NFL Playoff Betting — Bucs-Rams: QB Duel, or Defensive Battle?

The Los Angeles Rams took care of business in a rather routine manner last time they faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since that day, you could make the argument that, with regard to personnel, they have gotten better, while the Bucs have regressed. If the Rams can beat the Bucs for a second time this season, they can advance to the NFC title game, where they would encounter the San Francisco 49ers, who seem to have their number.

The Divisional round of the NFC playoffs gets underway at 3 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. And our friends at OnlineSportsBet have established the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers as favorites:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-107)

Los Angeles Rams +3 (-113)

Over 48 Points -112

Under 48 Points -108

The Rams won 34-24 over Tampa Bay on September 26. It was a big outing for Matthew Stafford, who threw for 343 yards and four TD’s. Cooper Kupp had 96 of those yards.

The Bucs, a team that is inclined to go to the air as it is, did so almost exclusively. Tom Brady attempted 55 passes and actually led his team with 14 rushing yards. Neither team did a lot of work on the ground, truth be told; in fact, they totaled 111 rushing yards. The Rams did a smart thing by trading Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford, because it gave the offense an opportunity to stretch things out. Stafford threw for 4886 yards and 48 touchdowns. But there was also the tendency to make critical mistakes. Stafford not only threw 17 interceptions, four of them wound up being taken back all the way to the end zone.

What they present the Tampa Bay defense is a receiver corps that is troublesome. Kupp caught 145 passes for 1947 yards. Odell Beckham has been integrated more and more into the offense; for example, last Monday night, in a 34-11 destruction of Arizona, he caught a TD pass and completed a 40-yard throw. Single-cover him at your own risk.

The Bucs are moving forward without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, and that might mean more reliance on Rob Gronkowski, who has caught fifteen touchdown passes in their 21 playoff games together. Tampa Bay has some hurting offensive linemen; right tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen hurt their ankles last week, and although neither will be 100%, they will both play if at all possible.

That’s meaningful, because Tampa Bay throws the ball more frequently than any other team in the NFL on a percentage basis (65.7%). Brady was sacked only 22 times in the regular season. But he was sacked four times last week in the 31-15 win over Philadelphia.

Running back Leonard Fournette is slated to come back from injury, and they’re going to have to call on him to get some balance. Fournette was such an outstanding performer in the last postseason, and he is very good at catching passes out of the backfield (69 receptions).

Will this make the Bucs run more? And will that swallow up some clock? Jalen Ramsey has the capacity to shut down at least one Tampa Bay wide receiver, and this is not a deep WR corps. The Buccaneers have allowed just 71 points over their last five games. The Rams won’t have the services of left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who will sit with ankle and knee injuries.

What we’re driving at is that this game looks very much like one that could go “under” the total.

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