2022 NFL Wins Projections and Over/Under Bets

The NFL 2022 season is almost underway. July is the last month without football. What a relief that is. Major sportsbooks have released their over/under picks for all 32 teams. Below are 9 teams, their number, and the reasoning behind my pick. Enjoy!

Teams to bet the over on:

 

Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 

Dallas is back after a disappointing loss last year to the 49ers in the NFC Wild Card Round. Losing 2 key contributors in Amari Cooper and Randy Gregory won’t be easy to replace, but the Cowboys will survive by relying on a committee and new draft picks. Ceedee Lamb and Micah Parsons look to be the new face of America’s Team. Competing in a weak division allowed Dak and Co’ to sweep the NFC East last year and don’t be surprised if they do it again. Playing a lackluster AFC South division should easily propel them above 11 games. Take the over. 

Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 

Last year ended terribly for the Colts. They missed clinching the playoffs due to a loss to the 3-14 Jaguars, which caused them to upgrade quarterbacks with the addition of Matt Ryan. He looks to be the final piece to the offense, complimenting All-Pro Jonathan Taylor and sitting behind Quenton Nelson. The Colts defense improved by adding former DPOY Stephon Gilmore. Overall, the Colts had a successful offseason plugging holes and capitalizing on their strengths. An easy schedule makes me confident in taking the over here. 

Miami Dolphins: 8.5 

Miami was a roller coaster last year. After starting the season 1-7, the club bounced back and rattled off 8 in a row and finished the season just short of playoffs. After a hectic offseason – starting with the abrupt firing of Brian Flores, a blockbuster trade for All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill, and signing Xavien Howard to a 5 yr/$90 million deal, giving him the most money guaranteed for a cornerback ever. The head coaching position has been filled by Mike McDaniels, who has been an offensive-oriented coach for his 17-year career. He’s the mastermind that constructed Deebo Samuel and his 2-way threat. Look for him to implement the same types of play calling and strategy with his new roster. I feel comfortable taking the over. 

New York Jets: 5.5 

I know, betting on the Jets sounds comical but this is the year they make some noise. After a strong draft, the Jets set themselves up with a solid young core led by Zach Wilson. Draft picks Garrett Wilson, Ahmad Gardner, and Jermaine Johnson will be immediate day 1 starters. Free agency is really where the Jets struck gold – snagging 2 tight ends in C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin and upgrading the defense with Jordan Whitehead and Solomon Thomas. In Robert Saleh’s 2nd year, the Jets look to continue to elevate. I’m not saying they’ll win their division by any stretch but with this roster, I’m taking the over and not thinking twice. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.5 

The Steelers have had a lackluster offseason after the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger. However Mike Tomlin has never had a season below .500, so until he does, I’m taking the over. A question at quarterback is hoping to be answered by first-round draft pick, Kenny Pickett. The defense will return just as strong as last year, bringing back DPOY T.J Watt and standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Steelers won’t be an overwhelming team, I just can’t see them losing 10 games under Mike Tomlin and his staff. I’d take the over here. 

Teams to bet the under on:

Baltimore Ravens: 9.5 

The Ravens are an interesting case every year. Lamar Jackson is a consistent MVP candidate, John Harbaugh is an experienced head coach and they always show up on defense. That was until last year when they lost 6 straight to end the season and 6 turnovers in the last 3 games. Where do they go and how can they get better? In a confusing move, they traded Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to Arizona which leaves Rashod Bateman to take over the load of WR1. They had a bad offseason and a confusing draft process. After finishing in last place in the division last year, I can’t see this year being much better. Take the under here. 

Carolina Panthers: 5.5 

Here’s the deal on Carolina – it’s a brutal schedule, Christian McCaffery is injured more often than not, and Sam Darnold. From week 4-7, they play the Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and the Bucs. They don’t have the offensive power to sweep the Atlanta Falcons, which puts them in a brutal position. Matt Rhule hasn’t proved himself and I refuse to buy in on Darnold. Take the under here. 

New York Giants: 7.5 Under

The Giants? 8 wins? They had 2 of the top 7 picks, snagging a stud in DE Kayvon Thibodeaux and OL Evan Neal. They have 5 winnable games playing the Texans, Seahawks, Jaguars, Lions, and Panthers. I don’t see them doing any damage in an already weak NFC East division, possibly stealing a win later in the year. Saquon Barkley hasn’t looked the same since the injury with only 4 touchdowns last year in 13 games. I don’t trust Daniel Jones until he does something meaningful (not including random 90 TD runs). This is an easy pick for me with the under.  

Washington Commanders: 7.5 Under

Another NFC East question mark. The Commanders traded for Carson Wentz (with a $28 million cap hit) resulting in an upgrade at the position but by a slim margin. He’ll have Terry Mclaurin to sling the ball to and J.D. McKissic for the run game. Chase Young returns and Ron Rivera is looking to completely settle in with his 3rd season. It’s hard to imagine this team being consistent enough to get 8 wins even with an easy schedule. This one is a little tricky, but I still feel comfortable taking the under.