Carolina Panthers 2022-2023 Season Preview

Will Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold win the quarterback job?  Can either lead the team to the postseason?

The Carolina Panthers enter the 2022 NFL season coming off of three straight five win seasons, in which they have had no stability at the quarterback position, utilizing six different starting quarterbacks, including two stints by two of the six.  In that span, their scoring offense has not ranked higher than 20th, while their scoring defense has not ranked higher than 18th, both consistently winding up in the bottom half of the NFL.

 

The Panthers entered the offseason as one of several teams looking to upgrade the quarterback position, and were initially one of the teams interested in trading for Deshaun Watson.  It seemed that the Panthers were ready to offer the Houston Texans a large package of players and picks, but, ultimately, the organization was unwilling to fully guarantee Watson’s contract, which the Cleveland Browns ultimately did.

 

With the Watson door closing, his trade to the Browns opened up another door, as the Browns now needed to relocate their starter of the previous four seasons, Baker Mayfield.  While Mayfield is nowhere near the talent that Watson is, the lack of assets and guaranteed money needed to get him, made him a far more attainable target.

Will Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold win the quarterback job?

Mayfield, the first overall pick of the 2018 draft, was acquired by Carolina for the small price of a conditional 2024 fifth-round pick.  If Mayfield plays 70% of the snaps, that pick will become a fourth-round pick.  The Panthers will only pay $4.85 million of Mayfield’s salary with the Browns picking up $10.5 million and Mayfield agreeing to convert $3.5 million to incentives.  With such a small amount given up, both in terms of salary and assets, the move has the potential to be a low-risk, high-reward trade.

 

While it remains to be seen if Mayfield will win the starting job, the low cost of acquiring a recent first overall pick made the trade an easy decision for the Panthers.  The cost to acquire Mayfield was far less than what the Panthers gave up for Sam Darnold, the third overall pick of the 2018 draft, one year prior, when they acquired the quarterback from the New York Jets for a 2021 sixth-round pick and a 2022 second-round pick and fourth-round pick.

 

Both Mayfield and Darnold, the top two quarterbacks off the board in a 2018 draft class that also included Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, have struggled in their young careers.  Mayfield has had more success, but he has also had far more talent around him.  Even though the team gave up much more compensation to acquire Darnold, whom they are also paying far more, it is likely that Mayfield has the better shot to win the quarterback job.  If the Panthers staff and front office were comfortable with Darnold as their starter, they wouldn’t have made a move for Mayfield, even at his low cost.

Can either quarterback lead the Panthers to the postseason?

The Panthers began 2021 with three straight wins, and it looked like Darnold had overcome the struggles that he had with the Jets.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, star running back Christian McCaffrey was injured in that third win, and both the Panthers and Darnold’s seasons began to spiral out of control.

 

McCaffrey, who has been one of the best running backs in the NFL, while healthy, has only been able to take the field in ten of the Panthers 34 games over the past two seasons.  When last healthy in 2019, McCaffrey was an All-Pro, accounting for 19 total touchdowns and 2392 yards from scrimmage, which is the third most in NFL history.  Having McCaffrey healthy will go a long way to helping them climb out of the NFL’s cellar.

 

The Panthers, who have had top-ten picks in each of the past three drafts, will look to bounce back in what should be one of the NFL’s worst divisions in 2022.  It is unlikely that they will go from last to first in the NFC South, particularly with Tom Brady returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Panthers currently have +1000 odds to win the division, good for third-best in the division.

 

The Panthers chances of winning the NFC are highly unlikely, and their odds, +6000, reflect that.  Those odds are tied with the New York Giants and Detroit Lions for the fourth-worst in the conference, better than only the Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, and division rival Atlanta Falcons.  Their Super Bowl odds, +13000, are tied with the Giants, Jets, and Jacksonville Jaguars for the sixth-worst in the NFL, better than only the Lions, Seahawks, Bears, Falcons, and Texans.

 

The Panthers odds of making the playoffs currently sit at +400, while the over/under on their win total sits at just 6.5 wins.  Although this would represent an improvement over last season, it would likely also represent a fourth straight year picking in the top-ten with no clear quarterback of the future.  It is not surprising that the Panthers aren’t expected to compete in 2022.  It is not hard to see why, as both Mayfield and Darnold have struggled enough that it is hard to show faith in either of them turning it around enough to lead the Panthers to the postseason.