New Orleans Saints 2022-2023 Season Preview | OSB
New Orleans Saints 2022-2023 Season Preview
Can Jameis Winston return to his 2021 form? Can the Saints make the playoffs in their first year without Sean Payton?
The New Orleans Saints entered 2021 without quarterback Drew Brees for the first time since 2005. The Saints finished 9-8, but missed out on the playoffs due to the Philadelphia Eagles having the head-to-head tiebreaker. Following the season, head coach Sean Payton, one of the longest tenured head coaches in the NFL, announced his retirement.
Entering 2022, the Saints will be without Payton for the first time since 2005. His replacement Dennis Allen will look to show that he is up for the task in his second chance at being a head coach. The Saints will be counting on quarterback Jameis Winston returning to the form he was at before tearing his ACL in Week 8. The Saints were 5-2 in Winston’s seven starts, but just 4-6 the rest of the way.
Can Jameis Winston bounce back from his injury?
Before tearing his ACL, Jameis Winston was finally showing why he was the first overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft. Winston had long struggled with accuracy, throwing 30 interceptions in 2019, which is tied for the seventh-most all-time and the most in over 30 seasons. In the seven games Winston played in 2021, he threw just three interceptions compared to 14 touchdowns.
The weapons around Winston will be improved in 2022, as the Saints will get two-time All-Pro Michael Thomas back from injury. They also used one of their first-round draft picks to add wide receiver Chris Olave, while adding Jarvis Landry in free agency. If the ACL tear doesn’t have lingering effects on Winston, he could be looking at an even better season than the one he was having in 2021.
The Saints will need Winston healthy in 2022. Their offense finished 19th in total points and 28th in total yards. In the seven games with Winston, the Saints averaged over 25 points per game. This pace would have given them the 13th-best scoring offense. In the ten games without Winston, however, the Saints offense averaged under 19 points per game, which would have given them the 8th-worst scoring offense.
Can the Saints bounce back and make the postseason?
The difference with Winston around was night and day, both in terms of offensive production and total record. The Saints defense has been one of the best in the league, finishing in the top-five in points allowed in both 2020 and 2021.
The Saints did lose left tackle Terron Armstead in free agency, but they used their second first-round pick to draft his replacement, Trevor Penning. It is unclear, however, if Penning will start right away. The Saints also lost safety Marcus Williams, but were able to replace him by signing four-time All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu and safety Marcus Maye.
The Saints are currently +310 to win the NFC South, trailing only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their odds of making the postseason sit at +125, while the over/under on their win total is 8.5 wins. Their +2000 odds of winning the NFC is tied with the Arizona Cardinals for eighth-best in the conference. Those odds trail the Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings.
As far as winning the Super Bowl, the Saints odds are currently +4000, tied with the Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, and Miami Dolphins for 16th-best in the NFL. Those odds trail the Buffalo Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, 49ers, Denver Broncos, Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, and Vikings.
The Saints may not quite be Super Bowl contenders, but 8.5 wins seems like an unreasonably low total, provided Winston is healthy. There may be a dropoff due to losing Payton, but a full season of Winston and a highly improved wide receiving corps should help ease the pain of that loss.
Winston currently has +550 odds to win Comeback Player of the Year, while Michael Thomas has +800 odds to take home the award. If those two are able to bounce back to the level they were at when last healthy, expect the Saints to return to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus.
