Atlanta Falcons 2022-2023 Season Preview

How will the Falcons look without Matt Ryan for the first time since 2007?

The Atlanta Falcons finished the 2021 NFL season with a 7-10 record, a somewhat surprising record considering that the team finished ranked 26th in scoring offense and 29th in scoring defense.  It marked their fourth straight losing season in five years since Matt Ryan led the team to the Super Bowl, where they suffered a 34-28 loss, in heartbreaking fashion, to the New England Patriots, after being ahead 28-3 late in the third quarter.

 

Although Ryan has remained one of the league’s most consistent quarterbacks, it was clear that the organization was headed towards a rebuild after trading Julio Jones the previous offseason and keeping Ryan didn’t make much sense.  Ryan, who came up 32 yards short of throwing for 4000 yards for the eleventh straight season, was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a third-round pick.  This was surprisingly low compensation for the 2016 NFL MVP, the only player in Falcons history to win the award, but the Falcons wanted to ensure that their long-time quarterback would end up in a destination of choosing.

 

Entering 2022, the Falcons will be without Ryan for the first time since 2007, when Joey Harrington entered the season as their starting quarterback, due to Michael Vick’s arrest.  This will be just the second season in the last two decades where the Falcons begin the season without either Ryan or Vick atop their quarterback depth chart.  Despite the remarkable stability at the league’s most important position, the Falcons have not had much success, making the playoffs just eight times and winning the NFC South just four times.

How will the Falcons look without Ryan under center?

With Ryan now in Indianapolis, the Falcons will begin the season with either former Heisman winner Marcus Mariota or rookie third-round pick Desmond Ridder under center.  Although Falcons fans might prefer to see what they have in their rookie quarterback, Mariota should be considered the favorite to start, particularly due to his familiarity with head coach Arthur Smith and his offense, as the pair spent five seasons together with the Tennessee Titans.

 

Mariota had varying levels of success in Tennessee, as, in 2017, he led the Titans to their first playoff win since the Steve McNair era, but was eventually benched in favor of Ryan Tannehill in 2019.  Although Mariota was not performing poorly at the time of his benching, Tannehill’s immediate success made it clear that Mariota’s future was no longer in Tennessee.

 

Mariota, the second overall pick in the 2015 draft, would end up having to wait for his next legitimate starting opportunity, as he spent the following two years backing up Derek Carr on the Las Vegas Raiders, where he was mostly used as a gadget quarterback.  In his two seasons with the Raiders, Mariota played just 89 snaps, most of which came in a game where Carr was forced to leave due to injury.

 

Although his playing time has been limited, many believe that Mariota is talented enough to start in the NFL, and it appears likely that he will be given an opportunity to do so in Atlanta.  Unfortunately for Mariota, or Ridder if he is able to win the job, he will be without the Falcons top wideout, Calvin Ridley, who was suspended indefinitely, for, at least, the entire season, for placing bets on games during the 2021 season.

 

The Falcons have used back-to-back top-ten picks on skill players, selecting Kyle Pitts fourth overall in 2021 and Drake London eighth overall in 2022.  If Pitts, the only rookie tight end besides Mike Ditka to eclipse 1000 yards, can repeat his success from his rookie year, while London joins him and makes immediate contributions, the offense could take a step forward.  Pitts, who was the highest drafted tight end in NFL history, made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, and the team is hopeful that he can build on that success, even with Ryan gone.

 

Unfortunately for the Falcons, even if Mariota or Ridder perform well, it is unlikely that the team will be a playoff team in 2022.  A more likely result is that they end up winning less than the seven games they won in 2021.  Their current odds seem to reflect that possibility, as their over/under win total is just five wins, while their odds to make the playoffs are currently +800.

 

Their odds of winning the NFC South, +2800, are by far the worst in the division, and are the second worst in the entire NFL, ahead of only the Houston Texans by a small margin.  Their odds of winning the NFC, +10000, are the worst in the entire conference, while their Super Bowl odds, +20000, are the second-worst in the NFL, ahead of, once again, only the Texans.

 

After several years of attempting to compete with an aging quarterback, it appears that the Falcons are at the beginning stages of a rebuild.  The Falcons seem more likely to end up with a top-three pick than they are to make the postseason, which may not be a bad thing considering the 2023 quarterback class, headlined by Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, who finished first and fourth, respectively, in the 2021 Heisman race.  Although the Falcons spent a third-round pick on Ridder, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go back to the position if they end up with a top-two pick as the consensus seems to be that Young and Stroud have far more upside than Ridder, or any of the quarterbacks drafted in 2022.