Dolphins Look To Break Losing Streak Against Pesky Packers |OSB
Dolphins Look To Break Losing Streak Against Pesky Packers
By Sam Batz
The first of three games scheduled for Christmas day is the Miami Dolphins (www.miamidolphins.com) versus the Green Bay Packers (www.packers.com). Miami’s recent downward spiral has given the team a 75% chance to make the playoffs after dropping three games in a row. Before the current struggles, the Dolphins were on a five-game winning streak and looked ready to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Packers have won their last two games and have a 12% chance to make the playoffs. It has been a disappointing season for Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, but with a win on Sunday against the Dolphins, their postseason chances improve to 26% and keeps the Cheeseheads playoff hopes alive.
Miami are second place in the AFC East with a 8-6 record. They are 2-3 in their last five games but are a -3.5 point favorite in their matchup with the Packers on Sunday. The Dolphins can not guarantee a playoff spot with a victory tomorrow but their chances improve to 82% if they win. Tua Tagovailoa is having the best season of his young career, and with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, I like the Dolphins chances in this game.
After losing star wide-out Devante Adams to the Raiders, the Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers have not been the same. They are third place in the NFC North with a 6-8 record. They will need to win-out, as well as get some help, if they are to have any chance to make the playoffs. Green Bay can actually be eliminated from playoff contention if they lose tomorrow against the Dolphins and the Washington Commanders win their game. The Commanders play the white-hot 49er’s, so the Packers chance’s don’t actually look that desperate. But if they lose, they can kiss the postseason goodbye.
I like the Dolphins in this game. Miami averages 370.4 yards per game, mostly through the air, averaging 273.6 passing yards. However, this will be a close game as the Packers are only allowing 185.1 passing yards to opponents. Green Bay has a talented secondary, led by All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander. Nevertheless, they will be going up against Miami’s speedy receivers and will find it difficult to track them all over the field. In a straight moneyline bet, I recommend taking the Dolphins.
Both sides will be vying for playoff position and will have their best players on the field as much as possible. Either side will look to get the ball to their playmakers whenever they can. There will be a lot of talent on the field in this one and we could see some big numbers from several guys.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins WR, Over 90.5 Receiving Yards
Green Bay is giving up the second lowest passing yards to opponents and they average 135.2 passing yards per game to wide-receivers. They are a talented defense. But they have yet to go up against a player like Tyreek Hill. The fastest guy in the league has been phenomenal this season. Hill is averaging 109.2 yards per game and has dominated the Miami target share. He has 109 receptions for 1,529 receiving yards, and in a nearly must-win game for the Dolphins, Hill will be featured early and often. Jaire Alexander will have his hands full in this one trying to keep up with Hill and Waddle and I think Hill will win a majority of the balls that come his way. I predict Tyreek Hill will go over his 90.5 receiving yards prop.
Aaron Jones, Packers RB, Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones is an elite runner. After Devante Adams left the Packers this offseason, Jones became the de facto offensive weapon. Green Bay will want to get Jones involved as much as possible, both in the run and pass game. However, Miami’s rush defense is decent, allowing 111.3 rushing yards per game to their opponents. Additionally, Jones splits time with fellow running back AJ Dillion. The rushing duo have been at a near even split in recent weeks, with Jones working as the Packers catching-back. Jones is set up for success catching the ball against the Dolphins defense who is allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. Jones will catch the dump-offs and Dillion will take the hands-offs. Aaron Jones will have a good game but I predict he will have more receiving yards than rushing yards. I recommend taking the under on his 55.5 rushing yards prop.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins QB, Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Out of all of Tua’s prop bets, I am most confident in his passing touchdown prospects. Tua, the only left-handed starting QB in the league, has thrown for at least one touchdown in every game he has started for the Dolphins; other than the week 4 game against Cincinnati when Tua went down with his infamous head injury. Tagovailoa has thrown for 2 or more touchdowns six times this season, and on Christmas day, will go up against a Packers defense that is giving up an average of 22.4 points per game. I predict Tua will go over his 1.5 passing touchdowns prop.
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