NFC Wildcard Playoff Odds — Watt Will Play, But is That Enough For Cards?

Truth be told, the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams both looked like underachieving teens in the second half of the season. And when both of them have the opportunity to lock down the NFC West, they lost. The San Francisco 49ers, the third-place team in the division, has already won their game and moved on. Now the Cardinals and Rams will do battle in a rare Monday night playoff game that BetAnySports customers can see at 8:15 p.m. Eastern time on ESPN, coming from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.

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The Rams were 12-5 straight up and 8-9 ATS this season. The big difference in their offense was bringing Matthew Stanford on board. He threw for 4886 yards and 41 touchdown passes, but he also threw 17 interceptions, four of which were returned for touchdowns. To give you a little perspective, his predecessor, Jared Goff, threw four pick-sixes in five years.

Since Arizona gives up 4.6 yards per carry, the Rams could do themselves a big favor by establishing the run game. They have a two-headed approach, with Sony Michel (845 yards) and Darrell Henderson (688 yards) carrying the mail. And then maybe Stafford can work some play action to a very impressive group of receivers.

Cooper Kupp had a monster season, with 145 receptions, good for 1947 yards and 16 touchdowns. He should absolutely be in the conversation for the league’s Most Valuable Player. Robert Woods went down with an injury early in the campaign, and the Rams were fortunate enough to make a deal for Odell Beckham, who scored five touchdowns for them and looms as a big-play threat on the other side. Don’t forget about Van Jefferson, though, as he led the team with 16 yards per catch. And tight end Tyler Higbee, with 61 receptions, is solid.

The Rams averaged six yards per play this season, which was fourth-best in the NFL.

Looking at the NFC wildcard playoff odds on this game, as they are posted at BetAnySports, the Rams are the favorites at home:

Los Angeles Rams – 3 (-120)

Arizona Cardinals +3 (+100)

Over 50 points – 110

Under 50 points – 110

It is on the defensive side of the ball where the Rams may find themselves vulnerable. Yes, they have the ability to bring a heck of a pass rush when you look at the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd, but if Arizona’s Kyler Murray can get free from that he’s got a banged-up secondary to look at. The Rams are down two safeties, as Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp are out of action.

And if you look at their numbers, they have definitely lost some ground after the departure of last year’s defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley, who took the head coaching job with the Chargers. The Rams are 17th in the NFL in yards allowed per drive, but they are eighth in points allowed per Drive, suggesting that they do tighten up somewhere down in their own territory.

So how much can the Cardinals capitalize? Remember that Murray does not have DeAndre Hopkins to throw to. He has played in only ten games, and after the Cards lost to the Rams in Week 14, he had knee surgery that has removed him from action. There had been some hope that he could be involved, but that has been struck down. So it’s a matter of Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury figuring out how they’re going to distribute things among some capable receivers who are just not as capable as Hopkins.

But Christian Kirk had 982 yards, AJ Green averaged 15.7 yards per catch and Zach Ertz, an oddity in a Kingsbury offense in that he is a tight end, caught 56 passes. It will be very important for Arizona to be able to do something on the ground, and James Conner and Chase Edmonds are listed as questionable. We can’t imagine they won’t play. Conner has 18 touchdowns on the season, while Edmonds has caught 43 passes. We should note that over the last nine games of the season Arizona averaged eight points less than they did in the first eight games.

This is a team that has been missing JJ Watt from the defensive line, but after practicing this past week, it looks like he’s got the green light to come back after multiple injuries that took him out after seven games. We should note that Arizona won all those seven games in which he played.

If Stafford can stay mistake-free, the Rams would have an excellent shot at moving on. Murray’s ability to move around outside the pocket and to throw deep will be a key, but remember that Donald had 15 pressures and three sacks in the last meeting. Keep in mind that Arizona is 8-1, both straight up and against the number, in road games. But that can’t be the one and only criterion that guides you.

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