Kansas City Chiefs 2022-2023 Season Preview

How will the Chiefs look without Tyreek Hill?  Can they reach their fifth straight AFC Championship game?

The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the most successful NFL franchises of the past decade.  They have made the playoffs eight times in nine years since Andy Reid took over as head coach.  They have been even better in the four years since Patrick Mahomes took over as quarterback.  In that span, the Chiefs have gone to four AFC Championship games and two Super Bowls, winning one.

One of the most important parts of the Chiefs dominant offense has been Tyreek Hill.  In his six years with the Chiefs, Hill made six Pro Bowls and was named an All-Pro four times.  Due to this success, the Chiefs decision to trade Hill to the Miami Dolphins made for arguably the most shocking move of the offseason.  In return for their star wide receiver, the Chiefs received a 2022 first-round pick, second-round pick, and fourth-round pick, and a 2023 fourth-round pick and sixth-round pick.

How will the Chiefs look without Tyreek Hill?

While the Chiefs do still have Reid, Mahomes and star tight end Travis Kelce, replacing Hill’s production will be no easy task.  In addition to his incredible stats (111 receptions, 1239 yards, and 9 touchdowns in 2021), Hill’s ability to stretch the field opened up the offense.

 

Hill led the Chiefs in all receiving categories in 2021, but he was far from the only pass catching option that has departed the team.  Of Mahomes top six weapons from 2021, only Kelce and Mecole Hardman will be back, as wide receivers Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson, and running back Darrel Williams all left Kansas City in free agency.

 

In order to offset the loss of so many weapons, the Chiefs brought in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster.  Both players have been inconsistent throughout their career, but the Chiefs are counting on one of them to take over for Hill as the top wide receiver.  The Chiefs also used a second-round pick to bring in wide receiver Skyy Moore.

 

While it will be nearly impossible for the Chiefs to replace Hill, both from a production and impact standpoint, the organization is counting on Mahomes to elevate some of the new faces.  This will likely be the worst set of weapons Mahomes has had thus far in his young career, but a decline shouldn’t be expected from the superstar quarterback.

Can the Chiefs reach their fifth straight AFC Championship game?

In addition to losing Hill, the Chiefs suffered some key losses on the defensive side of the ball, as well.  Four-time All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu, as well as fellow starters cornerback Charvarius Ward, defensive tackles Jarran Reed and Derrick Nnadi, and depth pieces cornerback Mike Hughes, safety Daniel Sorensen, and pass rusher Melvin Ingram all left the Chiefs in free agency.

 

Although the Chiefs were expected to lose key pieces with Mahomes’ new contract set to kick in this season, nobody expected them to lose this many pieces, particularly Hill.  The Chiefs did address some of their defensive losses by using both first-round picks and the latter of two second-round picks on that side of the ball.  They selected cornerback Trent McDuffie, pass rusher George Karlaftis, and safety Bryan Cook with those picks.

 

After winning at least 12 games in each of Mahomes first four years as a starter, the over/under on the Chiefs win total sits at 10.5 wins.  With all of the key departures, combined with an AFC West that should be the best division in football, it is no surprise that the Chiefs are expected to take a small step back.  Even with the improvements that the divisional rival Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos have made, the Chiefs are still the favorites to win the division with odds that sit at +175.

 

The Chiefs odds of making the playoffs currently sit at -215.  Their odds of winning the AFC, +600, are the second-best in the conference, trailing only the Buffalo Bills.  Their odds of winning their second Super Bowl with Mahomes and Reid leading the team are currently +1000, tied with the Green Bay Packers for third-best in the NFL, trailing only the Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

As for Mahomes, he currently sits at +900 to win his second career MVP award.  Those odds trail only Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady.  Although the Chiefs suffered key losses, if Mahomes is healthy and plays like his usual self, they should be a Super Bowl contender, once again.  While it may be more difficult to win the AFC West than it has been in recent memory, the Chiefs are still rightfully considered the favorites to win their seventh straight division crown.  Their recent success has earned them that right until proven otherwise.