Can Allen Finally Beat Mahomes in the Playoffs? | Chiefs vs. Bills | OSB
NFL Wild Card: Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) at Buffalo Bills (12-6)
By Sam Batz
When: Sunday, January 21st at 8:15 PM EST
Where: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Watch On: CBS
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
The NFL postseason continues on Sunday with the highly anticipated rematch between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Since 2020, the Chiefs have dominated this matchup, going 2-0 against the Bills in the playoffs. Now Buffalo has a shot at revenge, and this time it’ll be on their turf. Both of Buffalo’s previous two losses came in Kansas City where the Chiefs reign supreme, going 11-2 at home in the playoffs since 2019. The Bills catch a huge break with home field advantage on their side, and as a result, Buffalo is the favorite.
The Bills are 7-2 as favorites at home, and have a lot of momentum after beating the Steelers 31-17 in the Wild Card round. But don’t count the reigning champions out just yet. The Chiefs may have had a down year, but they still managed to win their division, securing a playoff spot for the 9th consecutive season. Kansas City’s postseason experience is invaluable, and the Chiefs have a winning mentality most teams can only dream of, especially in January.
Below you’ll find our Chiefs vs. Bills predictions, including: stats, scores, and betting advice on everything from the moneyline to player props. We’ll help you navigate the odds and provide helpful betting tips so that you walk away with a great payout in this Divisional Round matchup.
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds
Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | +2.5 (+100) | Ov 45.5 (-110) | +122 |
Buffalo Bills | -2.5 (-120) | Un 45.5 (-110) | -145 |
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Odds are constantly changing but OSB is here to keep you updated. Click here for the latest odds on the Chiefs vs. Bills game, along with every postseason matchup.
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds Breakdown
If you take the Chiefs Moneyline (+122): You can bet $100 to profit $122, for a total payout of $222, if the Chiefs win.
If you take the Chiefs to Cover the +2.5 Point Spread (+100): You can bet $100 to profit $100, for a total payout of $200, if the Chiefs win the game, or lose by fewer than 2.5 points.
If you take the Bills Moneyline (-145): You can risk $145 to win $100, for a total payout of $245, if the Bills win.
If you take the Bills to Cover the -2.5 Point Spread (-120): You can risk $120 to win $100, for a total payout of $220, if the Bills win the game by at least 2.5 points.
If you take the Over on the 45.5 point total (-110): You can risk $110 to win $100, for a total payout of $210, if the Chiefs and Bills combine for more than 45.5 total points.
If you take the Under on the 45.5 point total (-110): You can risk $110 to win $100, for a total payout of $210, if the Chiefs and Bills combine for fewer than 45.5 total points.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Trends
Kansas City Chiefs
- 10-7-1 ATS this season
- 4-3-1 ATS on the road
- 13-20 ATS in the Playoffs All-Time
- 5-13 O/U record this season
- 4-4 O/U record on the road
- 15-18-1 O/U record in the Playoffs All-Time
- 1-0 as UNDERDOGS this season
- 1-0 as UNDERDOGS on the road
Buffalo Bills
- 8-10 ATS this season
- 5-5 ATS at home
- 14-18-2 ATS in the Playoffs All-Time
- 7-11 O/U record this season
- 4-6 O/U record at home
- 17-12-2 O/U record in the Playoffs All-Time
- 10-4 as FAVORITES
- 7-2 as FAVORITES at home
Chiefs vs. Bills: Player Prop
Travis Kelce, Chiefs TE; Prop Bet: O/U 63.5 receiving yards
Prediction: Over (-115)
Travis Kelce did not have the dominant season many of us were expecting, but the 34-year old tight end still led the Chiefs in targets, receptions, and yards in his 10th NFL season. Kelce remains the best option for Patrick Mahomes in a depleted receiving corps. The Chiefs led the NFL in drops this season, but Kelce remained a staple of the offense, and his player prop here is attractive because of the matchup. The Bills aren’t great against tight ends, giving up 76 yards to Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth last week, and 83 yards to Kelce himself in week 14. If the Chiefs are going to win, Kelce will need to be involved early and often, so take the over on his 63.5 receiving yard prop bet.
Chiefs vs. Bills Game Predictions
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are bound to give us another instant classic in the Bills vs. Chiefs chronicles. This is going to be a hard fought, tightly contested, must-watch matchup, but in the end, the Buffalo Bills will finally beat the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is playing the first postseason game of his career on the road, and the Bills Mafia is going to be all over him. Josh Allen has been instrumental to the Bills success, using his arm and legs to march the offense down the field. Buffalo averaged 26.8 points per game over their last 5, while the Chiefs offense is not the efficient unit we’re used to seeing, averaging 21.0 points in their last 5.
The Chiefs defense could save them, especially if Allen is careless with the ball. In 12 of his last 14 games, Josh Allen has thrown at least 1 interception. However, Buffalo’s defense has at least 2 takeaways in their last 3 games, and forced two turnovers (1 fumble, 1 interception) the last time they faced Kansas City. This one could go either way, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out, but recent trends have tipped the scales in Buffalo’s favor, and I’m going with the Bills.
Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills (-145)
ATS Pick: Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
O/U Pick: Over (45.5)
Score: Chiefs 27; Bills 30
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