson tomorrow night? Rush?

I don’t think one’s come out yet. I think they’re waiting all the COVID situations. But um, let me find his previous totals.

Yeah, because I would think that if they’re going to be alive in this game, he’s going to have to, you know, do a little mix in and up throne and run in that ball a little bit in that game. I was just curious. The number that might be like, last few games. It’s ranged anywhere from 12 and a half to 16 and a half. Okay.

I’m sure there’ll be a number on That game I, you know, I went to a conference last week, or it’s actually two weeks ago in New Jersey, and fantasy props are going to be a major, major factor in this industry going forward. That’s what’s really going to drive a lot of the Byam live betting is also going to be tremendous.

We could talk about that in another show for another day. But props are definitely going to be a major factor. As more and more people shift from fantasy to real money betting. They didn’t want to hone on prop bets because it’s kind of tied in