Los Angeles Chargers 2022-2023 Season Preview

Will big moves on defense help the Chargers make the postseason?  Are they true Super Bowl contenders?

The Los Angeles Chargers had a disappointing 2021 season.  Despite starting 4-1 and looking like a lock to make the postseason, the Chargers floundered down the stretch.  A Week 16 loss to the Houston Texans, one of the worst teams in the NFL, dimmed their postseason hopes, while a Week 18 loss to the rival Las Vegas Raiders put those hopes away for good.

 

Quarterback Justin Herbert took a step towards becoming a superstar, finishing second in the league in passing yards, and third in touchdowns and QBR.  He also finished second in comeback wins and tied for third in game-winning drives, while leading the Chargers to a top-five scoring offense.

The Chargers offense was held back by a defense that tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the third-most points allowed.  The New York Jets and Detroit Lions were the only teams that allowed more.  For a Chargers team with playoff expectations, it was unacceptable to have a defense that finished in the same realm as teams that have been consistently at the bottom of the standings.  It was no surprise to see the Chargers allocate a lot of assets towards fixing their defense.

Will big defensive changes help the Chargers?

Although it has rarely been a good way to determine success, the Chargers were viewed as one of this offseason’s big winners.  This was, in large part, due to the defensive help that they brought in.  The Chargers spent big in free agency to bring in cornerback Justin Jackson, who has been a turnover machine.  They also signed defensive tackles Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson.  The Chargers also made a splash on the trade market, acquiring four-time All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack from the Chicago Bears for a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 sixth-round pick.

 

The Chargers made a significant attempt to make sure that Herbert and the top-five offense aren’t once again held back by a bottom-five defense.  While their plan was great in theory, it remains to be seen how the pieces will gel.  Afterall, pass rusher Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James, who is holding out for a new contract, have both struggled with injuries in the past, while Mack is coming off a season-ending injury.

 

Either way, the Chargers front office is right to attempt to swing big.  Having a superstar quarterback on a rookie contract gives you the best chance to win.  It is wise to attempt to do so before Herbert, inevitably, signs a massive contract and the Chargers are forced to relinquish key pieces as the Kansas City Chiefs had to do this offseason.

Are the Chargers true Super Bowl contenders?

The Chargers have been a popular preseason pick to make a Super Bowl run.  Their +1400 odds of winning their first Super Bowl in franchise history reflect that preseason optimism.  Those odds are currently sixth in the entire NFL, trailing only the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Chiefs, and Los Angeles Rams.  That list includes the past three Super Bowl winners and two teams who have been in the Conference Championship as recently as 2020 so it shows how high many are on the Chargers.

 

The Chargers odds of winning the AFC currently sit at +750, trailing only the Bills and Chiefs, while their +220 odds to win the AFC West trail only the Chiefs.  Their odds of making the postseason are -160, while the over/under on their win total is currently 10 wins.

 

As for Herbert, his +1000 odds to win the NFL MVP place him in a fourth-place tie with Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has won 4 MVP, including the last two.  Those odds trail only Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

 

The success of the Chargers season will be determined by their defense.  We have seen that Herbert can lead a top-five offense, and he looks the part of a top-tier quarterback.  If the defense is able to make the jump to becoming, even, a top-15 unit, the Chargers should be able to make the postseason.  Contending for a Super Bowl may prove difficult, simply due to the level of talent across the AFC, particularly in their own division, the AFC West.  If their defense is unable to make that jump or battles injuries, and remains a bottom-level unit, then the Chargers could once again miss out on the postseason altogether, regardless of Herbert’s play.

The Los Angeles Chargers had a disappointing 2021 season.  Despite starting 4-1 and looking like a lock to make the postseason, the Chargers floundered down the stretch.  A Week 16 loss to the Houston Texans, one of the worst teams in the NFL, dimmed their postseason hopes, while a Week 18 loss to the rival Las Vegas Raiders put those hopes away for good.

 

Quarterback Justin Herbert took a step towards becoming a superstar, finishing second in the league in passing yards, and third in touchdowns and QBR.  He also finished second in comeback wins and tied for third in game-winning drives, while leading the Chargers to a top-five scoring offense.

The Chargers offense was held back by a defense that tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the third-most points allowed.  The New York Jets and Detroit Lions were the only teams that allowed more.  For a Chargers team with playoff expectations, it was unacceptable to have a defense that finished in the same realm as teams that have been consistently at the bottom of the standings.  It was no surprise to see the Chargers allocate a lot of assets towards fixing their defense.

Will big defensive changes help the Chargers?

Although it has rarely been a good way to determine success, the Chargers were viewed as one of this offseason’s big winners.  This was, in large part, due to the defensive help that they brought in.  The Chargers spent big in free agency to bring in cornerback Justin Jackson, who has been a turnover machine.  They also signed defensive tackles Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson.  The Chargers also made a splash on the trade market, acquiring four-time All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack from the Chicago Bears for a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 sixth-round pick.

 

The Chargers made a significant attempt to make sure that Herbert and the top-five offense aren’t once again held back by a bottom-five defense.  While their plan was great in theory, it remains to be seen how the pieces will gel.  Afterall, pass rusher Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James, who is holding out for a new contract, have both struggled with injuries in the past, while Mack is coming off a season-ending injury.

 

Either way, the Chargers front office is right to attempt to swing big.  Having a superstar quarterback on a rookie contract gives you the best chance to win.  It is wise to attempt to do so before Herbert, inevitably, signs a massive contract and the Chargers are forced to relinquish key pieces as the Kansas City Chiefs had to do this offseason.

Are the Chargers true Super Bowl contenders?

The Chargers have been a popular preseason pick to make a Super Bowl run.  Their +1400 odds of winning their first Super Bowl in franchise history reflect that preseason optimism.  Those odds are currently sixth in the entire NFL, trailing only the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Chiefs, and Los Angeles Rams.  That list includes the past three Super Bowl winners and two teams who have been in the Conference Championship as recently as 2020 so it shows how high many are on the Chargers.

 

The Chargers odds of winning the AFC currently sit at +750, trailing only the Bills and Chiefs, while their +220 odds to win the AFC West trail only the Chiefs.  Their odds of making the postseason are -160, while the over/under on their win total is currently 10 wins.

 

As for Herbert, his +1000 odds to win the NFL MVP place him in a fourth-place tie with Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has won 4 MVP, including the last two.  Those odds trail only Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

 

The success of the Chargers season will be determined by their defense.  We have seen that Herbert can lead a top-five offense, and he looks the part of a top-tier quarterback.  If the defense is able to make the jump to becoming, even, a top-15 unit, the Chargers should be able to make the postseason.  Contending for a Super Bowl may prove difficult, simply due to the level of talent across the AFC, particularly in their own division, the AFC West.  If their defense is unable to make that jump or battles injuries, and remains a bottom-level unit, then the Chargers could once again miss out on the postseason altogether, regardless of Herbert’s play.