Jacksonville Jaguars 2022-2023 Season Preview

Will Trevor Lawrence deliver on the promise that made him the first overall pick?  Can the Jaguars climb out of the AFC South basement?

The Jacksonville Jaguars were the worst team in the NFL, for the second straight year, in 2021.  After finishing 1-15 in 2020, the Jaguars used the first overall pick to select quarterback Trevor Lawrence, widely considered the best quarterback prospect since the Indianapolis Colts took Andrew Luck first overall back in 2012.  Although many viewed Lawrence as a once-in-a-generation talent, he struggled mightily in his rookie season, to the tune of just 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

 

While many expected Lawrence, and head coach Urban Meyer, to turn things around for the franchise, it was evident that it wouldn’t happen right away, as the rest of the roster left a lot to be desired.  Even without the expectations of being an instant success, it was still shocking to see how the Jaguars season transpired.

 

Meyer, one of the most revered coaches at the collegiate level, felt what it was like to lose for the first time, after never having a losing season in 17 seasons with four universities.  The Jaguars were off to a terrible start, and then reports began to surface that the team’s players and staff were not thrilled with Meyer.  The day after former Jaguars kicker, Josh Lambo, publicly accused Meyer of kicking him, Meyer was fired.  His stint with the organization was underwhelming as the team went just 2-11 in the 13 games Meyer coached.

 

After Meyer was fired, the organization finished just 1-3, bringing their final record for the season to 3-14.  The organization would, once again, wind up with the first overall pick.  While Lawrence was the consensus top-talent in 2021, there was no consensus pick in 2022.  The Jaguars ended up selecting pass rusher Travon Walker, a decision that has been highly criticized.

 

Walker may have the highest upside of any prospect in the 2022 draft class, but he also has a long way to go to reach that potential.  Walker, who became the first non-quarterback to only start one season and be drafted first overall, finished his college career with just 9.5 sacks.  He quickly rose up draft boards after a very strong combine, however, many felt that fellow pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who went second overall to the Detroit Lions, was a safer choice.  While Hutchinson’s ceiling may not be as high, his floor is much higher.

Can Trevor Lawrence deliver on the lofty expectations placed on him?

Entering his rookie season, Lawrence was widely viewed as a can’t-miss prospect who would, personally, be successful instantly, regardless of the team’s success.  Unfortunately for Lawrence, as is the case with most rookies in the NFL, he struggled to adjust to the NFL game.  Even with those struggles, Lawrence looks primed to bounce back.  Despite using both first-round picks on the defensive side of the ball, selecting Walker first overall and linebacker Devin Lloyd 27th overall, the Jaguars focused on improving the situation around Lawrence.

 

The Jaguars began their offseason by hiring Super Bowl winning head coach Doug Pederson.  A great offensive mind and former quarterback himself, Pederson should help Lawrence with his development.  Outside of the Pederson hire, the Jaguars extended the contract of offensive tackle Cam Robinson, while also adding All-Pro offensive guard Brandon Scherff, wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, and tight end Evan Engram in free agency.

 

Lawrence may not be able to replicate the first overall pick from 2020, Joe Burrow, and take the leap into stardom in his second season, but expect him to show signs that he is headed in that direction.  The Jaguars should not be in a rush with Lawrence and should be focusing on simply ensuring that the quarterback continues to develop and improve.

Can the Jaguars climb out of the AFC South basement?

In addition to drafting first overall in the past two drafts, the Jaguars have also finished last in the AFC South the past four seasons.  While it is unlikely that they will go from last to first, as Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals did in 2021, the Jaguars are unlikely to finish last in a division that also features the Houston Texans, who should be in contention for the number one pick.

 

The oddsmakers seem to agree as the Jaguars currently have the third-best odds, +700, to win the AFC South.  The Jaguars currently sit at +450 to make the postseason, while their over/under win total is 6.5 wins.  The Jaguars are currently +6500 to win the AFC, ahead of just the Texans and New York Jets.  Their odds of winning the Super Bowl, +13000, are tied with the Jets, New York Giants, and Carolina Panthers for the sixth-worst in the NFL, ahead of only the Texans, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Seattle Seahawks.

 

The Jaguars are unlikely to seriously contend for a postseason spot in a very crowded AFC, but they should be a competitive team.  While every team would love to contend, the Jaguars should be happy with the improvement, and could be a threat in an aging AFC South sooner than later.