Chiefs vs. Raiders: Prediction & Player Prop Tips

By Sam Batz

The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Sin City on Saturday, Jan. 7th for an AFC West clash with the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West championship but are still vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC against the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. The Raiders were eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the 49ers in overtime last Sunday. The Raiders have nothing to play for besides their pride, but against their bitter AFC West rival, Las Vegas will certainly do their best to knock Kansas City out of the running for the top spot in the conference. 

The Chiefs are 13-3, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the best record in the NFL. Kansas City has won their last four games, most recently beating the Seahawks 24-10 at home. The Chiefs have the best offense in the league. They have racked up the most total yards (6,683), the most yards per game (417.7), the most passing yards per game (305.1), the most points (465), and the most points per game (29.1). They are difficult to beat, both at home and on the road, and are tied with the Bills for the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +380. 

The Raiders have struggled this season. They were a favorite to make the playoffs at the start of the year, but have utterly flopped. Las Vegas is 6-10 and have been eliminated from the playoffs. They have a talented offense, full of top-tier players, but the defense has been a complete disaster. Vegas is allowing 366.7 total yards per game, most of that through the air, as well as 24.2 points per contest. On Saturday, the Raiders face the top-offense in the league, and will find it exceedingly difficult to stop them. 

 

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds

Betting odds courtesy of Pointsbet:

• Spread: Chiefs -8.5; Raiders +8.5
• Over/Under: 52.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Chiefs -425; Raider +330

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Bettings Trends

• The Chiefs are 6-10 ATS 
• The Raiders are 8-8 ATS 
• The Chiefs are 3-5 ATS on the road
• The Raiders are 5-2 ATS at home 
• The Chiefs are 1-10 ATS against the AFC 
• The Raiders are 6-5 ATS against the AFC
• The Chiefs Over/Under record is 8-8
• The Raiders Over/Under record is 8-7-1
• The Chiefs are 12-2 when they are the Favorite 
• The Raiders are 2-4 when they are the Underdog

 

Prediction

The Chiefs are heavily favored in this matchup and I have to go agree with the 

Sportsbooks. Kansas City will win this game. They are playing for the top spot in the AFC, while the Raiders don’t have much to play for. Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 against the Raiders in his career, throwing for 26 total touchdowns and 2,838 yards against the Silver and Black. Las Vegas held their own when they last played the Chiefs back in week 5, losing by just one-point, but with the No. 1 seed on the line, I fully expect Kansas City to enter this game focused and ready to win. 

 

Prediction: Kansas City Covers and the Under. Final Score: 27-17 

 

Favorite Player Props

 

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB, Under 325.5 passing yards & Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes

Patricks Mahomes has haunted the Raiders ever since he entered the league. He has played his AFC West rivals nine times and has only lost once. He averages 2.8 touchdowns per game against the Raiders, and with the No. 1 seed in the AFC on the line, I expect him to have another classic Mahomes vs. Raiders performance. Patrick Mahomes is leading the league in passing yards (5,048), passing touchdowns (40), and has the highest QBR (77.8). He has been a machine all year, making spectacular plays with his side-arm slings, over the shoulder dump-offs, and no look passes down field. He has thrown for 300+ yards an astonishing ten times, and averages a league leading 315.5 yards per game.

The Chiefs will want to play it safe against Vegas. The last thing they need is for Mahomes to get hurt right before the playoffs. I could even see them pulling the star QB before the game is over if they have a big lead. They will lean on the running game and give Mahomes’ arm a bit of a breather. I fully expect Mahomes to have a great day and will certainly throw for at least 200+ yards and multiple scores. But I predict he will throw for under 325.5 passing yards but over 2.5 touchdowns. 

 

Davante Adams, Raiders WR, Over 80.5 receiving yards

This year was Davante Adams’ first season with the Las Vegas Raiders and he did not disappoint. After reuniting with his college quarterback, Derek Carr, Adams looked every bit as good as he was in Green Bay. He is leading the Raiders in targets (171), receptions (95), yards (1,443), and touchdowns (14). In fact, Adams is leading all NFL wide-outs in receiving touchdowns. He is averaging 90.2 yards per game and on Saturday, goes up against a Kansas City secondary that is giving up 223.5 passing yards. Adams will be a problem for KC. He posted 124 yards and 2 touchdowns off of just 3 receptions the last time he faced the Chiefs, and in his previous game, with Jarrett Stidham under center, recorded a surprising 7 receptions, 153 yards, and 2 scores. I predict he will finish the season strong and go over his 80.5 receiving yards prop. 

Travis Kelce, Chiefs TE, Under 75.5 receiving yards & Over 6.5 receptions

Kelce is leading the Chiefs in targets (145), receptions (104), yards (1,300), and receiving touchdowns (12). Kelce averages 81.3 yards per game but has been held under 75 yards seven times this season. He will see plenty of receptions but may find it difficult to gain yardage against the team that held him to just 25 yards back in week 5. I predict Travis Kelce will go under 75.5 receiving yards but will have more than 6.5 receptions. 

 

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