NFL Odds — Betting the Super Bowl Vegas Spread

By Charles Jay

 

The Super Bowl Vegas spread is something of a misnomer, as much of the action – in fact, a vast majority of it – has gone online (like at BetOnline) or is in the hands of private bookmakers – but the public has come to accept that the line on a game originates in Nevada.

 

Regardless of where the tide has shifted, there is some historical importance to the Super Bowl Vegas spread if you are going to be betting on the Big Game this Sunday. Maybe it adds some keen insight to this year’s game, maybe it doesn’t. Nonetheless, it doesn’t hurt to examine some of it.

 

In the first four years where the NFL was playing the AFL, the Super Bowl Vegas spread had the NFL as a double-digi favorite. This was still the case, even the year after the New York Jets upset the then-Baltimore Colts behind Joe Namath. Of course, as we know by now, the Kansas City Chiefs overcame a 12.5-point Super Bowl Vegas spread to beat the Minnesota Vikings.

 

Since the merger between the two leagues was completely executed, and the common draft began to have its full effect, there has been a double-digit spread ten times in the last 51 years. That doesn’t mean there couldn’t be some big upsets, like in Super Bowl XLII, when the Giants were 12-point underdogs to the Patriots at kickoff and won the game in the final minutes.

 

When you talk about the Super Bowl Vegas spread, it has become diluted a bit, as mentioned, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Obviously this is going to be the busiest weekend of the year for the Nevada sportsbooks, with an attractive matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals.  

 

This is the way the numbers looked, at last glance (subject to change, of course):

 

Super Bowl Odds

SUPER BOWL LVI

Cincinnati Bengals (13-7 SU & ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS)

Live at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA

Sunday, February 13 — 6:30 PM ET

TV:  NBC

 

Super Bowl Odds at BetOnline

 

Los Angeles Rams -4

Cincinnati Bengals +4

 

Over 48.5 Points -110

Under 48.5 Points -110

 

Here are a few facts about Super Bowl pointspreads (and totals) that you might be interested in knowing:

 

* Out of the 55 Super Bowls, there are 54 that have been assigned a total (over-under). Of those, we’ve seen 27 overs and 27 unders.

 

* The NFC has covered 28 Super Bowls, with 25 covers by the AFC. There have been two pushes (ties).

 

* Twelve of the first 14 Super Bowls with a total (2 through 15) have had a total under 40. But only twice in the last 35 Super Bowls has the over-under been less than 40.

 

* On 23 occasions, the two teams have combined for more than the 48.5 points that are posted here. But that never happened until Super Bowl XIII, when Pittsburgh beat Dallas 35-31.

 

* Only six times has there been a situation where one team had the straight-up win, with the other team covering the spread.

 

* The underdog has covered the Super Bowl Vegas spread in 14 of the last 20 games.

 

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