Miami Dolphins 2022-2023 Season Preview

Can Tua Tagovailoa take the next step? Will the Dolphins be able to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016?

The Miami Dolphins finished the 2021 NFL season with a 9-8 record, which placed them third in the AFC East and just outside of the postseason.  It marked the fifth straight season that the Dolphins missed the postseason, and the third under former head coach Brian Flores.  Despite finishing above expectations in each of his three years in Miami, Flores was fired and replaced by first-time head coach Mike McDaniel.

Can Tua Tagovailoa take a step towards stardom?

 

Coming out of Alabama in 2020, Tua Tagovailoa was viewed as a sure-thing can’t-miss prospect, but the early results have not been there.  The move from Flores to McDaniel was a shift from a defensive minded head coach to an offensive minded head coach.  The strategy to focus on offense was a constant theme throughout the Dolphins offseason, as they look to get the most out of Tagovailoa in his third season.  Considering where the two other top-ten quarterbacks of his class, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert currently stand, it is no surprise that the Dolphins are looking to get more out of Tagovailoa, especially when considering that he was selected before Herbert.

 

The Dolphins allocated plenty of assets towards upgrading the weapons and protection around Tagovailoa.  Their biggest move of the offseason, by far, was to acquire wide receiver Tyreek Hill in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs.  To acquire Hill, the Dolphins sent out a 2022 first-round pick, second-round pick, and two fourth-round picks, as well as a 2023 sixth-round pick, while also making Hill the highest paid wide receiver in the league.  While that is a lot of assets to invest in one player, Hill made four All-Pros and six Pro Bowls in six seasons in Kansas City so placing him opposite of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle could help Tagovailoa tremendously.

 

The Dolphins also used free agency as a way to invest in their offense.  They gave left tackle Terron Armstead a large contract to protect Tagovailoa.  Armstead, an All-Pro in 2018 and three time Pro Bowler, was not the only lineman the Dolphins signed.  They also signed offensive guard Connor Williams.  It is clear why the Dolphins focused on their offensive line as they struggled to keep Tagovailoa upright in 2021, and he was forced to miss time after an injury on a quarterback hit.

 

Outside of the offensive line, the Dolphins also pursued more weapons for Tagovailoa in free agency.  They added wide receiver Cedrick Wilson and running back Chase Edmonds.  Both players have shown that they have the tools to be successful, but have been hindered by not having a consistent role with their previous organizations.

 

These additions all throughout the offense make Tagovailoa a prime breakout candidate.  If he is unable to do so, it could mean that he simply isn’t a starting caliber quarterback.  The Dolphins did sign quarterback Teddy Bridgewater as insurance in case this does end up being the case.  The decision to spend the offseason heavily focused on offense makes a lot of sense with a strong quarterback class coming up and not many teams that figure to be in the market for a quarterback.  It could be a make or break year for Tagovailoa.

Will the Dolphins make the postseason for the first time since 2016?

The Dolphins are currently tied with the Detroit Lions and New York Giants for the third-longest active playoff drought, having missed the postseason in five straight seasons.  This trails only the New York Jets and Denver Broncos.

 

After narrowly missing the postseason in 2020 and 2021, by one game and half a game, respectively, the Dolphins will look to finally end their postseason drought in 2022.  While the team has improved, so have a lot of the AFC, making the Dolphins route to the postseason tougher.  The Dolphins have what looks to be a tough schedule on paper, and the over/under on their win total is 9 wins, which matches the amount they finished with in 2021.  They are currently being given +140 odds to make the postseason.

 

Their odds of winning the AFC East are +450, which is currently good for second in the division.  Unfortunately for Dolphins fans, the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills are in their division and their only path to the postseason appears to be the Wild Card.  The Dolphins’ +2000 odds of winning the AFC are currently tied with the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans for ninth in the conference.  Their odds of winning the Super Bowl, +4000, are tied with the Raiders, Titans, New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings for sixteenth in the NFL.

 

It is no surprise that the Dolphins are being given such long odds to make a postseason run.  They will be playing in an AFC where 13 of the 16 teams are expected to contend for a postseason spot.  With uncertainty about Tagovailoa at the sport’s most important position, the Dolphins are one of few teams with such a wide range of possibilities, as much of their success depends on how much he can improve.  If Tagovailoa breaks out, it is not unreasonable to envision the Dolphins in the postseason.  If he shows that he is the same quarterback he has been with an increased arsenal in weapons and increased protection, it is easy to see the team moving on, whether that be during the season or afterwards.