Cleveland Browns 2022-2023 Season Preview

Will Deshaun Watson play this year?  Will it be enough in a crowded AFC North?

The Cleveland Browns made, by far, the most controversial move of the offseason.  Some would even argue that it is the most controversial move in NFL history.  On paper, their trade for Deshaun Watson, and subsequent fully guaranteed $230 million contract extension, is a franchise altering move that could potentially push them into contender status.  In reality, the trade for Watson, which cost the Browns their 2022 first-round and and fourth-round selections, their 2023 first-round and third-round selections, and their 2024 first-round and fourth-round selections, is arguably more complicated than any blockbuster trade we’ve seen.

Watson, one of the league’s most talented young quarterbacks, requested a trade from the Houston Texans following the 2020 season and found himself in a standoff with the front office up until 24 allegations of sexual misconduct emerged.  The Texans chose to sit Watson out for the entire 2021 season before trading him to the Browns this offseason.

Will Deshaun Watson play this season?

Since the trade to Cleveland, 20 of the 24 lawsuits have been settled, while 4 remain ongoing.  It has been reported that the league is looking to suspend Watson for at least the entire 2022 season, while the Browns believe that the suspension will be less than ten games.  While those are very different accounts of where things stand, both suspensions are lengthy enough to derail the Browns season in a AFC North race where all four teams are playoff hopefuls.

 

The Browns recently traded former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers for a conditional fifth-round pick, and will have Jacoby Brissett under center in Watson’s absence.  In an AFC North that would be tough even with Watson, having Brissett as the starting quarterback for an extended period would likely derail the Browns season.

 

It’s tough to speculate on a possible Watson suspension, as there isn’t much precedent and there have been no criminal charges filed, but based on the reports that have come out, it is likely that he could miss at least eight games.  Adding Watson at the halfway point of the season could be too late for the Browns to climb back into contention.

Will Watson be enough in a crowded AFC North?

The Browns, who were a popular preseason pick going into 2021, would likely be the AFC North favorites if Watson were available for a full season.  Despite finishing third in division in 2021, as they did in each of the four years with Mayfield under center, the Browns arguably have the best rushing duo in the league, with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield.  They also boast a strong offensive line and defense.

 

They were also able to replace Jarvis Landry, who they released, with Amari Cooper, who was acquired, along with a 2022 sixth-round pick, in a trade with the Dallas Cowboys for a 2022 fifth-round and sixth-round pick.  Adding an elite quarterback like Watson, if circumstances were normal, would make them a very popular preseason pick.

 

Instead, the Browns, with the uncertainty looming over Watson’s season, are being given the third-best odds, +275, to win the AFC North, trailing both the Baltimore Ravens, +160, and Cincinnati Bengals, +190.  They are being given the 14th best odds to win the Super Bowl, currently sitting at a +2800, and the 8th best odds, +1400, to win the AFC.  The Browns are the one team with playoff odds and over/under win total odds currently unavailable, likely due to the uncertainty around the most important position in football.

 

If Watson is able to return by week seven, when the Browns travel to Baltimore, the Browns may be able to salvage their season.  While they do have a divisional home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as a game against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first six weeks, there are also a lot of winnable games, even if they are missing Watson.  Beginning with week seven, the schedule gets a lot tougher, and if Watson is not back, the Browns may fall in a hole that is too deep to climb out of and make the postseason.

 

While the Browns season hinges on Watson’s availability, if they are able to sustain his absence and remain in the postseason race until he returns, they could be a very popular pick to make a deep run.  Adding an elite quarterback to a team that hasn’t had many holes in recent years could allow Cleveland to become a very good football team.

 

It remains to be seen if Watson will have to shake off rust or if he will take time to learn the playbook, but if he’s anything like he was in 2020, when we last saw him and he led the league in passing yards, without much help in Houston, then the Browns could make a deep playoff push if they get there.  Going from Mayfield, a decent middle of the pack quarterback, to Watson, an elite top-ten, arguably top-five, quarterback can change a teams fortunes significantly.  We don’t know how much time Watson will miss, but if it is not an extended period, expect the Browns to be a very good football team in 2022.  If it is an extended period, then they will likely be the opposite.  Much of their potential success hinges on what the NFL decides to do with Watson, something that should be resolved sooner than later.