Patriots vs. Cardinals

Monday Night Football: Favorite Prop Bets

By Sam Batz

            The New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals round off week 14 of the NFL on Monday night in what should be a tightly contested AFC vs NFC match-up. The Patriots are a -1 point favorite, meaning this one is truly a toss-up. I would recommend avoiding any spread or moneyline bets, and would instead focus on props in this game. There are favorable match-ups for several players on either side of the ball who will look to make an impact for their teams in this prime time showdown.

New England is an unfamiliar territory, sitting in the last place spot in the AFC East with a 6-6 record. This will be a must win for the Patriots if they are to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Cardinals enter this game with a 4-8 record and are on the outside looking in on the playoffs. Both the Patriots and the Cardinals have lost their last two games and will desperately try to avoid a three-game losing streak. The Patriots are fighting for their lives to stay in the playoff hunt and the Cardinals are just trying to salvage whatever they can from a disappointing season.

 

DeAndre Hopkins Over 75.5 Receiving Yards

           

            Ever since returning from his six game suspension for violating the NFL’s PED rules, Hopkins has been the top wideout in Arizona. He leads the team in receiving yards with 574 and is tied with Marquise Brown for the most receptions with 49. Hopkins O/U is set at 75.5 receiving yards, which is 20.2 yards less than his 95.7 yards per game average. New England has been impressive on the defensive side of the ball but we can’t see them holding Hopkins 20 yards under his receiving average. We expect Hopkins to be the top target for the Cardinals in this one, especially with fellow Cardinals wideout Rondale Moore sidelined with a groin injury. It will be up to Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins to pick up the slack, as each of them will certainly see an increased target share. Hopkins has recorded over 80 receiving yards in five out of the six games he’s played this season and we anticipate him continuing this trend against the Patriots, who have allowed over 200 passing yards in their last two games.

Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury loves putting the ball in the air, as the team runs a passing play 54% of the time. This should equate to plenty of opportunities for Hopkins to get the ball and use his play making abilities to post big numbers on Monday Night. We would take the over on Hopkins 75.5 receiving yards prop.

 

Hunter Henry Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

The Cardinals have been atrocious when it comes to covering tight ends. They are allowing 73.3 passing yards per game to the position, the highest total in the NFL. Patriots TE Hunter Henry should be able to exploit this weakness in his opponent’s defense on Monday night. Henry has had a quiet season for the Patriots, topping 25 yards in just four games, as the run-heavy Belichick offense has him being utilized mainly as a run blocker. New England has struggled to move the ball through the air but could see more success in this game against the Arizona defense that has allowed 245.4 pass yards per game this season. The Cardinals defense has struggled against the pass, but have been decent against the run, allowing an average of 110.8 rushing yards per game. This means Mac Jones, the Patriots QB, will likely be featured more prominently in this one, thus increasing the chances for Hunter Henry to have a big game against the worst TE coverage in the league. Moreover, New England’s top WR Jakobi Meyers, who has accounted for approximately 19% of New England’s target share, is out for this game. Henry will certainly see more of the ball with Meyers out, especially if the game script starts leaning towards a pass-heavy approach against a floundering Arizona secondary. We would take the over on Hunter Henry’s 30.5 receiving yards prop.

 

Mac Jones Under 225.5 Passing Yards

            Mac Jones has been the definition of hot and cold this season. His inconsistency has frustrated Patriot’s fans, and even earned himself a spot on the bench, relinquishing the starting job to rookie QB Bailey Zappe midway through the season. Jones earned the starting role back but will need to have a big game in order to solidify himself as the unquestioned leader of the New England offense. Unfortunately for Jones, he continues to struggle with accuracy, putting the ball in some questionable spots, and leaving his receivers with no other option but to drop the pass or get absolutely rocked by hard hitting tackles.

Jones had a solid outing against the Vikings in week 12, throwing for 382 yards and two scores, but struggled last week against the Bills ball-hawking secondary. This week, he gets an easier opponent in the Arizona Cardinals, but with head coach Bill Belichick favoring the run this season, Jones could take a backseat to his running backs in this one. If the Patriots take an early lead and start to bleed the clock by sticking with the ground game, it will be difficult for Jones to break the 225.5 passing yard threshold.

Another setback for Mac Jones will be due to the fact that Jakobi Meyers, Jones’ favorite target, will be out for this game with a concussion. Jones will need to look to his other options, especially his TEs, if he is to find success against the Cardinals. If the Patriots can’t get the running game going with Rahmondre Stevenson, then Jones has a chance to post big numbers. However, I don’t anticipate Bill Belichick leaning on his struggling QB in a must win game. We would take the under on Mac Jones’ 225.5 passing yards prop.