Pro Football Picks — New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (11/7)

If you are looking for a dark horse in the AFC playoff race, you may find one in the Boston area, where the New England Patriots have put together a string where they’ve won three games in four tries, and with a little luck, they could have had a five-game winning streak, as they lost heart-breaking decisions to the Tampa Bay Bucs and Dallas Cowboys.

So they are going into Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers with a little bit of confidence. Yes, travel has been a little rough, as they went out to the West Coast last week and come back to a road game on the East Coast, but the Pats are going back to fundamentals, and their rookie quarterback is playing with more and more confidence.

BetAnySports customers may not know what to make of the Carolina Panthers, who won their first three games of the season with Christian McCaffrey in the backfield but lost four in a row without him. Last week they put together a sterling defensive effort to beat the Atlanta Falcons, and they are hopeful they can turn to McCaffrey this week.

So that is the scene as these teams get together at 1 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

In the pro football betting odds that have been made available to us from the people at BetAnySports, the Patriots are the road favorites:

New England Patriots – 3.5 (-105

Carolina Panthers + 3.5 (-115)

Over 41.5 points – 110

Under 41.5 points – 110

Yes, the Panthers are excited about the possibility of having McCaffrey, who was activated off injured reserve. But let’s not make-believe he’s a miracle man. McCaffrey has averaged less than four yards per carrying and about ten yards on his 16 receptions. In those first three games of the season, Carolina defeated the Jets and the Texans, two teams who were virtually moribund on offense, and the New Orleans Saints, who were at the time not really generating a lot of yards themselves.

Speaking of not generally generating a lot of yards, that’s the position Carolina put the Atlanta Falcons in last week, as Matt Ryan was held to 146 yards on his 27 attempts and was intercepted twice. There was no explosive offensive display on the part of the Panthers, who got just 129 yards out of Sam Darnold. But they controlled the ball (35 minutes in possession) and managed a 19 – 13 victory.

But don’t make any mistake of the fact that this is a new challenge coming. The Patriots had a great run-pass balance last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, going out to Sofi Stadium and winning a 27 – 24 decision on the road. They had 141 yards on the ground, and over the last three games, they have run the ball 49% of the time. On an overall basis, Mac Jones has been pretty solid, with a 68% completion rate, although New England probably needs to improve its efforts in the red zone. Unquestionably, the Panthers have to be able to stop the run, and they have shown some softness from time to time in that regard, allowing 4.4 yards per carrying.

The real concern has to be Sam Darnold, who started the season like someone who was ready to revive his career, but things have gotten much more difficult as the schedule has been tougher. Darnold has absolutely flummoxed upon his return to the Meadowlands two weeks ago (a 25-3 loss to the Giants), and as we mentioned, he had 129 yards last week. Interestingly, he has scored five touchdowns on the ground, but his eight interceptions are nothing for this team to laugh about.

And you’ve got to remember something else; over on the other sideline, Bill Belichick is the guy who once made Darnold “see ghosts” when Darnold was quarterbacking the Jets. In his NFL career, Darnold has one touchdown pass and six interceptions against offenses that Belichick has designed.

We do indeed believe that is something Carolina has to overcome in this game. And for that reason, we are going to lean toward the Patriots, even with the rookie quarterback laying more than a field goal on the road.

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