NFL Odds & Preview — AFC Wild Card: On Short Notice, Raiders Try to Tame Bengals

OnlineSportsBet patrons may recall that in Zac Taylor’s first season as coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, there were reports of his mistreatment of players and the possibility of revolt. But two years later, this team is in the postseason under the power of an explosive offense led by former Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow.

These guys can be hard to stop, because they’re balanced, and they are a challenge for the Las Vegas Raiders, who are off a draining effort against the L.A.Chargers, which brought them a playoff spot.

These two match up in the first round of the AFC playoffs, which begins at 4:30 PM ET at Paul Brown Stadium. While the Raiders (10-7 SU. 8-9 ATS) snuck in with a wild card spot, the Bengals (10-7 SU & ATS) won the AFC North title, which was thought to be an unlikely result at the outset of the season, what with the presence of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland.

What has happened with Derek Carr is that he has kind of lacked a major downfield threat in the absence of Henry Ruggs, who was involved in that horrible car accident where he killed another driver while drunk. But Carr is managing a way of working around it, leading the Raiders to four consecutive victories to close out the season. This has unquestionably been a season of ups and downs.

Jon Gruden’s resignation and the circumstances surrounding it was a major distraction, but you have to give credit to interim coach Rich Bisaccia (who was the special teams coach) for keeping things together. Whether he is able to keep his job beyond this season – or whether GM Mike Mayock is retained – may depend on what happens on Saturday.

Looking at the NFL odds on this playoff matchup, as they are posted by the people at OnlineSportsBet, the Bengals are favored at home:

Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

Las Vegas Raiders +5.5

Over 48.5 Points -107

Under 48.5 Points -113

Burrow is emerging as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and in fact had the highest pure passing grade as determined by the analytics site Pro Football Focus. He is not necessarily thwarted by a defensive scheme like the Raiders’ Cover 3, but when these teams met in Week 11, the Bengals were held to 288 net yards, even in a 32-13 victory. This was a low-scoring game until the final minutes, and Cincinnati made it look worse with a 19-point fourth quarter. Burrow threw for 148 yards.

The biggest receiving threat in this game is rookie Ja’Marr Chase (1455 yards), who the Bengals drafted to rejoin Burrow, his teammate at LSU. And the biggest threat on the ground is Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon (1205 rushing yards). In addition to this, Cincinnati has performed much better on defense this year than last, ranking fifth in the NFL in yards allowed per drive.

The Raiders need to do a number of things right. They have to get off to a decent start, since they are the team that is more likely to come out flat (maybe). It is imperative that tight end Darren Waller has a productive day, as Carr is going to seek him out in short range. The same can be said for Hunter Renfrow (103 catches), who has been an awesome slot receiver.

Don’t be surprised if the Las Vegas defense is the most significant unit on the field. They have progressed a great deal under coordinator Gus Bradley, and have held theit last six foes to 294 ypg. Pressure on Burrow is going to be a key, because he had the lowest “bad throw” percentage in the NFL this season.

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