Denver Broncos 2022-2023 Season Preview

Can Russell Wilson lead the Broncos back into prominence?

The Denver Broncos have not made the postseason since 2015, Peyton Manning’s last season under center, when they won the Super Bowl.  In that time, they have had a quarterback carousel that has seen Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, and Teddy Bridgewater all start at least one game.  They have also had multiple top ten defenses, including once again in 2021, and many felt that they were a quarterback away from contention.

 

Upon the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season, where the Broncos went 7-10 and finished last in the AFC West despite an excellent defense, the Broncos hired former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to be their new head coach.  While many expected Aaron Rodgers to follow Hackett to Denver, ultimately he resigned with the Packers, and the Broncos were forced to pivot.

 

The Broncos were able to complete a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks, acquiring quarterback Russell Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round draft pick for quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive end Shelby Harris, 2022 first-round, second-round, and fifth-round picks, and 2023 first-round and second-round picks.

Wilson, who spent the previous ten seasons with the Seahawks, is one of the most heralded quarterbacks of this generation.  He has been to two Super Bowls, winning one, ironically, against Manning and the Broncos.  He has also been to nine Pro Bowls and made eight postseason appearances.  Having had consistent success on both a personal and team level, many expect Wilson to continue to thrive in Denver.

 

The Broncos also bolstered their defensive line by signing Randy Gregory away from the Dallas Cowboys to replace Von Miller, who they traded to the Los Angeles Rams last season, and play across from Bradley Chubb.  They also picked up Packers offensive lineman Billy Turner, while retaining their own key free agents running back Melvin Gordon and safety Kareem Jackson.  The Broncos did, however, lose cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Bryce Callahan in free agency.

Will Wilson be enough to lead the Broncos back into the postseason?

Any time a superstar player like Wilson is traded, the expectation is that they will bring instant success to their new organization.  For a Broncos team that finished last in the AFC West in 2021, with a 7-10 record, that will be a difficult, yet not impossible, task.  While Teddy Bridgewater didn’t have a bad season by any means in 2021, he is no Russell Wilson and the Broncos believe that the upgrade could be enough to get them to the postseason for the first time in seven seasons.

 

In 2021, the Broncos had a top-five scoring defense and a top-ten defense in terms of yards allowed.  Their offense was below average, however, ranking in the bottom half of nearly every offensive metric.  The Broncos rushing attack was the only above average part of their offense, ranking 13th in yards and 14th in touchdowns.  With Gordon and second-year back Javonte Williams both returning, as well as Wilson’s scrambling ability, they will look to have a top-ten rushing attack in 2022.

 

Although Wilson will no longer be throwing to star wideouts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Broncos receiving group does have the potential to take a step forward in 2022.  Wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick all have some level of untapped talent and it wouldn’t be surprising to see at least one, if not more, of the group break out this coming season.

 

Wilson, who is coming off a down year for his standards where he also missed some time due to injury, is looking to bounce back and return to the postseason.  Despite somehow never receiving an MVP vote in his career, Wilson is being given the seventh-best odds, currently +1400, to win the award.  He trails only Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow.

 

As for the Broncos, their odds to win the Super Bowl sit at +1600, tied with the San Francisco 49ers for the seventh best odds, trailing only the Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, Rams, and Chargers.  Their +850 odds to win the AFC trail only the Bills, Chiefs, and Chargers, while their +260 odds to win the AFC West trail the Chiefs and Chargers.  The Broncos are currently -150 to make the postseason with an over/under on their win total sitting at ten games, which shows just how much a good quarterback can change for a team.

 

While the Broncos are a popular pick to make the postseason, it will be difficult in a crowded AFC West.  Of the three AFC teams with better Super Bowl odds than the Broncos, two play in their division.  The fourth AFC West team, the Las Vegas Raiders, are coming off a postseason berth of their own and have improved on paper by adding Davante Adams.  The division should be the best in football in 2022.  Of the 16 AFC teams, there are 13 that could realistically make a postseason push, as the New York Jets, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars are the only teams that don’t look likely to contend.

 

Even in a deep division and conference, adding a quarterback like Russell Wilson to a defense that played at an elite level in 2021 will make the Broncos a very tough team to beat in 2022.  Facing a last place schedule in the AFC will help them in a tight postseason race, as they will get to play all three of the non-contending AFC teams.  Making the postseason will likely hinge on improving their divisional record, where they went just 1-5 a season ago.  If they are able to reach the postseason, the Broncos defense, if they are able to repeat their 2021 performance, will make them a tough matchup for almost any team.